Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
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Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
The former Michigan Wolverine finished as PFF’s fifth-highest graded receiver and 10th-best pass-blocker at the running back position in 2021. His 2.11 yards per route run ranked fourth-best among all RBs, suggesting he has a legitimate shot to take over third-down duties in the Bengals’ backfield vacated by Samaje Perine. But there’s a case to be made that he would also thrive if an injury should occur to Mixon with an equally excellent rushing skill set. Evans’ elusive rating ranked No. 1, and his yards after contact per attempt (4.05) ranked fourth. Fantasy gamers got a glimpse of Evans’ potential in a feature role in Week 18, 2021 when the Bengals rested their starters with their playoff spot secured. Evans played 56% of the snaps in the regular-season finale, compiling 13.9 fantasy points – seven carries for 35 yards and four catches for 24 yards on five targets.
As PFF’s 4th-highest graded rookie running back last season (80.6), Malik Davis could see an expanded role as the No. 2 RB behind Tony Pollard. His main competition for backup duties includes NFL journeymen Ronald Jones and Rico Dowdle.
There’s an NFL simulation where the Chargers lighten Austin Ekeler‘s workload to save him for the length of the season. And if there’s any guy that would step up in that scenario, it would be Joshua Kelley. The fourth-year man from UCLA set career-highs in yards per carry (4.0), PFF run grade (70.2) and elusive rating in 2022. But it’s clear that he is the next man up on the Chargers’ depth chart, should anything happen to Ekeler. That’s worth a dart throw in the 18th round of drafts, in the context of the Bolts’ high-octane offense. Like Ekeler, he’s a free agent at the end of the season suggesting that the coaches could run into the ground.
The Rams traded up to draft Zach Evans very late on Day 3. L.A. traded No. 252 and a sixth-round pick in 2024 to the Bills for Pick 215, where they selected the Ole Miss running back. Evans spent his first two college seasons at TCU, seeing limited usage alongside fellow 2023 draft prospect Kendre Miller. Evans was the clear frontrunner in the backfield to start his sophomore campaign but suffered a turf toe injury that cut his 2021 season short. Evans would go on to transfer to Ole Miss at the start of the 2022 season, where he posted his best college counting stats to date with a 17 percent dominator rating. His 15% boom percentage per Sports Info Solutions led all RBs in his class. However, he failed to fully take over at the backfield as he did at TCU, losing out on touches to freshman running back Quinshon Judkins. The fact that Evans has struggled to fully take over a backfield at the college level – along with no contributing role as a receiver – is a major red flag as he makes his way into the NFL, but his efficient play when on the field suggests he can deliver when called upon. His career average of 3.47 yards per play ranks second-best among the incoming rookie RBs I sampled earlier this offseason. Evans also boasts decent size at 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds – albeit the weight he measured at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine was much lighter than his listed weight at Ole Miss (216 pounds). At the Ole Miss pro day, Evans posted a 4.45 40-time (85th percentile), ran a 4.26 20-yard shuttle (54th percentile) and finished the 3-cone drill in 7.08 seconds (48th percentile). Evans’ best-case scenario was landing on a weak depth chart, and there is nobody threatening behind Cam Akers in the Rams backfield even after the addition of Mr. 2.9 yards per carry, Sony Michel.
DeWayne McBride (MIN) & Ty Chandler (MIN)
DeWayne McBride has been doing it all for the UAB Blazers over the last three seasons, totaling a top five dominator rating (27 percent) for his excellent efforts. He ranks first in the class in career yards per play (4.18) for being so efficient anytime he is on the field. His production is captured in his PFF grades, with him finishing second, eighth, and third, in PFF grading the last three seasons, respectively. Aside from being a complete afterthought in the passing game, McBride checks off a lot of boxes you want to see from a smaller school prospect, and he easily saved his best for last as a junior, finishing second in the FBS in rushing yards (1702, 155 yards per game), second in yards after contact per attempt (4.6) and fifth in dominator rating (35 percent) among the 2023 draft class. Per PFF, his 36 percent missed tackle rate ranks third all-time since the data started being tracked. With desirable size at 5-foot-10 and 209 pounds, McBride is emerging as one of my favorite sleeper running backs in the incoming class. He was selected in the 7th of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings.
However, it’s not necessarily wheels up for McBride to take on the No. 2 duties behind Alexander Mattison in lieu of the Dalvin Cook release. Ty Chandler was selected in the fifth round of last year’s draft and possesses a better three-down skillset with his abilities as a receiver. Considering he already has a professional year under his belt learning his NFL offense, he has the early edge over McBride. Vikings OC Wes Phillips when asked about Chandler’s readiness for an increased role on June 6 said, “I think he’s going to have to be.”
