Touchdowns are volatile. They are hard to account for and predict, as I have mentioned before, and whilst some players massive overperform in the touchdown column, there are some that just get frightfully unlucky.
I recently published my running back negative regression touchdown candidates article. However, in this breakdown, I’m focusing exclusively on the top positive regression touchdown candidates for the position.
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Running Back Positive Regression Touchdown Candidates (2023 Fantasy Football)
Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC)
Actual Touchdowns: 5
Expected Touchdowns: 8.97
Difference: -3.97 Touchdowns
The Jacksonville Jaguars took a massive step forward in 2022. And a lot of that had to do with Travis Etienne Jr. bringing a much-needed potency to the ground game. But, whilst he was exceptional, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, he failed to get into the endzone as often as he should.
He ranked seventh amongst running backs with carries inside the five-yard line, with 13. That being said, he only converted three of those into scores, and these equaled 60% of his total touchdowns on the season. I would expect Doug Pederson will come up with other scoring plays for Etienne Jr. this season. Also, expect some positive regression on inside the five-yard line efficiency as well.
The final question mark around Etienne Jr. is if he can improve on his 255 touches in 2022. Because, if he can do that, he will absolutely smash his ADP in 2023 and become a potential league winner.
Dameon Pierce (HOU)
Actual Touchdowns: 5
Expected Touchdowns: 8.75
Difference: -3.75 Touchdowns
Dameon Pierce was an off-season darling in 2022 that paid off for a lot of fantasy players. However, whilst he represented amazing value in fantasy drafts, Pierce missed out on being a bone-fide RB2 in fantasy football in all formats due to his touchdown inefficiency.
Pierce scored four of his touchdowns inside the five-yard line (three rushing and one receiving touchdown), and he did that off of 10 touches inside the five, which is efficient enough. However, where he struggled was scoring one touchdown off of his remaining 240 touches not inside the five-yard line. Part of that was down to the putrid Texans offense, but another part of that was down to pure bad luck. It is rare a player will have 240 touches outside the five-yard line and fail to score more than once.
With a new set of coaches in Houston, a new rookie quarterback, and some new weapons, expect the efficiency and potency of the Texans’ offense to be better in 2023. And with that, more positive touchdown regression for Pierce.
More Fantasy Football Regression Coverage
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.