The Underdog Fantasy MLB pick ’em lobby is bursting at the seams. The choices are vast. However, this piece narrows the picks to the five most appealing selections, mixing pitcher and hitter props and higher and lower choices.
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Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Dallas Keuchel: 3.5 Earned Runs – Higher
Keuchel debuted for the Twins last week, holding the Diamondbacks to one run in 5.0 innings. However, it was a flukey start. The veteran lefty ceded eight hits, two walks and had zero strikeouts.
Keuchel was also lucky in the minors this year. According to FanGraphs, in six starts in Triple-A this season, he had a 1.13 ERA and a 4.02 xFIP. And, of course, Keuchel was a punching bag last year. He had a 9.20 ERA, 5.49 xERA, and 4.72 xFIP in 14 starts in 2022. Since last year, Keuchel’s allowed over 3.5 earned runs in nine of 15 starts in the majors.
Andrew Abbott: 27.5 Fantasy Points – Lower
Abbott has pitched well in his rookie season. However, the lefty’s 2.93 ERA overstates how well he’s pitched. Instead, his 3.72 xERA and 4.61 xFIP are more indicative of the quality of Abbott’s work. And the other shoe has dropped lately.
In Abbott’s last two starts, he lasted only 9.0 innings and coughed up 10 earned runs on 14 hits, eight walks and eight strikeouts. The Pirates have an underwhelming offense. Still, Abbott’s in a slight funk, and Pittsburgh has a few hitters who can make the rookie lefty’s life difficult tonight.
Matt Olson: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Olson is unloading on righties this season. In 389 plate appearances against them, he has had 14 doubles, two triples, 33 homers, a .272 batting average, .635 slugging and .362 ISO. The matchup is good for Olson, too. Tylor Megill has allowed eight doubles, five homers, a .293 batting average and a .449 slugging to 170 lefties.
Tylor Megill: 20.5 Fantasy Points – Lower
Megill’s struggled mightily this season. In 16 starts spanning 76.0 innings, he’s had a 5.45 ERA, 6.37 xERA and 5.16 xFIP. Additionally, Megill was also dreadful in Triple-A this year. In six starts totaling 27.0 innings for Syracuse, he had an 8.67 ERA and 6.25 xFIP.
Megill can make a mess in even a favorable matchup. Yet, the Braves are a nightmare matchup. Atlanta is first in wRC+ (120) against righties and first in wRC+ (118) on the road this year. And the Braves are second in wRC+ (133) in the previous 30 days.
MJ Melendez: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Melendez came out of the All-Star break swinging a hot stick. In 101 plate appearances in the second half, Melendez has had four doubles, one triple, six homers, a .280 batting average, .538 slugging and .258 ISO.
Adam Wainwright is ill-equipped to slow down Melendez. Waino’s been entirely inept against lefties this year. The veteran hurler has allowed 13 doubles, two triples, seven homers, a .400 batting average and a .704 slugging to 143 lefties in 2023.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
