Earlier this week, we looked at four receivers who were overvalued at their ADP. Today we are going to look at the inverse of that: Receivers you should be targeting at their ADP. Like anything, some of these players come with risks, but I would much prefer to invest in them at their raw cost as opposed to others in the same range.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Undervalued Wide Receivers Based on ADP
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) – ADP: 73rd/WR29
The Tyler Lockett disrespect has gone too far, so hopefully, this can serve as a reminder that Lockett hasn’t finished worse than the WR23 in a season since 2017. While I understand the concerns (Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s arrival, Seattle being a run-oriented offense), Lockett only had a 79% snap share (35th) and a 22.8% target share (26th) in 2023 but ended as the WR23. He is supremely underrated in how efficient he is as a receiver, meaning that even if his target share takes a slight dip, he should still return value as the current WR29 off the board. I am more than happy to let the perception of Lockett knock him down a round further than where he should be and snap him up.
Marquise Brown (WR – ARI) – ADP: 77th/WR35
Brown is being pushed down draft boards, and like Tyler Lockett, there are valid concerns. Kyler Murray is looking likely to miss the first six weeks of the season, and the Cardinals have a legitimate shot at being the worst team in football. That still doesn’t mean Brown should be treated as a low-end WR3. Brown will be the undisputed top-receiving option for Arizona and should have a floor of eight targets per game with the potential for much more.
Last year when Brown was in a similar spot without DeAndre Hopkins, he racked up 75 targets in his first six games. No matter how you slice that, if he is getting that kind of target share, he should be no worse than a WR2. If Murray comes back strong, Brown will end up being one of the best bargains at the position.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky
