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Let’s take a look at players to buy and sell this week. And be sure to check out our weekly trade value chart with updated values for all players.
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Players to Buy
Nick Chubb was a standout performer. Rushed for 106 yards despite a long of just 17 rushing yards.
18 for 106 versus Jerome Ford‘s 15 for 36. Same offensive line. Chubb is just that good. And he did it on a 49% snap share. And better yet, Chubb got more receiving work totaling 22 touches with four targets. Buy high before people realize Chubb is poised for his best season ever.
Travis Etienne showcased his versatility with 23 touches, 18 carries for 77 yards, 1 26-yard rushing TD, and 5 receptions for 27 yards. Bell cow status with an 80% snap share. Beyond elite route participation – 85%. Ran a route on 30 of 35 Trevor Lawrence dropbacks with no JaMycal Hasty.
Next up KC Chiefs. Might be too late to get him on your roster if you didn’t have him already.
Rhamondre Stevenson earned 6 targets as the team’s leader in receiving yards with Bourne (64 receiving yards).
But dear lord they kept forcing passes to Ezekiel Elliott (5 catches for 12 yards on 7 targets) even after he fumbled. JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Demario Douglas each also had 7 targets on 27 routes run (46%).
The only issue is Kayshon Boutte actually played ahead of BOTH of those players with four targets of his own (69% snap share). The issue with the rookie was he failed to get both his feet down on a couple of sideline targets, typical of a first year WR. Still, his route participation in first game (74%) suggests the coaches want him out there, so stash Boutte in deeper formats.
Both RBs were horrible on the ground as the Eagles DL overmatched Pats OL. The Patriots also couldn’t run effectively being down 16-0 from the get-go.
So given it all, Stevenson coming out with 18 touches and nearly 90 yards with a 72% snap share is a win. Because during the game it didn’t seem like that at all.
And like the difference between a Stevenson target (10.6 ypt) and Zeke target (2.0 ypt) …has me convinced these Elliott targets are not here for the long run. Stevenson doubled his routes. No way Elliott will continue to be targeted at a near 40% per route run basis.
Buy low on Stevenson amid the Elliott interference with a JUICY matchup on deck versus a Miami Dolphins horrible run defense.
Week 1 for the Lions. Veteran free agent signing David Montgomery: 77% snap share, 21 touches. 12th overall rookie RB Jamyr Gibbs: 27% snap share, 9 touches.
As for Jahmyr Gibbs, it was an up-and-down debut. He flashed the explosiveness and speed that we fell in love with during the draft process, but his overall usage wasn’t there for fantasy. He earned 37% of the team’s expected fantasy value to David Montgomery‘s 63%. However, had he scored – which he easily should have done but he tripped over himself – fantasy managers wouldn’t be complaining. I was honestly not discouraged by his debut as the mainstream seems to be. Again, as steady as Montgomery is, he’s not a true difference-maker. Gibbs totaled 60 yards on 9 touches/19 snaps. 6.6 yards per touch, 3.2 yards per snap. If Montgomery had not scored, then would have posted nearly identical fantasy point totals. Gibbs totaled seven points in half-PPR. 0.37 fantasy points per snap (tied with Josh Jacobs last year). Go trade for him now.
The Bengals struggled to find their rhythm, potentially due to Joe Burrow‘s return from injury and adverse weather conditions. The guy threw for 82 yards. Just burn the tape. Especially performance by Tee Higgins. Especially Tee Higgins. Higgins is the first player since Amari Cooper to post 0 catches on 8 targets…. (2015). Cooper went 6-120-2 the following week.
Considering Higgins saw plenty of air yards…151 (64%) he is literally the definition of a BUY-LOW WR in the air yards model coming off a 95% snap share. This Ravens banged-up secondary is in for a rude awakening in Week 2.
Deebo Samuel finished Week 1 with 5 catches for 55 yards on 7 targets. Although Brandon Aiyuk stole the show, Samuel still had a solid game. 25% target share. 32% air yards share. 97% route participation. Running the most routes on the 49ers. I think Samuel is a savvy buy-low with all the shine on Aiyuk.
Rachaad White‘s stats weren’t impressive, but he had a solid workload. 17 for 39 rushing, 2 for 10 receiving yards. 19 touches are still solid in his season debut with a whopping 79% snap share. 55% route participation. No. 2 RB Sean Tucker had 7 and was equally inefficient. Buccaneers have OL issues. But I was very shocked at White’s lack of targets (2). Something to monitor. I’d buy low with the Bears’ horrible defense coming up next. 6th on the week among RBs in snap share and 11th in touches.
The biggest surprise though for the Bears in Week 2? D.J. Moore. TWO TARGETS. Despite a 92% snap share and 94% route participation. Might have been the Jaire Alexander treatment but you trade for this guy and don’t target him? Man. Must expect a squeaky wheel game coming soon. Works in Chicago’s favor they have a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary in Week 2, Moore has played many times in the past. Last time he faced them, Moore blew up for 117 yards on 6 catches and 1 TD on 10 targets.
Buy low on D.J. Moore.
Tight end Logan Thomas was the No. 1 target (8 targets) posting a 4 for 43 stat line, followed by second-year WR Jahan Dotson (7 targets) who went 5 for 40 receiving yards. Dotson led the team in routes run (95% route participation) and air yards share (30%).
LT picked up the elite tight-end role we were hoping for, running a route on 32 of 42 dropbacks (76%). Also played 82% of the offensive snaps.
Curtis Samuel led the team in receiving yards (54) with five catches on a 65% snap rate.
Terry McLaurin played a full complement of snaps, but he was not featured nor efficient. Playing time was not limited by his turf toe injury, but he had just two catches for 31 yards on four targets. Brutal matchup in Week 2 where he will likely draw coverage from Patrick Surtain II. Woof. Sell McLaurin and buy Dotson after a quiet Week 1. WR1 Alpha usage.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each saw 10 targets (33% target share). Smith (97%) ran two more routes than Brown (92%). Smith scored and Brown got more yardage and more air yards (59%).
But Dallas Goedert‘s lack of targets shouldn’t raise concerns. Now if you remember, something weird like this happened last year for the Eagles, when DeVonta Smith goose-egged. Do not overact.
Given the current landscape of tight end, I’d look to acquire DG on the cheap for a manager potentially panicked. After the game head coach Nick Siranni said, We can’t go a game without getting Dallas Goedert the football. He’s too good of a playmaker.”
What he said about Smith after Week 1 last year…” he has to touch the ball. We must. “Thursday night bounce back versus the Vikings? Lock it in.
Goedert played 92% of the snaps and ran a route on 36 of 38 Jalen Hurts‘ dropbacks. The targets will come.
Deshaun Watson‘s rushing ability kept him valuable in fantasy, despite his struggles in passing. 5 for 45 rushing and 1 touchdown on the ground.
He missed some key throws, but his running capability allowed him to finish as a fantasy QB1.
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