2023 Fantasy Football Studs & Duds
Each year during the fantasy football season, there are players who outperform their average draft position (ADP) and underperform, leaving us with plenty to chew on entering the following week. The 2023 NFL season has officially kicked off, with 15 of 16 games in the books. There were quite a few surprises on both ends of the spectrum, which we like to refer to as “Studs” and “Duds” in the context of this article.
Every fantasy manager is overreacting to their players right now, whether it was a strong outing or a goose egg, but we’re here to reflect on what just took place on the gridiron in Week 1 with a look ahead to their usage in upcoming matchups. Here, a few of the best and worst performances from surprise players will be analyzed, with plenty of fantasy advice offered to make the best lineup decisions possible.
Please note, this article is referencing half PPR formats for scoring output. With that said, let’s dive right into the first Studs & Duds article of the 2023 fantasy football season!
Want to read about only your players? Sync your team (free) to get My Primer
Studs
Jordan Love (QB – Packers)
The new era in Green Bay is off to a hot start behind Jordan Love. He joined Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Dolphins) and Mac Jones (QB – Patriots) as the only quarterback to throw for three touchdowns, winding up as the QB3 with a big win on the road. Chicago’s defense, all due respect, finished 32nd in 2022, so despite the hot start, which saw Love go 15-27-245 as a passer, with three touchdowns and an interception, we may see more run-centric play calling against better defenses. The return of Christian Watson (WR – Packers) could make Love an every-week starter/fringe QB1, but a Week 2 road trip against an improved Atlanta defense is less than ideal for Love’s ceiling in fantasy lineups.
Jakobi Meyers (WR – Raiders)
Las Vegas immediately made use of its offseason trade for wideout Jakobi Meyers, feeding him a 38.5 percent target share, which was higher than Davante Adams (WR – Raiders). Meyers wound up hauling in nine of ten targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns, surging up fantasy leaderboards with 24.6 points. It helped the Raiders extend their win streak against Denver on the road, so expect former Patriots OC and current Raiders head coach, Josh McDaniels, to continue featuring him within the offense. WR3 with WR2 upside moving forward.
Puka Nacua (WR – Rams)
The offseason hype surrounding rookie wideout Puka Nacua is now in full force after he dominated Seattle’s secondary with a ridiculous 40.5 percent target share. Nacua hauled in 10 of 15 targets for 119 yards and despite not finding the end zone, the rookie finished as the WR8. Matthew Stafford (QB – Rams) is still a high-caliber quarterback but it feels like we wrote him off a bit too early. Nacua is a WR4 with WR3/Flex upside moving forward in a young wide receiving corps.
Tyler Allgeier (RB – Falcons)
While Bijan Robinson (RB – Falcons) dazzled in his rookie debut, it was second-year running back Tyler Allgeier who stole the production with 57 percent of the rushing share, while playing 29 snaps, compared to Robinson’s 33. Clearly, head coach Arthur Smith and the Falcons want to establish the run with their highly paid offensive line, which diminishes passing game assets like Drake London (WR – Falcons) and Kyle Pitts (TE – Falcons). Allgeier should be treated as a mid-range RB2 with upside moving forward.
Kyren Williams (RB – Rams)
Cam Akers (RB – Rams) saw Kyren Williams handle nearly double the snap percentage, while also garnering all running back targets from Stafford. Williams was drafted in the fifth round of the 2022 draft out of Notre Dame and performed well against a rush defense that ranked bottom-three in 2022. The Rams are a difficult team to evaluate, but Williams appears to have gained a bigger role in Year 2, so treat him as an RB3 in a difficult Week 2 matchup against San Francisco.
Hayden Hurst (TE – Panthers)
Rookie Bryce Young (QB – Panthers) distributed the ball nicely in his debut despite the road loss to Atlanta, with most of the targets going to newly acquired tight end Hayden Hurst. Hurst saw a 22.6 percent target share, hauling in five of seven targets for 41 yards and the Panthers’ only touchdown. Expect this veteran to continue operating as a safety valve for Young against the Saints in another divisional matchup at home in Week 2, making Hurst a top-six fantasy tight end.
Duds
Lamar Jackson (QB – Ravens)
Baltimore won an ugly game at home against Houston, relying on its running backs to score all of its touchdowns. The loss of J.K. Dobbins (RB – Ravens) yet again will likely propel Jackson into a bigger running role, despite the contract extension this offseason, so don’t temper expectations for the 2019 MVP. Jackson gets the Bengals on the road in Week 2, where he should remain locked in as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Josh Jacobs (RB – Raiders)
Despite handling 19 carries, Josh Jacobs only hit 48 rushing yards, adding two receptions on three targets for an additional 23 receiving yards. It was much less stellar than the performances seen from the Raiders’ star RB1 in 2022 and it doesn’t get any easier on the road in Buffalo for Week 2. Jacobs won’t be this bad twice in a row, despite a tough matchup, so plug him in as a low-end RB1 against the Bills.
Joe Mixon (RB – Bengals)
We saw big spike weeks from Joe Mixon in 2022, so hopefully, there’s more top-ten weeks ahead for the Bengals’ RB1. It was a terrible start against a talented Cleveland defensive line and it stays difficult against the Ravens in Week 2. If you used high draft capital to get Mixon, you’ve got to keep him in starting lineups, as the Bengals showed us their absolute floor with a listless outing against the Browns in Week 1. Mixon is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside for Week 2.
Marquise Brown (WR – Cardinals)
Marquise Brown saw a team-high five targets against Washington, securing three receptions for 28 yards. With 5.6 average yards per target, combined with newcomer Josh Dobbs (QB – Cardinals) learning the offense as QB1, Brown’s outlook is far from promising. A better matchup against the New York Giants defense awaits in Week 2. Brown, who was outsnapped by third-round rookie wideout Michael Wilson (WR – Cardinals) in Week 1, still led the Cardinals wideouts with a 16.7 percent target share. Treat Brown as a full PPR Flex option for Week 2.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – Bengals)
Widely taken as the No. 2 overall player during fantasy drafts this offseason, star wideout Ja’Marr Chase fell victim to the Browns’ smothering defense in Week 1. No need to panic, Chase will be fine, getting a matchup against the Ravens, which is a team he posted a 9-84-1 stat line against during the AFC Wild Card round. Joe Burrow (QB – Bengals) and head coach Zac Taylor will scheme up a better game plan at home against the Ravens, who were letting the Texans move between the 20’s, so keep Chase valued as a top fantasy wide receiver moving forward.
Darren Waller (TE – Giants)
Brought in to be the alpha target hound for Daniel Jones (QB – Giants), who just inked an extension this offseason, Darren Waller and the Giants all were snuffed against the Dallas Cowboys defense in prime time during Week 1. Waller still commanded the most targets for the Giants alongside wideout Darius Slayton (WR – Giants), recording three receptions for 36 yards. It’s a bit shocking, considering how badly the Giants were behind, but a Week 2 road trip against the Cardinals, who were among the worst defenses against tight ends in 2022, could see Waller explode with fantasy production. He’s a top-three tight end for Week 2.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.