Our analysts have put together fantasy football outlooks for all fantasy-relevant players. You can find them on our player pages and via our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These will be updated throughout the preseason to help you navigate your fantasy football drafts utilizing our bevy of tools, including our FREE draft simulator and cheat sheet creator. We’ll cover players in different groups to help you identify those to target and others to avoid. Let’s take a look at predictions for players on new teams entering the 2023 NFL season.
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Players on New Teams to Target or Avoid
Here are 2023 fantasy football outlooks for players on new teams.
It will be strange to see Aaron Rodgers wearing a different shade of green now that he’s moved from the Packers to the Jets. The 39-year-old Rodgers still makes some dazzling throws, but he experienced some statistical slippage in 2022. He threw only 26 TD passes, and his 12 interceptions were the most he’d thrown in a season since 2008. He averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark of his 15 years as a starter. Rodgers’ days as a QB1 may be over. He finished QB13 in fantasy scoring last season, but he was QB21 in fantasy points per game among QBs who played at least 10 games. Don’t make the mistake of buying Rodgers based solely on the name brand. It’s possible the change of venue will rekindle interest in Favre, but the Jets’ defense is one of the best in the league, so Rodgers isn’t going to be involved in a lot of shootouts and may end up being a glorified game manager in 2023.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
The nine-year veteran is now on the Saints and will be suiting up for a team other than the Silver and Black for the first time in his career. There were some concerning signs of slippage for Carr in 2022. His interception rate (2.8%) was the highest of his career, and his completion percentage (60.8%) was the lowest since his rookie year. He averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, a five-year low. Carr doesn’t add rushing value, so his fantasy value will depend on his ability to rebound from a down year as a passer.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Jimmy Garoppolo was averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game through the first 12 weeks of the 2022 season before breaking his foot in a Week 13 game against the Dolphins. The injury ended Garoppolo’s season and ended his time with the 49ers. Now Garoppolo is replacing Derek Carr as the starting quarterback for the Raiders. He isn’t going to be a high-volume passer in Las Vegas, and he adds minimal rushing value, so at best Garoppolo will be a lower-end QB2 in fantasy this year. But Garoppolo is an underrated passer who’s completed better than 67% of his passes in each of the last four seasons and has a career YPA of 8.3 yards. He’s no fantasy savior, but he has at least modest value in redraft leagues.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
2022 was another year of ultimate teasing by D’Andre Swift. The Lions running back came out of the gates red hot, but got hurt. And when he returned, the Lions refused to give him the featured role in the backfield, opting to use Jamaal Williams as their goal-line battering ram instead.
Swift was still uber-efficient on a per-touch basis – fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt – but the lack of touchdowns and overall touches was soul-crushing. Swift seemed to never be 100% healthy at any point during the year, which likely influenced his reduced role. And Detroit’s lack of willingness to get Swift involved was a sign of things to come as they would eventually trade him to the Philadelphia Eagles for a future Day 3 pick.
With a full bill of health heading into 2023, Swift will again be productive on a per-touch basis in his new offense. But be warned that his injury history and draft capital spent on Swift guarantees him nothing under a new coaching staff in Philadelphia. Fantasy managers should also be aware that Swift and fellow newcomer Rashaad Penny are both solid rushers, posting identical success rates last season.
Swift also won’t be used as often in the passing game, after the Eagles finished dead last in RB target share last season (12.1%) and total RB targets.
-Andrew Erickson
Miles Sanders signed with the Carolina Panthers reuniting him with many familiar faces from his days with the Philadelphia Eagles. Duce Staley (former Eagles RB coach), Frank Reich (former Eagles coach) and Josh McCown (former Eagles QB) have all seen what Sanders can do, and that surely played a part in bringing him on as the team’s 1-for-1 replacement for new Chicago Bears running back D’Onta Foreman. At a minimum, Sanders will operate as the main back on early downs, while Chuba Hubbard (RB62) and Raheem Blackshear split work on third downs. But I say at a minimum because those guys still have to prove themselves to the new coaching staff to earn substantial roles. Sanders has already proven his worth with these coaches before. And last year he showed everyone what he was capable of when he finished as the RB10 in half-point scoring overall/RB13 in points per game from Weeks 1-17. He ended the year averaging just south of five yards per carry and scored 13 rushing TDs after scoring zero in 2021. His carries inside the 10-yard line ranked inside the top five among all RBs.
And when Sanders saw his best-receiving usage to date – 50 receptions for 509 yards as a rookie in 2019 – it was under Staley’s tenure.
With Sanders’ uber-efficient rushing running behind an offensive line that finished 9th in adjusted line yards in 2022, Carolina is a great landing spot for him. His rushing alone should earn him production similar to what we saw from Foreman after the team traded away Christian McCaffrey. From Week 7 onward, Foreman sat as the RB21 in total points and RB22 in points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in total rushing yards (852). But his path to back-end RB2 status was not consistent whatsoever. Foreman rushed for over 110 yards in half of the last ten games, while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of his others. His inconsistency was due to a lack of pass-game work causing him to be completely phased out of games that Carolina was out-matched in. But, I don’t think that will necessarily be the case for Sanders. The former Eagle has the chance to be a full-blown workhorse with an expanded receiving role based on the four-year, $25 million ($13 million guaranteed) commitment from his new team.
-Andrew Erickson
David Montgomery signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions this offseason, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. In Montgomery’s 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. But in 11 games, he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery saw an even bigger decline in production averaging just 9.2 fantasy points (RB35), 13 carries, and 48 rushing yards per game. Monty’s rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd, while Herbert’s 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th.
