Our analysts have put together fantasy football outlooks for all fantasy-relevant players. You can find them on our player pages and via our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These will be updated throughout the preseason to help you navigate your fantasy football drafts utilizing our bevy of tools, including our FREE draft simulator and cheat sheet creator. We’ll cover players in different groups to help you identify those to target and others to avoid. Let’s take a look at our predictions for third-year players.
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Fantasy Football Third-Year Player Predictions
Here are 2023 fantasy football outlooks for third-year players.
After finishing runner-up in the Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting in 2021, Mac Jones regressed slightly in his second NFL season, with slight dips in yards per attempt, completion percentage and TD rate. Jones averaged 214.1 yards per game, with 14 TD passes and 11 INTs in 14 games. Jones offers little value as a runner, and he might already be near his ceiling as a passer. Consider Jones a fantasy backup whose primary value is that he seems entrenched as New England’s starter for at least one more season, barring a challenge from young backup Bailey Zappe.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Justin Fields was electric as a runner in 2022. If he can significantly boost his passing numbers in 2023, look out. Fields ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns last season, averaging a league-high 7.1 yards per carry. He ran for 178 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 9, breaking the single-game rushing record for a quarterback — then ran for 147 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions the following week. But Fields averaged 149.5 passing yards per game and topped the 200-yard mark only twice in 2022. In his defense, Fields was saddled by a mediocre offensive line and arguably the worst WR group in the league. The Bears have already traded for WR D.J. Moore and figure to bolster their offensive line in the NFL Draft, giving Fields a chance to make the same sort of quantum leap that Jalen Hurts made in 2022.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Khalil Herbert was better than David Montgomery in nearly every single rushing metric in 2022. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Montgomery’s flat 4.0 yards per carry average. Herbert rushed for just 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. Monty’s rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd while Herbert’s 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th. Had Herbert not gotten hurt in Week 10 versus the Detroit Lions, there was a non-zero chance he would have completely usurped Montgomery as the team’s lead back.
In the two games that Herbert led the backfield due to a Montgomery injury, the Bears second-year rusher averaged 117 rushing yards and 19.5 carries. Herbert also has just had as many career games (4) as Montgomery with at least 90 rushing yards.
With Monty leaving in free agency, the rebuilding Bears let him walk and added D’Onta Foreman to join the backfield. Foreman’s flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it’s hard to envision anything but another usage split between Herbert and Foreman similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season.
Foreman and Herbert earned nearly identical rushing EPA per attempt last year (inside the top 15). Fantasy managers might be best off taking the cheaper of the two in drafts because there may not be a true No. 1 rusher in the Windy City unless there’s an injury. If the Bears are as run-heavy as they were last season, there’s a chance that both can return value, but keep in mind that Justin Fields‘ own rushing will take away volume chances from both backs.
Fantasy managers also have to consider 4th-round rookie draft selection, Roschon Johnson. Johnson’s efficient rushing style, bell-cow size and pass-protection props figure to complicate the Bears backfield into a potential three-headed monster.
-Andrew Erickson
Damien Harris has been officially replaced by Ezekiel Elliott, who signed a one-year contract worth up to $6 million ($3 million base contract) with the Patriots this offseason. The incentives-based contract suggests that Zeke will be nothing more than a breather back for New England coming to take the load off Rhamondre Stevenson, while also seeing an opportunity for goal-line usage. The red-zone opportunities are the only legitimate downside to Elliott signing with the Patriots from the Stevenson perspective. But in every other capacity, Stevenson should remain the team’s featured back because Elliott is way best his prime.
Therefore, Stevenson’s role in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 of 2022 when he was the RB13 in points per game as the Patriots’ lead back. And recall that even when Harris played alongside Stevenson, the big running back STILL finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82) among running backs.
Also remember that Stevenson’s strong campaign en route to an RB10 finish was not fueled by touchdowns. Stevenson was one of the worst RBs converting from inside the 10-yard line as he scored just thrice despite 19 goal-line carries. His teammate Harris scored thrice from inside the 10, on just 6 carries. In yet, Stevenson still finished as backend fantasy RB because he’s a super-efficient running back – PFF’s 11th highest graded rusher – with pass-game chops. Stevenson finished as RB1 in 44% of his games last season, which tied Chubb for 6th-highest at the position.
If Stevenson experiences positive TD regression, it’s just gravy on top of his fantasy projection. It’s not like Elliott bogarting goal-line usage in Dallas stopped Tony Pollard from being a fantasy football stud. Buy the ADP dip on Stevenson that Zeke’s signing will undoubtedly cause.
