Our analysts have put together fantasy football outlooks for all fantasy-relevant players. You can find them on our player pages and via our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These will be updated throughout the preseason to help you navigate your fantasy football drafts utilizing our bevy of tools, including our FREE draft simulator and cheat sheet creator. We’ll cover players in different groups to help you identify those to target and others to avoid. Let’s take a look at our predictions for 2023’s crop of second-year players.
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Fantasy Football Second-Year Player Predictions
Here are 2023 fantasy football outlooks for second-year players.
The first quarterback taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, Kenny Pickett had mixed results in his rookie season, averaging 184.9 passing yards per game and 6.2 yards per attempt, and throwing more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7). Pickett did get less interception-prone and sack-prone as the season went on, and he guided the Steelers to victory in his final three starts. We should probably expect more below-average passing numbers from Pickett in 2023, but he offers value as a runner, having run for 237 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Sam Howell rode the bench for the first 16 games of his rookie year before the Commanders gave him a Week 18 start. Howell was functional if unspectacular, completing 11-of-19 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 26-6 win over Dallas. Commanders head coach Ron Rivera says Howell has a chance to open the 2023 season as Washington’s starting quarterback. A fifth-round draft pick in 2022, Howell had strong freshman and sophomore seasons at the University of North Carolina before regressing somewhat in his third and final year. Howell doesn’t have exceptional arm talent, but his above-average mobility could boost his fantasy value.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Tyler Allgeier enjoyed an extremely successful rookie season, finishing the year as PFF’s No.1-graded rookie running back (86.7) ahead of stars like Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall. That accomplishment puts Allgeier into an elite company with RBs such as Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara and Rhamondre Stevenson – all who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons after taking home the crown as PFF’s highest-graded rookie RB in their first years. Allgeier’s strong finish was the driving force behind his final standing – 6th among all RBs in rushing EPA – as the team unleashed him from Week 13 onward. He was the RB11 in half-point scoring points per game averaging 17.8 carries and 96 rushing yards per game. Alas, Allgeier’s accomplishments were all for naught as his fantasy value was immediately vaporized after the team decided to draft Bijan Robinson 8th overall. It puts Allgeier into straight backup duties, where he likely will have no fantasy value without a Robinson injury. At least fantasy managers and zero-RB zealots can be assured that Allgeier will produce if/when called upon based on his rookie-year accolades.
-Andrew Erickson
James Cook was used in a limited fashion during his rookie season, topping out at just a 56% snap share in Week 18 versus the Patriots. However, it should be noted that Cook forced a 60-40 split from Week 13 onward with veteran Devin Singletary. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team’s final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season’s totality capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). He earned PFF’s No. 1 ranking in breakaway run rate (44%). The spurts of explosiveness and receiving ability will work in Cook’s favor as he enters Year 2 with the potential to emerge as Buffalo’s Day 1 starter, with Damien Harris as his main competition.
-Andrew Erickson
The Houston Texans looked like they struck gold with Dameon Pierce early on during the season, as the rookie running back looked like the early favorite to take home offensive rookie of the year honors with a hot start. Pierce stepped in and immediately became the team’s bellcow in Week 2. From that time until Week 10, Pierce ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards (739) averaging north of 19 carries and 92 rushing yards per game. He was the fantasy RB12 overall and in points per game. Other Texans RBs combined for just 11 carries versus Pierce’s 154 over this stretch. However, the Florida product seemed to have hit a wall in the middle of the year totaling just 16 rushing yards against Washington and Miami through Weeks 11-12. However, these two defenses would turn out to be some of the tougher matchups for all RBs, so that’s likely the cause of Pierce’s fall-off in production. The tackle-breaking machine more than proved that he still had juice left in the tank with two strong outings to conclude his season versus Dallas and Cleveland. However, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury that would knock him out for the rest of the season – just 61 yards away from 1,000 rushing yards on the year. Despite the missed games, he still finished 4th in missed tackles forced and 1st in missed tackles forced per attempt (28%) among RBs with at least 100 carries. Pierce should lead the Texans backfield in 2023, but an entirely new coaching staff and Pierce’s 4th-round draft capital suggest that his undisputed workhorse role could change. Devin Singletary signed a one-year deal worth $3.75 million with the Texans, presumably to fill the role of Pierce’s primary backup. Singletary totaled just nine more carries than James Cook from Weeks 13-Week 20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce).
