Wide Receiver Projections: Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Jahan Dotson (Fantasy Football)

This is an article that fascinates me. Most pieces I write generally focus on a fantasy perspective, but this one is more directed toward the gambling community. It’s also an interesting look at our premier projection system, which is an excellent tool for any fantasy manager.

With that said, I’ve dug deep down into these projections and found some estimates that I disagreed with. It’s an excellent opportunity to bet on some of these wide receiver totals, so let’s look at some of these wideout over/unders. And check out our predictions for running back projections from earlier this month.

More Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Projections
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Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

Wide Receiver Over/Under Projections (2023 Fantasy Football)

Mike Evans (WR – TB) Over 991.4 Receiving Yards

What if I told you that you could bet something that has happened 100% of the time? It obviously doesn’t work like that, but Evans has never finished below 1,000 receiving yards in any of his nine years with Tampa! He’s also played at least 15 games in all but one of those, recording at least 67 catches in every season as well. That’s the definition of consistency, and it’s clear our projections are worried about this passing game.

Losing Tom Brady is obviously massive, but it’s hard to overlook a guy who’s been this reliable for nearly a decade. We also expect this Tampa team to be one of the worst in the NFL, and that means they could be throwing just as much as we’re accustomed to.

Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) Under 919.1 Receiving Yards

Watching Kirk go off last season was fun, but it’s difficult seeing him duplicate that. Adding Calvin Ridley is the biggest problem because Ridley was one of the best receivers in the NFL before making some bets and finding himself sitting at home. In fact, Ridley had 90 catches for 1,374 yards on 143 targets in his last full season. We don’t expect him to return to that level, but anyone getting 100-150 targets will take away from everyone else in this offense.

Through his first five years, Kirk averaged 802 receiving yards per year, and that’s what we expect to see this season, with Ridley, Evan Engram and Zay Jones all expected to be significant parts of this offense. DraftKings agrees with my assessment, projecting Kirk to compile 825.5 receiving yards in this new-look offense.

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) Under 829.1 Receiving Yards

We believe that McLaurin will be the focal point of this passing game, and there’s really not much else for anyone else. Many fantasy managers have Dotson pegged as a breakout, but this 829-yard total seems way too high. It’s hard to evaluate a second-year player, but getting 35 catches for 523 yards in a rookie season is nothing to write home about. He also had four games with fewer than 15 receiving yards, and that sort of floor will be common since he’s the second piece for an underwhelming quarterback.

People also forget that Curtis Samuel is still in town, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him play more than Dotson. The DraftKings over/under is the nail in the coffin, projecting Dotson to collect just 700.5 yards.