Can’t help but think the debates about this backfield will all be for naught when they add another body in free agency.
D’Onta Foreman‘s performance in 2022 with the Panthers was enough to convince the Bears to sign him to a one-year contract worth $3 million. He joins a crowded backfield with Khalil Herbert, Travis Homer, and 2023 fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson. While Foreman’s late-season breakout was impressive, his inconsistency raises questions about his potential usage in 2023. From Week 7 on, Foreman was the RB21 in fantasy scoring and RB22 in fantasy points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (852) over that span. But his production wasn’t consistent week-to-week, as he rushed for more than 110 yards in half of his last 10 games while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of the others. His weekly half-point PPR fantasy finishes over those last 10 games were RB13, RB5, RB42, RB9, RB48, RB27, RB27, RB70, RB3, and RB53. Additionally, Foreman was not involved in the passing game, recording only five receptions as the team’s starter. Despite his potential, Foreman will have to compete with Herbert, Homer, and Johnson for snaps in the Bears’ backfield. While Herbert has shown the most promise on limited opportunities to the current staff, it’s hard to predict how the workload will be divided among the trio of veteran backs, especially with a fourth option added in the form of Johnson. Fantasy managers should keep an eye on Foreman’s usage during training camp and preseason to gauge his potential value for the upcoming season. He could easily be cut or emerge as the Bears RB1 given the wide range of outcomes regarding Chicago’s backfield.
Kenneth Gainwell (PHI), Boston Scott (PHI) & Trey Sermon (PHI)
In 2022, Kenneth Gainwell‘s role on the Philadelphia Eagles was limited due to the team’s dominant performances, which resulted in him rarely being needed as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. However, his usage increased towards the end of the season, and he out-targeted Miles Sanders 18-5 from Week 15 onward. Sanders played fewer than 40% of snaps in his last five games, after never playing fewer than 50% of snaps from Weeks 1-16, and Gainwell/Sanders split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s last four games, with Gainwell seeing preferred usage on passing downs. With Sanders gone and the Eagles backfield almost completely overturned, Gainwell could see an expanded role on the ground, in addition to his confirmed receiving role on offense. The key question for Gainwell’s fantasy prospects will be the health of newcomers Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift. If they can stay healthy for a full season, Gainwell’s workload could be limited, but if they cannot, Gainwell will benefit. Currently, Gainwell is the cheapest ADP option in the Philadelphia Eagles backfield, despite his status as an incumbent.
Also worth noting that Penny’s deal is worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed – less than Boston Scott‘s $2 million with $1.08 guaranteed. Swift is the superior pass-catcher, but an argument can be made that Penny is as good if not better as a pure rusher.
Trey Sermon is getting the positive lip service in early OTAs, so he’s just a name to keep tabs on. Might be worth it to stash him in some deeper formats. His biggest issue in college and in the pros has been his inability to take over a backfield. So unless injuries absolutely decimate this backfield, I’m not sure Sermon sniffs the field. Keep in mind, Sermon got similar “hype” in the 49ers (the team that drafted him) camp last year. Woof.
It’s worth noting that Jordan Mason, the 49ers’ No. 3 running back in 2022, graded out as PFF’s second-highest graded rusher last season (92.9). He ranked first among rookies. Other rookies that held that honor in the past include…Rhamondre Stevenson, Johnathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara. Mason’s larger stature — 5’11 223 lbs — could help him hold up over an 18-week season, and he could potentially push Elijah Mitchell for the backup job. Mitchell has played just 16 games over the last two seasons and already picked up a small injury during OTAs.
Part of my reason for fading Brian Robinson Jr. in redraft this season is because the Commanders drafted a player with a very similar skill set to his in the sixth round of this year’s draft: Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez Jr. C-Rod spent the last five years with the Wildcats totaling a solid 23% career dominator rating but what’s most impressive about Rodriguez’s college tenure was the 2020 season; one which saw him post a 33% dominator rating after he took over the starting RB1 role. Rodriguez rushed for 785 yards and 11 TDs in nine games, finishing as PFF’s second-highest graded running back in the FBS sandwiched between Javonte Williams and Tyler Allgeier. And his success continued from there, with 1,300 rushing yards in 2021. Entering 2022, Rodriguez Jr. was forced to miss time to start the year but his return was immediately felt as he finished the year as PFF’s eighth-highest-graded RB averaging 113 rushing yards per game and a 37% broken tackle rate. C-Rod earned a 36% final season dominator rating when you remove the production from his teammates during the four games he missed to open the 2022 season.
The Day 3 pick has gotten high praise from the Commanders coaching staff this offseason, with reports leaking that Washington had a Round 3 grade on him. Under a new offensive coordinator, the offense could favor Rodriguez over Robinson as the team’s power back.
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