Drafts can be won and lost by how well each manager approaches each position, and one of the trickiest positions to nail is the running back. Load up too heavily too early, and you miss out elsewhere. Wait too long to dedicate resources to the position, and you can be scrambling at the waiver wire, getting overly aggressive for the next Salvon Ahmed. This article is looking at running backs who could bust with an ADP of RB24 or later, according to our consensus ADP in PPR formats.
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RB Busts (Fantasy Football 2023)
Rachaad White (RB – TB) – RB25
Tampa Bay is going through a dramatic shift in fortunes after the last couple of exciting years under Tom Brady. Now they find themselves back in quarterback purgatory, hoping that Baker Mayfield can perform as he did in his Rams debut, where he was feeling dangerous, compared to the plethora of games he’s played in with many unpressured roll-outs from the pocket, followed by a throw into a wide open defenders arms.
The offensive line looked set to bounce back after an injury-hit year. However, the retirement of former pro-bowl center Ryan Jensen has plunged them back into complications in the interior. If there’s one thing Mayfield needs to succeed, it’s a sturdy offensive line. The reason that the Bucs have been left with such poor quarterback choices is that they sold it all to chase a ring, and while it worked out, now they have to deal with the salary cap repercussions. One of those repercussions is that the team hasn’t decided to pour any more resources into the running back room, leaving only Rachaad White as a presumed workhorse. However, when we presume total volume for one player who hasn’t earned it, they often disappoint.
White was a good pass-catcher in 2022, with the third-highest catch rate among all running backs who had 50 or more receptions, but it’s fair to consider how much of that was down to Tom Brady’s brilliance rather than what White was doing. In the ground game, White left much to be desired, ranking 140th in Expected Points Added and 51st in Juke Rate among running backs with 50 attempts or more. White might not have much competition to deal with, but it might not make him worth his cost in ADP.
You know who is one RB I think could lose their job easily this year?
Rachaad White.
— Sean Mitchell (@smitchell17) August 31, 2023
Javonte Williams (DEN – RB) – RB27
The Broncos and Sean Payton have been happy to tell anyone and everyone that Javonte Williams is ahead of schedule at every opportunity. However, when you dig into the team’s actions this offseason, there is a slow and steady trickle of indications that they don’t want or expect Williams to be a workhorse. Way back in free agency, they sought Samaje Perine as a priority free agent, to the extent that Sean Payton made a personal pitch to Perine about his favorability to use a two-back system, followed by the Broncos matching the offer the Bengals had presented Perine.
In recent weeks, rumors have swirled that the Broncos checked in with Indianapolis about the situation regarding Jonathan Taylor. Perhaps they were just doing their due diligence, but if you truly believe in Williams, you probably worry about a running back you’d have to pay north of $16m per year. Anyone who drafted JK Dobbins last year will tell you that the recovery from a multi-ligament injury can have some hiccups. While each player is different, it’s fair not to get carried away and consider what Williams’ upside might look like in an offense that could very well be a mess and often be needing to pass more than run.
The Colts have rejected the Dolphins' trade offer for Jonathan Taylor per @flasportsbuzz.
The Bears and Broncos are also interested while Miami will continue to try to make a deal. pic.twitter.com/Zd7NIT2yuA
— PFF (@PFF) August 25, 2023
D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI) – RB30
Sometimes, it gets difficult to detangle yourself from the electric flashes and excitement a player can offer at one point during their career, but take luck as a curse in fantasy football, and it might just be coming for those who overvalue D’Andre Swift this year. While the Colts might be trying to overplay their hand by asking for Jaylen Waddle in exchange for Jonathan Taylor, the Lions couldn’t find a single team willing to give up more than a 2025 fourth-round pick for D’Andre Swift, who had failed to win the trust of his coaches in the Motor City.
Swift’s upside is linked to his pass-catching ability, and while the Eagles might throw to running backs slightly more in 2023, coming from a place where they did 12.1% of the time in 2022, a leaguewide low, you have to wonder how much that increase is likely to be. Further to Swift’s woes, it says an awful lot about him as a player that through training camp this summer, he hasn’t been able to separate himself from Kenneth Gainwell, who has been nobody’s idea of a league-winner. RB30 might feel cheap for a player who once flashed, but it’s still not cheap enough.
me every year with D’Andre Swift pic.twitter.com/PjHwgajnwG
— Godfather League ♛ (@godfatherleague) August 31, 2023
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – NE) – RB40
Another running back falling upon hard times is the former All-Pro, Ezekiel Elliott, who spent much of this offseason waiting for the phone to ring before eventually taking the Patriots’ best offer. Perhaps Elliott has some upside if anything were to happen to Rhamondre Stevenson. But in 2022, Elliott looked firmly washed, setting career lows in yards per carry (3.9) and yards per route run (0.10), along with his fewest top-12 weekly finishes (5). Elliott isn’t in New England to take Rhamondre Stevenson’s work; he’s there to pass him a cup of Gatorade and occasionally spell him for a few snaps. If Elliott was faced with a Salvation Army novelty bucket in 2023, it’s unlikely he’d manage to leap in. For redraft, there are better, more youthful picks to be had.
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