Here are a few of the players I’m targeting in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Upgrade to our premium subscription to view my full list of 2023 must-have draft targets.
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Fantasy Football Draft Players to Target
In his six games played with wide receiver Rashod Bateman last year – a talented healthy WR – Lamar Jackson averaged nearly 27 fantasy points, 2.1 passing TDs and 208 passing yards per game. That per-game average would have ranked first over the last two seasons.
But without Bateman or any decent WRs? Just 17 fantasy points, 0.67 passing TDs and 165 passing yards per game. Looking ahead to 2023 with a healthy Bateman plus the additions of veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and first-rounder Zay Flowers, Jackson looks primed to return to his fantasy MVP form. I love his betting odds to win the league’s real MVP award.
With rushing still part of Jackson’s game – 69.5 rushing yards per healthy game in 2022 – second to only Justin Fields – he looks like a steal as the QB4 outside the first “elite” tier of QBs.
Jackson was PFF’s highest-graded passer throwing from 10-19 yards downfield in 2022, which tends to be an extremely sticky stat and an indicator of future success at the QB position. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken is also sure to bring in a more pass-happy approach based on his experience in the NFL. Back in 2018 as a play-caller with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monken called an offense that ranked fourth in pass-play rate on early downs and first in passing yards.
As one of the league’s premier pure rushers, Nick Chubb quietly amassed an impressive 1,525 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry again) and 13 touchdowns in 2022, finishing as the RB6 overall with a top 10 backfield opportunity share (64%). From Weeks 1-12, he was the RB4 overall and in points per game. However, his production tailed off towards the end of the season with the return of Deshaun Watson to the lineup, dropping him to RB23 overall in Weeks 13-17.
However, with Watson expected to raise the ceiling of the Browns’ offense with a full offseason back to football, Chubb’s fantasy production should remain more consistent throughout the 2023 season, making him a near-bust-proof draft pick. Last season alone, Chubb was just one of 3 running backs to finish inside the top-36 in every single game (Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler).
Chubb is currently the betting market’s favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +600 odds per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Additionally, with the departure of running backs Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson, Chubb could see an increase in opportunities in the receiving game. He demonstrated his ability in this area with a strong Week 18 performance, playing a season-high 75% snap share, running a route on 71% of dropbacks, and catching five-of-six targets (22% target share) for 45 yards. Chubb finished Week 18 as the RB1 overall.
Unproven 2022 fifth-rounder Jerome Ford is currently pegged as the No. 2 RB.
Nick Chubb RB5 ADP
CHUBB CLUB ?
Chubb quietly amassed an impressive 1,525 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry again) and 13 touchdowns in 2022…
Finishing as the RB6 overall with a top 10 backfield opportunity share (64%).
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 6, 2023
Marvin Jones‘ usage can provide us an idea of how the Jaguars will deploy their three top WRs in 2023, between Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley. Jones ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks and led the Jaguars in deep targets (18) in 2022. He only caught three of them. All three players will be full-time starters in three WR sets, with Ridley providing a much-improved upgrade as a deep/red-zone threat.
Let’s not forget that the last time we saw Ridley suit up, he was borderline elite at commanding targets. As the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver, he owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5). He’s being drafted as a fantasy WR2 with easy fantasy WR1 upside, just two years removed from a 90-1374-9 2020 campaign.
Not to mention, Per FantasyPros’ Strength of Schedule Tool, the Jaguars boast the No. 1 SOS for fantasy quarterbacks and fantasy WRs. The 2023 calendar is great for quarterback Trevor Lawrence and co. to take another leap in Year 3.
By far, my favorite tight end to draft in this range is Darren Waller. He is my No. 3-ranked tight end. Because becoming the No. 1 pass-catching option for a team as tight end is a rare feat. There’s only a handful of teams that feature such a player, with the Giants being the newest to join the list after their acquisition of the ex-Raiders tight end.
The 6-foot-6 pass-catcher came to Big Blue in exchange for a third-round pick, and he immediately should step in as the clear-cut No. 1 target for Daniel Jones. That was not the case for Waller last year, as he was fighting for targets with alpha Davante Adams. But Waller showed that when he was healthy that he could still deliver, ranking second in the NFL in yards per reception (13.9) and 10th in yards per route run. He also posted the second-highest rate of top-6 finishes (38%).
Waller “the baller” still has plenty left in the tank and should be viewed as a clear-cut winner post-trade.
He has the chance to replicate his 2021 numbers when he was the No. 1 receiver in his offense, posting top-5 fantasy tight end numbers. And better yet, Daniel Bellinger‘s elite usage/route participation from last season in the Brian Daboll offense as an every-snap player – 80 percent-plus snap share in six of the last seven games – suggests that Waller won’t leave the field. That will make it much easier for the TE7 in ADP to crest elite fantasy tight-end status.
More Expert Analysis
Perfect Drafts
Fantasy Draft Cheat Sheets
- Fitz’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
- Erickson’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
- DBro’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Round-By-Round Draft Strategy
- DBro’s How to Approach Early Rounds
- DBro’s How to Approach Middle Rounds
- DBro’s How to Approach Late Rounds
- Erickson’s Strategy for Early Snake Draft Picks
- Erickson’s Strategy for Middle Snake Draft Picks
- Erickson’s Strategy for Late Snake Draft Picks
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