Whether you’re taking a hero running back approach, a robust running back strategy, or a zero running back plan, there are values to be had across the board. If the offseason told us anything about running backs, it’s that the NFL values them differently than ever before. Because of that, there are many backfields with question marks and many backfields with a relevant second or third option.
Finding the values at running back and squeezing extra juice out of the position can turn a quality roster into an elite one. Here are some of my favorite picks at the position that are currently being undervalued.
- Consistency Series: QB | RB | WR
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Undervalued RBs Based on ADP
Potential RB1s
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) 47 Overall, RB18
I wrote about Dameon Pierce in my breakout candidates article, but these metrics are worth stating again. Last season, Pierce generated the eighth most yards after contact per rush with 3.28 yards. The most impressive aspect of the performance was that the Texans’ offensive line allowed .8 rushing yards before contact, the lowest mark in the league. Although questions remain around the offensive line, they’ve added talent to the group, and it’s difficult to think they could be any worse. With Pierce’s ability to create yards after contact at the line of scrimmage, I’m confident in his ability to do it downfield if the line can provide more running lanes.
Pierce’s 84.4 PFF rushing grade from last season was 11th highest among running backs, and the rookie was pacing to clear 1,200 rushing yards had he remained healthy for the full season. Devin Singletary is a competent back, but he doesn’t possess the talent that Pierce does, and the Texans passed up opportunities to add bigger names to the backfield. Going as RB18, Pierce is in the range of the dead zone among running backs who are sharing a backfield or haven’t proven the efficiency we’ve seen from Pierce. I like the upside here for the second year back.
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN) 63 Overall, RB24
For all the love and respect Alexander Mattison received as a backup running back, the narrative has shifted in the other direction now that he’s the Vikings starter. This is due, in part, to the perceived fall-off in production last season. Although we didn’t get one of Mattison’s patented big games filling in for Dalvin Cook last season, he finished the season with the 14th-highest PFF rushing grade at 84.2. The idea that Mattison wasn’t very good last year has as much to do with Cook staying healthy as anything.
Mattison is sporting a 22.3% broken tackle rate since 2019, the fifth-highest mark among running backs with 300+ carries in that time. His .96 fantasy points per opportunity last season was 13th best among running backs, yet the fantasy football consensus believes he struggled last year. Now, as Minnesota’s backfield leader, Mattison has nothing but an unproven list of names beneath him on the depth chart. Some analysts believe Mattison should have been able to steal touches away from Cook and make a push for the starting role last year, but the Vikings didn’t move on from Cook and shift to Mattison on a whim. They knew this time was coming, and it’s likely the team was looking to run Cook as much as possible while preserving Mattison for the future. The future is now, and I’ll take my chances on Alexander Mattison.
Mid-Round Steals
James Conner (RB – ARI) 64 Overall, RB25
I get it; it’s not a sexy pick. Truth be told, I’ve never been a James Conner guy going back to his days in Pittsburgh, but the times are changing. In 2021, Conner’s first season with the Cardinals, he finished as the RB7 in points per game before an RB9 PPG finish last year. The easy argument to make against Conner is that Kyler Murray is going to miss a portion, if not all, of the upcoming season. That would be a valid point, except for the fact that Conner was the RB6 in weeks 10 and 11 last season while Murray was on the shelf and again produced RB6 overall numbers without the quarterback in weeks 15-17.
Conner is not the most efficient back, nor will he ever be, and he has dealt with some injuries through the years, but it’s difficult to find a player who is an early down grinder, short yardage/goal line back, who also catches passes out of the backfield. The Cardinals have invested strikingly little in the running back position behind Conner with last year’s sixth-round pick Keaontay Ingram, who has 27 career carries to his name, operating as the RB2. Workhorse-type running backs are an anomaly in the modern NFL, and it’s even more unusual to find them lurking in the sixth round of fantasy drafts.
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) 95 Overall, RB33
Khalil Herbert can currently be found in the discount bin in a crowded backfield in Chicago. While the distribution of touches remains somewhat unpredictable, that is often where we see breakout running backs come from. It’s the unpredictability that leads to a lower sticker price, and even in committee approaches, we often see one backleap his way to the top of the mountain. Herbert, entering his third season in the NFL, is the one mainstay in the Bears backfield, giving him the upper hand over D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson. The current staff got to witness Herbert’s explosiveness last season and benefit from his remarkable efficiency. It’s one reason they opted not to pay David Montgomery this offseason.
Herbert led the entire NFL in yards per attempt last season with 5.67, but what really stood out was his 3.67 yards after contact per attempt. In other words, he wasn’t only taking advantage of what was blocked for him but creating yards after contact. The questions surrounding Herbert come in the form of the passing game. Pass blocking isn’t his calling card, and he’s managed just 153 receiving yards through two seasons, but he’s not incapable, evidenced by his 56-yard touchdown reception in the Bears’ first preseason game. Foreman and Johnson will undoubtedly get a piece of the pie, but as long as Herbert can maintain a sizeable share, there’s no reason he can’t surge into RB1/2 status.
Late-Round Gems
Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT) ADP 166, RB49
The Steelers backup running back has generated plenty of buzz lately with a strong preseason showing, but Jaylen Warren has quietly been the best back on the roster for the last calendar year. While Najee Harris butters his bread with volume, Warren makes his touches count with efficiency. Last season, Warren finished 10th among all running backs in yards per carry with 4.92 and 16th in yards after contact per attempt with 3.08. He was 16th in yards per target with 6.69 and 17th in yards after catch per reception with 8.43 while receiving a PFF receiving grade of 79.8, the third-highest mark among running backs.
He scored on a 62-yard scamper in the Steelers’ second preseason game, showcasing his big play ability, and has taken some early down snaps with the starters this summer. I anticipate Warren’s role to continue growing throughout the season, particularly when the offense needs a big play, an element that’s missing from Harris’ game.
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAC) ADP 169, RB50
One of my favorite running back prospects heading into the NFL Draft, Tank Bigsby, has showcased my reasoning throughout training camp and the preseason. Although it’s unlikely that he overtakes Travis Etienne, I can see a solid tandem forming between the two. Bigsby is certainly capable of doing the dirty work and picking up tough yards, but his pass-catching ability is also an underrated aspect of his game. I was hopeful that the rookie would land in an offense with a path to a three-down role. While that’s not the case in Jacksonville, it’s encouraging to hear Doug Pederson talk highly of him, a coach with a history of utilizing multiple backs. The Jaguars offense is in a position to take a big leap forward this year, and Bigsby appears capable of taking advantage and enjoying some fantasy success.
Serious question: why isn’t Tank Bigsby getting more love?
His 976 rushing yards last season don’t stand out, but 740 of those came after contact. That’s 76% of his rushing yards after contact❗️
Contact balance is one of my biggest green flags for RBs, but that’s not all he has
— Fantasy Football Stoic (@tweetsbychad) April 21, 2023
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- DBro’s Pace & Play Calling Changes & Impact
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1 | WR1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
- The Worst Fantasy Football Team You Could Draft at ADP
- 7 Safest Players to Draft | 5 Riskiest Players to Draft
- 5 High-Floor PPR Draft Targets
- 4 Late-Round Fantasy Football Defenses to Draft
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