4 Draft Picks the Experts Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Preseason is fun, but we’re ready for the good stuff. Another week or so of fantasy drafts, and then we’ll be watching NFL games that count.

As we enter the home stretch of fantasy draft season, FantasyPros analysts Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice continue a series of preseason roundtables by discussing players in whom they’ve gained or lost confidence over the last month, how to handle the Buccaneers’ top fantasy performers, favorite late-round targets and more. Here’s the full article, and below we dive into one of the sections.

Which player have you lost the most confidence in based on the preseason? Who do you feel much less comfortable drafting now than you did a month ago?

Pat Fitzmaurice: I see the Jacksonville backfield situation differently than Erickson does, and I can’t help but be less enthusiastic about Travis Etienne than I was earlier this summer. The Jaguars spent a third-round draft pick on Auburn RB Tank Bigsby. They gave Bigsby a significant number of snaps with the starters during the preseason, and Bigsby looked good (aside from that lost fumble). There’s a chance the Jaguars make Bigsby their primary goal-line back and give him some early-down work, and the Jags also seem inclined to use JaMycal Hasty on obvious passing downs. If Etienne isn’t getting goal-line work and isn’t catching many passes, it’s going to be hard for him to return a profit on a Round 3 or Round 4 investment.

Derek Brown: There hasn’t been one poor report regarding his injury recovery, but I have to be realistic about Breece Hall‘s outlook with Dalvin Cook in town. Hall won’t have to be rushed back or leaned on heavily early with Cook on the roster. This isn’t to say I’ve lost all hope on Hall, as I have him ranked as a midrange RB2, but that’s a far cry from my low-end RB1/high-end RB2 ranking of earlier this offseason. Cook might not be at the peak of his powers anymore, but he still ranked 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 12th in yards after contact per attempt last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Cook will eat into Hall’s ceiling.

Andrew Erickson: The low-hanging fruit is RB Najee Harris. Even though I think he’s a solid value pick when he falls into Round 4, I can’t help but feel gross taking him with a split imminent alongside Jaylen Warren. Harris has out-snapped Warren just 16-12 (57% vs. 43%) on 28 snaps from the first-team offense during the Steelers’ three exhibition contests. It doesn’t help that the Steelers will play the 49ers’ stout run defense in Week 1. But the guy I want to bring up is rookie WR Quentin Johnston. Despite his Round 1 accolades, Johnston is viewed as the WR4 on the depth chart. His preseason and training camp have been very boom-or-bust, which aligns with my scouting profile of him. I think he’s a firm tier behind the three other first-round WRs, and managers need to practice patience should they invest a draft pick in QJ.