-Andrew Erickson
Isiah Pacheco‘s outstanding season as a 2022 7th-round pick should not be understated. From Week 10 through Week 17 (when Pacheco cemented himself as the team’s starter), the former Rutgers running back was the RB21 in points per game and ranked sixth in total rushing yards. Both he and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 scoring RBs over this stretch, but Pacheco kicked his performance into high gear as the Chiefs made their postseason run. He averaged 13 touches for 65 rushing yards to McKinnon’s seven touches per game. The aggressive runner capped off his rookie campaign with an impressive Super Bowl outing (15-76-1) that helped clinch victory for Kansas City. Even as a 7th-round pick, Pacheco should be viewed as the early-down starter for KC as he heads into Year 2, with room for his role to grow should he see his pass-game usage expanded. His six-catch game versus the Bengals in the conference championship suggests a boosted receiving role is firmly in his range of outcomes.
-Andrew Erickson
There’s no denying that Breece Hall possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL after a stellar rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by a torn ACL. The Jets’ first-year running back was the RB6 in half-PPR points per game in just seven games played (15.4). He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13) before his season-ending knee injury. Hall also ranked fourth in RB receiving yards while posting an elite 34.4% target rate per route run. The only hesitance with drafting Hall stems from his October ACL injury that can keep guys off the field for nine to 12 months. Although the latest reports suggest that Hall is progressing faster than expected and the team believes he could be ready for training camp. Just do whatever you can to get this guy on your fantasy team.
-Andrew Erickson
Kenneth Walker III stood as the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny was placed on IR with a season-ending injury. The rookie was the RB9 in points per game. If you remove the two games, he missed due to injury (Weeks 13/14) he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the RB8 in points per game. Walker’s late ADP last season made him a draft-day steal.
We all knew that Rashaad Penny was never going to be “the guy” for the long run based on his injury track record and that Walker would likely take over RB1 duties as an uber-talented second-round pick. He did just that and got absolutely FED after returning from a late-season ankle injury. Walker was either consistently playing 70 percent-plus snaps or carrying the ball 23-plus times. And at times, we even saw Walker earn targets while leading the backfield in routes run.
But overall, he underwhelmed as a receiver as he did at the college level. And his tendency to look for home runs rushes resulted in a rushing success rate that ranked second-to-last (31.4%) among rushers with at least 100 carries in 2022. He also missed games because of injuries.
And his path to RB1 upside will be that much tougher to realize after the team added Zach Charbonnet in the second round of this year’s draft. Charbonnet posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs.
The rookie Seahawk can’t deliver explosive rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently. That’s concerning for those hoping Walker was stepping into a workhorse role this season, which was very appealing about his fantasy profile last year.
-Andrew Erickson
Rachaad White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Leonard Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers’ backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26). He wasn’t great as a rusher – four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade – but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa’s patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was still better than Fournette on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13). And there was no better display of White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just 5 times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). White’s superior season and proficiency as a receiver (50 receptions, 11th among all RBs) solidify him as the RB1 moving forward. Tampa Bay released Fournette, signed Chase Edmonds in free agency and added Sean Tucker as an undrafted free agent.
-Andrew Erickson
Brian Robinson Jr. took little time getting adjusted to NFL bellcow duties after missing the first four games of his NFL career after suffering gunshot wounds in August. From Week 6 onward, B-Rob averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game (RB34). But the points per game hardly depict Robinson’s rookie campaign because he was getting fed with volume. He ranked fourth in carries (17.8 per game) and averaged over 70 rushing yards per game as PFF’s ninth-highest-graded running back (82.1). The Commanders running back’s lack of receiving usage – just 9 catches for 60 yards on a 6% target share – and lack of TDs was the reason for his underwhelming fantasy box scores. And although his receiving usage likely won’t change too dramatically with Antonio Gibson back under contract in 2023, I’d fully expect him to experience positive TD regression. Robinson finishes the fantasy regular season 13th in carries, but with just two rushing TDs. His 14 carries from inside the 10-yard line were the most of any player to score fewer than three rushing TDs.
-Andrew Erickson
Drake London excelled in his rookie season, although fantasy gamers were not elated with his WR43 finish. If we look deeper than the raw counting stats, London’s future is incredibly bright. If earning targets is a skill (it is), then London proved to be among the league’s elite. He ranked 22nd in raw target volume last year (117) with the fifth-highest target share (29.4%) and second-highest target per route run rate (32.4%) among wide receivers. London also blazed in efficiency stats ranking 16th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), tenth in PFF receiving grade, and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). London gave a glimpse into his 2023 upside down the stretch last season. In Weeks 13-18, he was the WR20 in fantasy, even though he failed to score a touchdown in this span. London is a target vacuuming WR2 with WR1 upside in 2023.
