I usually write daily fantasy sports (DFS) articles, but we’re taking a crack at something different this year! I’ll still be providing my usual DFS pieces, but I’m also debuting this “Smash Starts” article. The premise of this article is simple, but it’s also essential. I’ll tell you more about it in the next paragraph because I can’t wait to dive into this Week 1 slate!
The premise behind this article will be easily understood throughout the year. Identifying fantasy football smash plays that are on the fringe of your starting lineup and capitalizing on utilizing them. We rarely recommend a top 20 player at any position, but we want to help you fill those critical flex spots to gain an edge on your opponent.
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- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
10 Fantasy Football Smash Starts for Week 1 (2023)
Quarterbacks
Tua was falling in drafts, and I genuinely believe it’s because of the scary concussions many of us saw last season. Dangerous situations like that always make fantasy managers more hesitant than they should be, but all signs point toward Tua being at full strength. If that’s the case, Tagovailoa is a top-10 quarterback. He showed that last season, scoring at least 16 DraftKings (DK) points in eight of his final nine games while averaging 20 DK points per game in that span.
He also showcased a 44-point upside, one of the best games of any player all year. That could happen against Los Angeles, allowing the ninth-most passing yards in the NFL. The oddsmakers agree with our assessment because this 51-point total is the largest projection on the main slate.
Running Backs
This is a backfield I was ready to fade until I heard the Jeff Wilson news. Mostert and Wilson were expected to split this backfield 50/50, but with Wilson out, Mostert should get the bulk of the carries and all the goal line work. That’s huge in the highest-scoring game of the weekend, especially when examining Mostert’s production in a full-time role. In the six games Mostert played at least 40 snaps last season, he averaged 15.7 carries and 85 rushing yards.
That sort of production would make him a high-end flex because he’s also just +105 to score a touchdown on DraftKings. We didn’t even mention that L.A. allowed 5.4 yards per carry last season, the worst mark in the NFL. Many people took guys like David Montgomery, Dalvin Cook, Javonte Williams and D’Andre Swift for their flex spot, but Mostert is the much better option this week.
Jackson only became fantasy-relevant last week, but he’s a sneaky flex option. He’s been announced as the starter in the absence of Jonathan Taylor, and he’s been productive in that role in the past. In the five games Jackson played at least 25 snaps last year, he averaged 13 fantasy points per game. He also flashed a 28-point gem in a game where he played 50 snaps, which could be the case since Zack Moss is also out for Indy.
We’re concerned about this committee with Antonio Gibson, but B-Rob will be the goal line back and receive double-digit carries in nearly every game. That becomes particularly attractive in a matchup like this because Washington is a 7.5-point favorite at home. It’s easy to understand why they’re such massive favorites because Arizona could be the worst team in the NFL. The Cardinals also ranked 20th in yards per carry last year, and we’d be surprised if they kept Robinson out of the endzone in this sensational matchup.
In the final seven games of last year, Robinson averaged 19.7 carries and 83 rushing yards per game. That’s what we expect to see here, and adding a touchdown to that line would make him a dominant flex option.
It’s unbelievable just how undervalued Williams is in drafts right now. This guy broke out last season, and he’s expected to get all the running back work in the opening three weeks. Not only is Alvin Kamara suspended for the first three weeks, but Kendre Miller is also injured. That means Williams could get 20 carries and five targets, which is incredible when you look at his 2022 statistics. The bulky back scored at least 12 fantasy points nine times last year while dropping 23 or more DK points in five of those.
Wide Receivers
Dotson missed five games last year and was unrecognizable in his first three games back from injury. That stretch makes Dotson one of the most underrated assets in fantasy because he averaged 14.1 DK points per game in his other nine outings. That’s an outstanding output from a rookie, and he looked like one of the breakout stars of the preseason just a few weeks ago.
Terry McLaurin being nicked up only adds to Dotson’s value, especially since they face a 24th-ranked Arizona secondary.
Many people forget just how talented Sutton has looked at times in his career, and we have to assume he’s found some chemistry with Russell Wilson. There’s talk that this offense has made some leaps in training camp with their passing game, and with Jerry Jeudy possibly sitting, Sutton should be the focal point of it.
Sutton should see double-digit targets with Jeudy out, and we saw Sutton score 13.2 fantasy points per game in the 11 outings he had at least seven targets last year. We also don’t mind that Vegas allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL last year.
This is risky because of health, but Thomas has always been tremendous whenever he’s been on the field. That’s been a rare occurrence over the last three years, but he was the best receiver in fantasy before that. It’s not like he was terrible in the injury-riddled stretch, scoring at least 16 fantasy points in five of the last seven games he’s played.
We’re not sure he’ll reach that, but playing with a guy like Derek Carr is massive for his fantasy value. The matchup is the icing on the cake, with Tennessee allowing the most passing yards in the NFL last year.
Tight Ends
It’s sad that Cooper Kupp is expected to miss this game, but it’s massive for Higbee’s value. Many people didn’t even draft Higbee before the Kupp injury, but Higbee is a top-eight tight end as long as Kupp is out. We say that because he’s expected to be the top target in this offense, averaging 9.4 DraftKings points per game when Kupp was sidelined last year.
That might not sound like much, but it’s one of the higher totals at the weakest position in fantasy. Seattle is a sensational matchup, too, with Seattle surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last year.
D/STs
Washington Commanders D/ST
Many people didn’t even draft Washington’s D/ST, but I certainly did as my Week 1 streamer! The odds tell you everything you need to know, with the Commanders entering this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite in a game with a 38-point total. That means the Cardinals are the lowest projected offense of the week, which is no surprise since they didn’t name a quarterback until yesterday.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
