The Underdog Fantasy MLB pick ’em lobby has a robust collection of choices. This pick narrows the focus to the five most appealing props. There is a mix of pitching and hitting props and higher and lower selections below.
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Johan Rojas: 0.5 Singles – Lower
Rojas has settled in as the No. 9 hitter lately for the Phillies. The rookie’s lineup spot is a draw for betting lower for 0.5 singles. In addition, he’s recorded over 0.5 singles only eight times in 19 starts this year.
The right-handed-hitting outfielder has an underwhelming .263 batting average in 44 plate appearances against righties. And according to FanGraphs, Joan Adon has held 26 right-handed batters to just a .136 batting average this season.
Alex Cobb: 21.5 Fantasy Points – Lower
Cobb is stumbling into tonight’s matchup with MLB’s most imposing lineup. In Cobb’s previous five starts, he’s had a 6.58 ERA, 4.09 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, 8.0 BB% and 16.8 K% in 26.0 innings. The veteran righty has also struggled on the road for the Giants. In 124.0 innings on the road since 2022, Cobb has had a 5.08 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, 6.5 BB% and 21.4 K%. That won’t cut it against the best offense in MLB against righties.
Nolan Arenado: 8.0 – Higher
Arenado is a lefty-killer and has a good matchup tonight. In 357 plate appearances against southpaws since 2021, Arenado has had a .325 OBP, .297 ISO and 139 wRC+. The veteran third baseman will take cuts against a pitcher returning from the Injured List (IL). Joey Lucchesi last started in the majors in the middle of May. In five starts spanning 22.1 innings this year, Lucchesi has a 4.43 ERA, 6.88 xERA and 4.87 xFIP. Moreover, he’s coughed up a .342 OBP, .514 slugging and .365 wOBA to 79 righties in 2023.
Randy Arozarena: 8.0 Fantasy Points – Higher
Arozarena destroys left-handed pitchers. In 457 plate appearances against southpaws since 2021, he’s had a .374 OBP, .232 ISO and 153 wRC+. The toolsy outfielder has also swiped 15 bases in 117 games this year.
Conversely, Tyler Anderson has struggled against right-handed batters this year. He’s allowed a .343 OBP, .466 slugging and .346 wOBA to 383 righties in 2023. And, unlike some lefties who put the clamps on baserunners, he’s allowed six stolen bases in 21 appearances (20 starts).
Brandon Pfaadt: 4.5 Strikeouts – Higher
Pfaadt wilted under the bright lights of The Show earlier in his rookie season. However, he’s risen to the occasion lately. In his previous five starts spanning 29.0 innings, Pfaadt has had a 4.34 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, 3.84 SIERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.9 BB%, 29 strikeouts, 9.00 K/R, a 23.8 K%, 29.5 CSW%, 105 Stuff+, 107 Location+ and 107 Pitching+.
Pffadt has struck out over 4.5 batters in four of his last five turns and fanned eight Padres in his most recent start. He’ll oppose the Friars again tonight. Finally, DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook have Pfaadt’s strikeout prop juiced to over 4.5.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