-Derek Brown
Don’t lose faith in Jameson Williams. Despite his six-game suspension, Williams remains an extremely talented wide receiver entering his sophomore season with a mountain of upside. Williams was placed in bubble wrap in 2022 by the Detroit Lions, who valued being careful with their blazing-fast rookie coming off a major injury (ACL tear). Assuming Williams is good to go for 2023, he’s still the same player that ranked 13th in yards per route run among all FBS wide receivers in 2021 (minimum 50 targets). Williams could be the number two option in this passing attack when he returns behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams is a WR4 that could crush his ADP in 2023.
-Derek Brown
Christian Watson was the talk of the town after blowing up the Senior Bowl and combine last year. Worries about Watson began to mount for many in camp and during the early part of the season as he dealt with nagging injuries. Once healthy, Watson proved that the cream does rise to the top. He emerged as the Packers’ clear number-one wideout. Watson ranked 14th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), 12th in yards per route run, and third in fantasy points per route run. He was fourth in YAC per reception behind only Deebo Samuel, Rondale Moore, and Jaylen Waddle (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Watson is a strong WR2 that has huge WR1 upside.
-Derek Brown
My Skyy Moore love fell on its face last year as Andy Reid stuck him in a limited role for the 2022 season. Moore didn’t log a single game in the regular season with 50% or higher snaps. While consensus would love the label Moore as a terrible player, that isn’t true. Last year among 115 wide receivers with at least 30 targets (per PFF), Moore ranked 50th in receiving grade, 49th in yards per route run, and sixth in YAC per reception. Outside of his YAC numbers, I understand that the other metrics aren’t eye-popping, but they are nowhere near wretched. With increased playing time in his second season, Moore can still capture the high-end ceiling I hoped for last year tied to Patrick Mahomes. Take him late in drafts as a stash, and hold on your bench. If Moore hits this year, he could be one of the best values in fantasy.
-Derek Brown
Chris Olave had a magnificent rookie season as a target vacuuming wide receiver with alpha potential. Olave finished as the WR25 in fantasy points per game, which doesn’t do any justice to his sparkling efficiency metrics. Olave was 15th in target share (26.7%), third in air yard share (40.8%), and tenth in target per route run rate (29.3%). He was seventh in open rate (ESPN analytics), immediately behind Stefon Diggs, and tenth in yards per route run. With Michael Thomas back, Olave will fight Thomas tooth and nail for the WR1 role in this offense. If he can improve on his 11 red zone targets (40th) and four total touchdowns (37th), he could easily finish as a WR1 in 2023.
-Derek Brown
Garrett Wilson had a fantastic rookie season, underscored by his WR30 finish in fantasy points per game. Wilson was ninth in PFF receiving grade, 23rd in YAC per reception, and 25th in yards per route run (per PFF minimum 50 targets). Wilson was also 14th in receiving yards (1,103), 16th in receptions (83), and ninth in red zone targets. If his quarterback play improves in 2023, the sky is the limit. Wilson had to suffer through the sixth-most unrealized air yards, 93rd-ranked target quality, and 92nd-ranked catchable target rate. Wilson should be viewed as a WR2 with WR1 upside in 2023.
-Derek Brown
Pickens had some standout moments in his rookie season, including highlight-reel catches and shadow realm run blocking reps. Still, overall if you were banking on him to be a major fantasy producer, you were probably disappointed. Pickens logged six weeks with top-24 fantasy finishes, but outside of those weeks, he was unstartable with also eight weeks of WR50 or lower fantasy production. With Allen Robinson on the roster, expect the Steelers to utilize three wide receiver sets heavily. In Weeks 1-8, with the team heavily deploying 11 personnel, Pickens had a 15.1% target share, a 26% air yard share, and 1.19 yards per route run. He barely eclipsed a 15% target per route run rate. Pickens is a WR4/5 that could be the fourth option in a Kenny Pickett-led passing attack.
-Derek Brown
Dotson’s overall rookie season numbers don’t jump off the page. He was the WR38 in fantasy with a 15.9% target share (56th), a 24% air yard share, and 1.50 yards per route run (50th). All of these figures paint an inaccurate picture of his true upside. After he returned from injury, the season’s final five games offered a clearer view of what a breakout sophomore season for Dotson could look like. In Weeks 13-18 of last season, Dotson ranked 20th in target share (24%), third in end zone target share (50%), 17th in weighted opportunity, and 13th in yards per route run. Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett at the helm in 2023 doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but Dotson is a skilled wide receiver well-versed from his college days in dealing with pitiful quarterback play. Dotson is a WR4/5 that could take a huge leap in his second season. I won’t rule out him giving Terry McLaurin a run for his money for the team lead in targets this season. Investing in talented second-year wide receivers are strong bets to make.
-Derek Brown
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