And with the new addition of 12th overall draft pick, Jahmyr Gibbs, it’s hard to envision Montgomery as anything more than a fantasy RB2/RB3 with the highly coveted goal-line role likely his main path to appealing fantasy production. Keep in mind that last season, Jamaal Williams carried the ball a league-high 45 times inside the 10-yard line en route to an RB12 fantasy finish and a league-high 17 rushing TDs; not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns.
A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will supplement solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams’ role from 2022 – 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game – and Montgomery’s contract suggests the team will be featuring enough (likely as a rusher on early downs) to be fantasy viable alongside Gibbs.
-Andrew Erickson
The 2022 season was another sad year of D.J. Moore suffering through the “Allen Robinson” experience as one of the league’s most talented receivers that’s being held back by mediocre quarterback play. Moore was the WR33 in fantasy as he dealt with a target quality rating and catchable target rate outside of 90th among receivers. Moore still managed to rank 27th in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). We witnessed his floor last season as Moore was 12th in target share (27.7%), 17th in target per route run rate (26.8%), and fourth in deep targets. Justin Fields will be the best passer that Moore has worked with to this point. While the target volume concerns are justified for Moore in Chicago’s offense, he has already displayed the ability to earn targets at a high rate. If the Bears’ passing volume surprises with the receiving upgrades this offseason, Moore will happily pay off his ADP. Moore is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 in 2023 that could easily finish as a top-15 receiver.
-Derek Brown
After a promising start to his career in his rookie season, Elijah Moore had a rocky and underwhelming 2022. In the nine games, Moore played at least 70% of the snaps; he only saw a 13.2% target share, zero end zone targets, and a 14% target per route run rate. In that sample, he only mustered 1.00 yards per route run. Woof! Those are atrocious numbers for a ballyhooed second-year receiver touted as the next rocket ship to the moon type player. His quarterback play was abysmal, but some blame for his production woes also lies at his feet. The big question is will he be a full-time player in 2023? Cleveland ranked 22nd in 11 personnel usage in 2022, so worries are warranted. Cleveland will likely roll with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones when they go two wide, so the Browns’ bump in 11 usage has to happen for Moore to actualize a ceiling. He’s a risky dice roll in the later rounds of drafts that could pay off, but a lot has to move in his favor for him to resume his rookie season career trajectory.
-Derek Brown
Smith-Schuster had a solid season last year in one of the best offenses in the NFL, but it wasn’t amazing, no matter how you slice it. The great JuJu Smith-Schuster revival in Kansas City didn’t come to fruition as many hoped. He was the WR35 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 17.4% target share (46th) and 16.9% air yard share (70th). Smith-Schuster’s ability to beat zone coverage is his calling card these days, so he should help New England’s passing offense in this aspect. He should be the “new Jakobi Meyers” as a starter in two wide sets that flexes to the slot when they utilize 11 personnel. Smith-Schuster is an uninspiring WR4/5. Outside of Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots’ roster is a steaming pile of stink on offense.
-Derek Brown
The last time we saw Beckham Jr., he evoked thoughts of yesteryear when Beckham Jr. took the league by storm. While Beckham Jr. was on his way to possibly a stout Super Bowl before injury struck again, we’re likely never seeing prime Beckham Jr. again. During his final seven regular season games with the Rams, Beckham Jr. saw a 15.1% target share, 20% target per route run rate, and produced 1.25 yards per route run. His five receiving touchdowns in this span help gloss over the fact that he was a mediocre receiver per efficiency numbers in that stretch. Beckham can continue to be a red zone weapon assuming full health in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, but the days of valuing him as anything more than a WR4/5 are over. I’ll happily draft Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers over Beckham, and they will go behind Beckham in many draft rooms. Beckham will need outlier touchdown production to surpass my expectations for him in 2023.
-Derek Brown
The last time we saw Calvin Ridley, he was still among the best receivers in the league. In 2021, Ridley was seventh in target share (27.4%), fourth in air yard share (40.0%), and fifth in route win rate. Ridley and Ryan just couldn’t find their old chemistry, as Ryan’s skills were profoundly diminished. Ridley was subjected to backup quarterback-level target quality that ranked 63rd. His catchable target rate was only 71.2% (73rd). While it’s worth pondering what version of Ridley we’ll see returning from hiatus, don’t for a second think he was playing poorly in 2021 despite the fantasy results not being there. With Trevor Lawrence taking a huge step forward in 2022, Ridley will be a WR2 next season with WR1 upside.
-Derek Brown
After putting together back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2019 and 2020, Darren Waller has missed 14 games due to injury over the last two years. In 2021, a knee injury forced Waller to miss five late-season games. In 2022, a hamstring injury wiped out nearly half of his season. Now with the Giants, Waller could see a lot of targets for a team short on talent and size at the WR position. Waller has been reasonably productive when healthy the last two seasons, but he now has to be considered at least a mild health risk, and the big tight end will turn 31 in September.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Mike Gesicki is one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, but he was a complete nonfactor in fantasy last season. After a 73-catch, 780-yard season in 2021, Gesicki was franchised-tagged by the Dolphins last year, only to become an afterthought in head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense. Gesicki averaged just 3.1 targets per game in 2022 and finished with 32 catches for 362 yards and five touchdowns. Gesicki has since signed with the Patriots, where he’ll be reunited with his college coach at Penn State, Bill O’Brien, who’s now the Patriots’ offensive coordinator. Gesicki could become a more appealing fantasy option in 2023 if O’Brien is committed to better utilizing Gesicki’s impressive skill set.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
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