Running Back Projections: Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey (2023 Fantasy Football)

Here at FantasyPros, we have consensus projections for all fantasy-relevant positions. You can filter them to see which sites are higher on certain players, or take the average of the group.

In this article, we’ll take a look at some of those projections, compare them to a player’s historical performances, and give a verdict on whether they’re too low or too high for each player.

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2023 Over/Under Projections: Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey (SF)

Projection: 1011 rush yards, 632 receiving yards, 11.4TDs

Throughout this offseason, McCaffrey has been the clear RB1 in fantasy drafts. That looks unlikely to change at this point. Consensus projections have him running for over 1000 yards for the fourth time in his career as well as picking up over 600 receiving yards, which would be the fifth time in his career he surpassed that amount.

That translates to 59 rushing yards and 37 receiving yards per game. The receiving total is similarly aligned to where McCaffrey ended up in games for the Niners last year, when he averaged 43 per game.

The rushing yardage, however, might be siding on the cautious side of things. McCaffrey averaged 70.1 per game during the regular season in games for San Francisco, including four games over 90 yards. These projections might be anticipating a greater workload for Elijah Mitchell or McCaffrey to miss time with injuries. Either way, this one looks conservative.

Verdict: OVER

Austin Ekeler (LAC)

Projection: 861 rush yards, 599 receiving yards, 13.3TDs

After back-to-back seasons of 18 touchdowns, Ekeler is projected to regress in 2023. In part, because of the increased competition from pass catchers that should be healthier than last year.

Ekeler has never rushed for over 900 yards, which may surprise some people. His 861 projected rushing yards would snuggle between his 2021 and 2022 outcomes. While Ekeler isn’t a prolific rusher, he is good at that side of the game, and the running game will be upgraded by new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore along with the return of star left tackle Rashawn Slater.

The 599 projected receiving yards would average out to 35.2 per game, which would be a notable dip from Ekeler’s last four years in which he has averaged 49.9 with only one of those seasons (2021) dipping below that average. A healthy Justin Herbert may want to push the ball downfield more often, but Ekeler’s role will still likely be prominent in this offense.

Verdict: OVER

TD % on carries inside five-yard line among 25 most-used goal line RBs in 2022:

1. Austin Ekeler (75%)
2. Derrick Henry (66.7%)
3. Cam Akers (62.5%)
4. Ezekiel Elliott (56.3%)?
…
23. Rhamondre Stevenson (28.6%) ?
24. Travis Etienne (20%)
25. Kenneth Walker (11%)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 14, 2023

Josh Jacobs (LV)

Projection: 1228 rush yards, 292 receiving yards, 10.6TDs

Fresh off leading the league in rushing yards, Jacobs probably hoped to have a big fat contract by now, but it hasn’t come to fruition. He will likely sort out his differences with the Raiders at some point soon, then return to the team ready to dominate their backfield once again.

Jacobs’s rushing yardage might regress from the 1600 yards he had in 2022 and move closer to his career average of 955 per year. It’s the receiving work that really stands out though. He has been over the projection of 292 in both of the last two years. The projection of 39.8 catches would be a dip from the last two years in which Jacobs caught 50-plus.

With Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, the receptions could even increase for Jacobs. Garoppolo’s average depth of target has been under seven yards in three of the last four seasons and he looks for his RBs with regularity.

Verdict: Rushing – PUSH, Receiving – OVER