Here at FantasyPros, we have consensus projections for all fantasy-relevant positions. You can filter them to see which sites are higher on certain players, or take the average of the group.
In this article, we’ll take a look at some of those projections, compare them to a player’s historical performances, and give a verdict on whether they’re too low or too high for each player.
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2023 Over/Under Projections: Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Projection: 1260 rush yards, 230 receiving yards, 9.3TDs
After hitting the highest of highs in 2021, Taylor could do with a good season to prove that it wasn’t an outlier season, and that he deserves the contract he has publicly sought after. Even in 2022’s disappointing season, Taylor was rushing for 78.3 yards per game, which extrapolates to 1331 yards over the course of a season. It’s the rest of his numbers that could be shakier.
Taylor is projected for 33 receptions totaling 230 receiving yards, but his career average is 33.0 while playing with less athletic quarterbacks than Anthony Richardson. Taylor’s previous QBs were more prone to checking down to a running back.
Verdict: UNDER
Najee Harris (PIT)
Projection: 1037 rush yards, 268 receiving yards, 8.3TDs
Harris regressed in fantasy terms during 2022, partly because Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t there to check the ball down every time he panicked. Harris also has to fend off teammate Jaylen Warren, who made the most of his opportunities last season.
Warren outproduced Harris in Yards Per Carry (4.8 vs 3.8) and Yards Per Reception (8.3 vs 5.5) as a rookie last year. Harris blamed his lack of explosiveness on injuries, but it might just simply be that Warren is a more explosive player.
Verdict: UNDER
Miles Sanders (CAR)
Projection: 1005 rush yards, 209 receiving yards, 6.8TDs
The Panthers gave Sanders one of the few good running-back contracts in free agency. Since then, they’ve talked him up as a three-down threat. Sanders has averaged 65 rushing yards per game through his four years with the Eagles, and now he’s free of a committee approach.
Sanders will be running behind a good offensive line and with a rookie quarterback. It stands to reason the Panthers could lean into his rushing ability. Sanders will need to average 59 yards per game to break 1005, which doesn’t seem too tall a task.
As for Sanders’ receiving projection, he hasn’t broken 200 yards since his rookie season when he had 510. That year, he was under the guidance of new Panthers’ running back coach Duce Staley. There’s an element of risk here, but Chuba Hubbard hasn’t had a great training camp, so Sanders is unlikely to be pushed too much for the receiving duties.
Verdict: OVER
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