MLB owns the night tonight, creating a vast array of Underdog Fantasy pick ’em choices. Today’s suggested picks are dominated by the Braves and the unlucky pitcher who is taking the bump against them. Although, the top picks open with a lousy-hitting catcher.
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Tuesday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Jacob Stallings: 0.5 Total Bases – Lower
Stallings isn’t on the diamond for his bat. According to FanGraphs, in 188 plate appearances this year, he has a .188 batting average. The veteran catcher has recorded a hit in only 24 of 54 starts. Furthermore, Stallings has an abysmal .173 batting average in 150 plate appearances against righties.
The matchup is also a nightmare. Cristian Javier has held 217 righties to a puny .184 batting average. Therefore, Stallings is a long shot to get a hit tonight.
Luis Severino: 3.5 Earned Runs – Higher
Severino is a punching bag this year. In 14 appearances (13 starts), Severino has an 8.06 ERA, 6.75 xERA, 5.13 xFIP and 5.01 SIERA. He’s ceded over 3.5 earned runs eight times this year.
The matchup literally couldn’t be worse for Severino tonight, either. The Braves are first in wRC+ (122) versus righties in 2023, first in wRC+ (138) in the previous 30 days and second in wRC+ (130) at home this season. Atlanta should smash Severino tonight.
Michael Harris: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Sadly, Underdog Fantasy gamers can’t use Atlanta’s hitters and Severino’s prop in the same submission. Still, Harris is the first of three batters on the Braves with an appealing prop. The sophomore outfielder rakes against righties, especially at home. In 132 plate appearances against righties at home this year, he’s had eight doubles, one triple, five homers, a .328 batting average, .538 slugging and .210 ISO.
Conversely, lefties have killed Severino. The 150 lefties who’ve faced him this year have knocked him around for 14 doubles, 10 homers, a .373 batting average and a .701 slugging. Finally, Harris should have many opportunities to exceed 1.5 total bases with a promotion to the No. 2 spot in Atlanta’s order.
Matt Olson: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Olson is an even more fearsome matchup for Severino than Harris. The slugging first baseman is ripping the cover off the ball this year and shines brightest at home with the platoon advantage. In 214 plate appearances against righties at home this year, Olson has had eight doubles, one triple, 22 homers, a .306 batting average, .728 slugging and .422 ISO.
Ronald Acuna: 11.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Acuna will get the first crack at Severino from the leadoff spot. And while he doesn’t have the platoon advantage against Severino, New York’s righty has struggled mightily with right-handed batters. The 161 righties who’ve faced Severino have had eight doubles, eight homers, a .294 batting average, .363 OBP, .517 slugging and .376 wOBA. Severino has also struggled to control the running game, yielding nine stolen bases in 14 games this season.
Acuna does it all and dominates against righties at home. In 229 plate appearances against righties at Truist Park this year, he has 14 doubles, one triple, 10 homers, a .342 batting average, .437 OBP .235 ISO and 173 wRC+. The toolsy outfielder has also stolen 55 bases in 64 attempts.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
