The tight end position has become a battle of the haves and the have-nots. You either draft Travis Kelce in round one, or you settle for one of the others.
That’s not to say all other tight ends are bad. The next tier of Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts and Dallas Goedert are all valuable fantasy football assets.
I have no issue drafting any one of those tight ends this season. I just want them at the right price. That means I sometimes miss the boat on the position as I load up on running backs, wide receivers and an elite quarterback in the first six rounds.
If you miss out on the top seven, you’re probably better off pushing the position down the board. Take last season, for instance. In 2022, the TE8 scored 116.7 total points in half-point PPR formats. The TE15 scored 110.5 total points.
If you find yourself in that position, don’t panic. Take a deep breath, keep drafting values at other positions, then select one (or two) of these TE2s with top-five upside.
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TE2s With Top-Five Upside
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF): ADP 133.3 | TE14
No tight end in 2023 has a wider draft range than Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. In some drafts, you’ll see Kincaid come off the board in the TE8-12 range. In others, you might see him in the TE14-16 range.
It’s the classic battle of upside vs. floor and terrific talent vs. narrative. That narrative is that rookie tight ends don’t produce in year one. While that’s historically accurate, it’s also a bit of an unfair narrative to place on an individual before he’s given a chance.
Just because rookie tight ends have struggled in the past doesn’t mean Kincaid will, as well. It’s just more of a risk and would take an anomaly. Lucky for us, Kincaid has an anomaly type of skillset.
Kincaid is quick, explosive and has soft hands, as he works most of his routes out of the slot. Kincaid being deployed as a full-time slot player increases his upside over tight ends that have traditionally been in-line.
Whenever Kincaid overtakes Gabriel Davis as Josh Allen‘s No. 2 target, he has top-five tight end upside. Top 12 seems like a given with the usage he’s projected.
Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR): ADP 158 | TE16
The Los Angeles Rams are projected to be a below-average football team. And that’s being kind. We’re not exactly looking to load up on Rams in fantasy football, but even players on bad teams can be assets in this silly game.
Wide receiver Cooper Kupp is an obvious fantasy stud, but I also think Rams tight end Tyler Higbee is a tremendous value right now. The offensive environment and his own limitations might keep him from reaching top-five status, but top 12 is easily attainable with a healthy Matthew Stafford.
Higbee has finished as the PPR TE6, TE14, TE18 and TE8 over the past four seasons. Outside of Kupp, there isn’t much target competition. The players fighting for scraps behind Kupp and Higbee include wide receivers Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek and Puka Nacua.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET): ADP 169 | TE17
Another rookie and another narrative to avoid. As mentioned, I know the precedent isn’t great. Betting on rookie tight ends to produce is about as risky as betting your life savings on a 20-game parlay in a sport you’ve never watched.
That said, we’re only looking for a top-12 finish with upside for more. That’s an attainable goal for anyone, even rookies.
Enter Lions tight end Sam LaPorta, aka “Sammy Ballgame.” We pinpointed LaPorta as an under-the-radar tight-end prospect back in February, and that drumbeat has only grown louder since then.
LaPorta stood out above the rest of his Iowa teammates, and he’s already making a name for himself in Detroit’s training camp. By all accounts, LaPorta has already claimed the starting tight end spot on a team desperate for a No. 2 pass-catcher.
Amon-Ra St. Brown should receive the largest share of targets from quarterback Jared Goff. However, with Jameson Williams facing a six-game suspension to begin the season, LaPorta has every opportunity to become the next player in line. He’s an easy selection in the 14th round.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
- The Worst Fantasy Football Team You Could Draft at ADP
- 7 Safest Players to Draft
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