-Andrew Erickson
The Pittsburgh Steelers running back took a slight step backward in his second season, falling to RB14 in points per game after a top-5 fantasy season as a rookie. However, his usage metrics were still very strong across the board. Harris still operated as a pseudo-workhorse ranking 6th in opportunity share (70%) and 8th in total touches through the first 17 weeks of the season. Harris also improved drastically after the team’s bye week operating as the RB7 in points per game over the last 9 weeks of the season. After tallying zero games with 20 carries through the first 8 weeks, Harris totaled 5 games with 20-plus carries during the second half of 2022. Should the Steelers undergo an offensive surge in Kenny Pickett‘s second season with a drastically improved offensive line, Harris could easily get back into the top-tier fantasy RB tier.
-Andrew Erickson
From Weeks 7-17 – removing the game versus Baltimore when Travis Etienne left with an injury – the Jaguars running back averaged 15 fantasy points per game (RB8 in points per game) and was the standing RB10 in total half-points scored. ETN would proceed to finish the 2022 fantasy regular season tied for 5th in carries inside the 10-yard line (23), but he only scored four touchdowns on those carries. He’s primed to see his TD numbers climb with the backfield all but his from the get-go in 2023 in ascending offense. Etienne also just scratched the surface of how he can contribute in the passing game. The receiving “role” has been his in terms of routes run most weeks in 2022, but targets did not always follow with Trevor Lawrence preferring Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram – who all stayed healthy in 2022. If one of those guys goes down in 2023 we will probably see ETN see a boosted receiving role. The second-year rusher averaged a 22% target rate per route in 3 of his last four games played. No. 2 running back/pass-catcher JaMycal Hasty, former Cleveland Brown D’Ernest Johnson and 2023 third-rounder Tank Bigsby are behind him on the current depth chart.
-Andrew Erickson
Rashod Bateman looked like a receiver on his way to a breakout campaign before his season was derailed by a foot sprain in Week 4 and ultimately ended in Week 8 with a LisFranc injury. In Weeks 1-3, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, a 30.3% air yard share, and 3.14 yards per route run. Bateman was also only a 72.7% route per dropback player in that stretch. Bateman’s talent is real, but he needs his health to comply. This could be a breaking point season. The team signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft. This will be the best collection of weapons Lamar Jackson has ever had, but that also means it’s the most competition for targets Bateman has dealt with during his time in Baltimore. Bateman has the talent to still emerge as the number one receiver in this offense and compete weekly for the team lead in targets with Mark Andrews. He’s a WR3/4 that could easily finish as a WR2.
-Derek Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown proved that his sensational rookie season stretch run was no fluke as he stepped up as one of the best young wide receivers in the game. St. Brown finished as the WR10 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share, third in target per route run rate, eighth in red zone targets, and fourth in YAC. With only six total touchdowns, St. Brown could be even better in 2023 if the volume remains stable. After starting with seven red zone targets over his first four games, he only saw one red zone target over the next four weeks. Over his final nine games, he amassed 15 red zone targets. If that usage remains stable inside the 20 for 2023, St. Brown could easily be staring at a double-digit touchdown season and a top-five fantast wideout finish.
-Derek Brown
The Eagles utilized DeVonta Smith in a different role in 2022 than during his rookie season, and the results were beautiful. In 2021 Smith was ninth in deep targets and sixth in aDOT among wide receivers as Philly rolled him out a field stretcher. While Smith was solid in this role, his upside as a zone-destroying intermediate-level threat was seized in 2022. Smith still finished 19th in deep targets among wideouts, but his aDOT dropped to 9.9 (65th) as he began to gobble up targets. Smith was 13th in targets (136), 14th in target share (27.0%), and 19th in target per route run rate (26.2%). He finished with 95 receptions (ninth-best), 1,196 receiving yards (eighth), and seven total touchdowns (14th) as the WR14 in fantasy. Smith was 18th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). With a consolidated target tree and an ascending quarterback talent in Philly, Smith is poised to be a solid WR2 again in 2023.
-Derek Brown
After becoming the first tight end in 50 seasons to have 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, Kyle Pitts had a bitterly disappointing sophomore season, finishing with 28 catches for 356 yards and two touchdowns and missing the last six games of the season with a torn MCL. The 22-year-old Pitts is immensely talented and figures to be a top fantasy TE for many years to come. But can Pitts be a prolific fantasy scorer in 2023 with run-loving head coach Arthur Smith in charge of the Falcons’ offense and the Atlanta QB situation unsettled? Pitts will be a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option for 2023, but at least he’ll be cheaper in this year’s drafts than he was in 2022.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
After a promising rookie season in which he had 60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns, Pat Freiermuth scored only two TDs in 2022. But Freiermuth drew 98 targets in his second season and finished with 63 catches for 732 yards. The former second-round draft pick from Penn State offers a solid fantasy floor as a key component of the Pittsburgh passing game.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
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