There are several ways to dominate your fantasy football draft. One of those ways is finding running backs outside the top 24 that end the year as an RB1.
Last year Tony Pollard (RB30), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB34), and Jamaal Williams (RB50) all had an ADP outside the top-24 running backs, according to FantasyData. Yet, all three ended the 2022 season inside the top-12 running backs. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs was the 23rd drafted running back last season but finished the year as the RB3, averaging 17.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high.
Which running backs drafted outside the top-24 have a chance to finish as an RB1 this year? Let’s look at six potential candidates.
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RB3s with RB1 Potential
David Montgomery (DET) – ADP 75.7 | RB30
Last year Montgomery was the RB23, averaging 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, finishing with 201 rushing attempts for 801 yards and five touchdowns while splitting the backfield work with Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert. The veteran running back has been a consistent RB2 despite playing on a poor offense, never finishing lower than the RB25 any year in his career. More importantly, he is replacing Jamaal Williams. Last season Williams was the RB8 after leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns (17) and finished second in goal-line touches (22). While Montgomery won’t have the same touchdown luck, the veteran is a better player and can do more for the Lions than Williams.
James Cook (BUF) – ADP 78.3 | RB31
The fantasy football world had high hopes for Cook last season. Unfortunately, the rookie was only the RB45, averaging six half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, that will change this year with Devin Singletary in Houston. Buffalo signed Damien Harris in free agency, but the veteran has missed 28% of the games over the past three years because of injury. Meanwhile, 13.5% of Cook’s rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards last year. He also finished first in breakaway run rate (12.1%). More importantly, Josh Allen recently praised Cook, talking about how much of a role he would have in the run and pass game this season.
Antonio Gibson (WAS) – ADP 97.7 | RB35
Unlike the other running backs in this article, Gibson has been a top-12 running back twice in his short career. Unfortunately, he was a bust last season, averaging only 9.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, the lowest average of his career. Meanwhile, Eric Bieniemy turned Jerick McKinnon into a low-end RB2 last year despite having only 72 rushing attempts, thanks to his role in the passing game. With J.D. McKissic off the field, Gibson will take over the McKinnon role in Bieniemy’s offense in Washington. More importantly, the team’s coaching staff has repeatedly mentioned the veteran this offseason. Gibson could have another top-12 finish this year, even if Brian Robinson Jr. stays healthy.
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) – ADP 113.3 | RB40
No one should ever root for injuries. However, Charbonnet is one injury away from an RB1 finish. Last season Kenneth Walker III was the RB6, averaging 14.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game after taking over for an injured Rashaad Penny. The rookie would have similar success if Walker suffered a season-ending injury. Charbonnet averaged seven yards per rushing attempt last year at UCLA, putting him in the 92nd percentile. Furthermore, he finished third in yards after contact per attempt (4.15) among running backs with at least 190 rushing attempts. While it will take a season-ending injury to Walker for Charbonnet to become a top-12 running back, the rookie has significant upside at his ADP.
De’Von Achane (MIA) – ADP 123.7 | RB41
Many have called Achane this year’s Dameon Pierce, given his competition in the backfield. Last year Miami’s running backs combined to score 352.2 half-point PPR fantasy points. If one player had earned only 60% of that fantasy production, he would have been the RB12 last season and the RB8 the year before. Furthermore, that running back would have been the RB8 last year and the RB6 in 2021, with 65% of that fantasy workload. While Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. will have a role on offense to start the season, expect Achane to be the lead guy in the backfield come October.
Editor’s Note: Achane suffered a shoulder injury in Saturday’s preseason game against the Texans. Dr. Deepak Chona speculates the injury is an AC joint sprain with the likelihood he is near 100% by Week 1.
Jaylen Warren (PIT) – ADP 158.3 | RB50
Warren is arguably the top handcuff in fantasy football this year. Following his successful rookie season, the former Oklahoma State star will have a larger role in 2023. Last year the undrafted free agent running back averaged 4.9 yards per rushing attempt, seeing 14.3% of his rushing attempt go for 10 or more yards. Furthermore, he finished 21st in yards after contact per rushing attempt last season (3.08) among running backs with at least 60 rushing attempts. By comparison, Najee Harris averaged 2.75 yards after contact per rushing attempt last year. If Harris gets hurt or potentially benched, Warren will have top-12 upside.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
