It’s time for weekly bold predictions. The point here is that if you follow the consensus, you’re probably going to have a good team. But in order to go from good to great, you have to take some chances. You have to do your homework and figure out where you can zig when the rest of your league (or at least your opponent this week) zags. In short, you need to know how and when to be bold.
We asked our analysts to provide a bold prediction for Week 4. Their answers and justifications are below.
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Q: What is one bold fantasy prediction (player-related) for the upcoming week, and why could it happen?
Tank Dell (WR – HOU)
“Tank Dell has been on an absolute tear in recent weeks, and that will continue this week against the Steelers. Dell is the WR10 in half-PPR scoring through the first three weeks of the season and has found such a nice connection with fellow rookie C.J. Stroud, who also has had a fantastic start to the season. The secondary of the Steelers got torched in week 3 by Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders, and that may continue in Week 4 in Houston. Dell goes over 100 again and scores for the Texans in Week 4. Fire. Him. Up.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
“Alexander Mattison builds off his Week 3 success and is a top-five running back this week. The veteran running back was awful over the first two weeks, averaging only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt and 7.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game against two elite run defenses. However, he turned things around last week against the Chargers’ awful run defense, averaging 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and scoring 15 fantasy points. Now he faces the Panthers in Week 4 and their horrible run defense. Carolina has surrendered 114.7 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and 31.2 fantasy points per game to running backs this season, ranking top five in every category.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
“Alvin Kamara will be a massive dud in his return to action. In Week 4, Kamara will make his return from a three-game suspension. Running back desperate managers are bound to be starting him in hopes of reclaiming his former value, but against a stout Buccaneers run defence, with Jameis Winston at quarterback, Kamara and the Saints offence will be a bust in Week 4.”
– Aaron St Denis (The League Winners)
“Alvin Kamara will be a top 12 fantasy back upon his return from a 3-week suspension. Kamara will return to a Saints team in need of a running back to take charge and he will do so in the passing game. With Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed keeping the defenses honest, Kamara should be able to catch passes out of the backfield with ease. He doesn’t need to handle a heavy load on the ground with Kendre Miller and Tony Jones running between the tackles, which historically helps his production. Look for Kamara to see 10 targets as Winston’s check down receiver, leading to a great fantasy week, especially in PPR leagues.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
“Kyle Pitts will find the endzone. Because he can only seem to find the endzone in games played outside of the United States, this bodes well for him in their game played in London and Andy’s Room.”
– DJ Jarvis (For Fantasy Sake)
Denver Broncos Defense
“This will be the first and last time this season that I make a bold prediction about a team defense. A week after giving up 70 points and 726 yards to the Miami Dolphins, the Denver Broncos will be a top-five fantasy defense this week against the Bears. This is mostly about how bad and disorganized the Bears’ offense has been, although embarrassment is a powerful motivator, and the Denver defense was thoroughly embarrassed last week. After taking a league-high 55 sacks last season, Bears QB Justin Fields has already been sacked 13 times and thrown four interceptions. Defenses facing the Bears have averaged 14.3 fantasy points this season. As bad as the Broncos’ defense was last week, a feeble opponent will produce drastically different results in Week 4.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
“After fantasy finishes of QB-15, QB-20, and QB-24 in the first three weeks, Justin Fields owners are beginning to panic. Fields has only rushed for 109 yards in three games. I think the game script and the Denver defense present a golden opportunity for Fields to do what he does best, which is run the ball. I think he will accomplish what he did four times last season and finish this game with at least 100 rushing yards. ”
– Doug Burrell (Gridiron Experts)
“Justin Fields finishes in the top 12. The Broncos won’t give up 70 points, but that defense is god-awful and will surrender points.”
– Justin Herrera (TSS Fantasy)
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
“Javonte Williams will finish a Top15 back this week. Williams has 36 rushing attempts compared to Perine’s 12 so far in 2023. The Denver Broncos now get to face a struggling Bears defense that allows 29.7 FPPG to the running back position this year.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
“Kyren Williams finishes as a top 3 RB this week. He has one of the most insane usage rates of any RB in the league and a nice matchup against a mediocre Colts defense. It’s being played in a dome, and he should be involved as a pass catcher, too, so he’s got a great chance at a great week.”
– Robert Norton (Last Word On Sports)
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
“Last week gave us the breakout game for rookie De’Von Achane versus the Denver Broncos’ awful defense. This week, we get the same breakout game for rookie RB, Roschon Johnson. The Bears have not been able to stop talking about getting their RB more involved with his snaps and carries increasing in three consecutive games. Although Khalil Herbert is very talented, Chicago has shown their cards regarding how much they like RJ. I expect him to have a big day rushing for 100 yards and 1 TD versus Denver’s atrocious run defense.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Logan Thomas (TE – WAS)
“Logan Thomas will outscore Mark Andrews in Week 4, and it won’t be close. Thomas gets a sweet matchup against the Eagles, who sit dead last in DVOA against tight ends, allowing over seven catches for 65 yards to the position per game. Meanwhile, Andrews faces the Browns, and their impressive defense is second in the league in DVOA versus the TE position, allowing three catches for only 8.6 yards per game. Conventional wisdom says to start Andrews because he is Mark Andrews. This week, however, it’s very defensible to be unconventional, and I would argue it’s actually the wiser choice.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
“Daniel Jones is the QB1 overall in Week 4. We saw what he could do in Week 2 when he wasn’t under duress the entire day. He was the QB1 overall. Seattle is 30th in pressure rate, so Jones should have plenty of time to shred their secondary. Seattle has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Crush Dimes. Crush.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
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