It’s been quite the offseason for NFL running backs and their agents. We’ve had more disgruntled star running backs make headlines than I can ever remember, and the free agent carousel moved slower than any I’ve ever ridden. There are still a handful of accomplished free agent ball carriers who would have typically been scooped up by now.

As the NFL market shifts for the position, I can’t help but think about fantasy football being ahead of the curve. The age and/or carry cliff has been discussed in fantasy circles for years. It’s no secret in dynasty leagues that the move is to draft a young stud, ride him for a few years, and dump him while he still has value for a newer model. It seems the league is taking a similar approach these days.

In reality, running backs should be on a different contract structure as their prime hits earlier. Still, no matter how you slice it, the way NFL teams are handling the position is impacting fantasy. Some top players may sit out, but there are also more relevant players at the position with a path to playing time and success. As wide receivers have risen up draft boards, the running back dead zone feels more alive than the Undertaker at Smackdown.

As such, fantasy football average draft position (ADP) feels tighter and more aligned than it has in recent years. Even so, there are a few names too high on the list for my liking.

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Overvalued RBs Based on ADP

Najee Harris (PIT) – ADP 28 | RB11

A first-round pick in 2021, Najee Harris has finished as the RB3 and RB14 while tallying 2,930 yards across his first two seasons. On the surface, it seems as though a player like this couldn’t be drafted high enough, and yet his RB11 price tag in PPR formats is too rich for me.

While Harris was undoubtedly successful in 2021 and 2022, he has done so largely due to a massive workload. His 307 rush attempts were the second-most in 2021, and his 272 were the fifth-most in 2022. Along with the heavy workload, Harris finished 26.1 points behind his expected fantasy point total in 2022 and 33.7 below his projected total in 2021, per PFF. Those marks were the third-worst and fourth-worst, respectively, among all NFL running backs. The sizeable volume has made up for the lack of efficiency in Harris’ game, particularly in 2021, when the next closest Steelers running back touched the ball just 38 times.

Last year, however, Jaylen Warren flashed as a potential threat to Harris’ workload. Warren played at least 40% of the snaps in four of the team’s final eight games last season. He has now garnered a bit of offseason hype, and for good reason. Warren was flat-out better than Harris on a per-touch basis with 4.7 true yards per carry and 5.6 per touch compared to 3.7 and 4.0 for Harris.

The undrafted rookie posted the second-most expected points added among all running backs with 26.1. Meanwhile, the former first-round pick finished 154^th with -51.7. I’m not projecting Warren to take over the starting role, but Harris has yet to convince me that he’s an above-average running back. A dent in his workload would be enough for him to tumble down into the RB2/3 range, and there are plenty of receivers I’d rather have going around 28 overall.

Travis Etienne (JAX) – ADP 31 | RB12

After missing his entire rookie season with a Lisfranc injury, Travis Etienne displayed the traits that made him a first-round pick when he finished as the RB17 last season. He took the starting job from James Robinson, which seemed impressive then and finished with 1125 rushing yards, 316 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

However, his 12.1 fantasy points per game were just the 23^rd among RBs, and there were some disappointing factors to his game. For starters, Etienne was lauded as a special receiving talent out of the backfield but boasted a 49.8 PFF receiving grade. His target share was smaller than anticipated at 7.8%, as was his route participation of 41.1%. In addition, Etienne accumulated 13 carries inside the five-yard line, good for the eighth-highest mark, but converted just three of them for touchdowns. He carried 43 times in the red zone, the fifth-highest total while converting just four into touchdowns.

Perhaps Tank Bigsby is more suitable for the goal-line role. Bigsby, the Jaguars’ third-round selection, is currently boarding his hype train, and I must admit, I was one of the first few standing in line. If the buzz out of training camp is legit, Bigsby can garner some of that red zone work and push for a bigger role than anticipated.

Serious question: why isn’t Tank Bigsby getting more love?

His 976 rushing yards last season don’t stand out, but 740 of those came after contact. That’s 76% of his rushing yards after contact❗️

Contact balance is one of my biggest green flags for RBs, but that’s not all he has

— The Fantasy Football Chad (@tweetsbychad) April 21, 2023

Head Coach Doug Pederson recently praised Bigsby as a “sponge,” also citing his ability as a receiver:

“I would even say he’s a better pass catcher. Of course, in college, they didn’t throw it to him a bunch, but he’s a really good pass catcher.”

Even if Bigsby does nothing more than take on goal-line work and chip away at some of the receiving work, it will be enough to limit Etienne’s upside and make it tough for him to eclipse his ADP.

Rachaad White (TB) – ADP 63 | RB21

Although Rachaad White doesn’t require as much of an investment as the first two names on this list, I struggle to understand why he’s being drafted as RB21 with names like JK Dobbins, Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers going later.

Yes, the Buccaneers let go of Leonard Fournette, and the job appears to be White’s. Still, he hardly earned it with his showing as a rookie when he was one of the least efficient running backs in the league. His 3.6 true yards per carry landed at 65^th at the position, while his 4.3 yards per touch were 48^th. His -20.2 expected points added were 137^th, and his 2.54 yards created per touch were 35^th. He posted a 3.1% breakaway run rate and his fantasy point per opportunity of .74 left him at 50^th.

Arguably, the strongest part of White’s game is his receiving, in which PFF graded him out at 69.2. For what it’s worth, that was the highest grade he received. I understand that no running back was successful behind the Bucaneers’ offensive line last season. But if that’s your stance, boy, do I have bad news for you. Things won’t get any easier for this offense.

D’Andre Swift (PHI) – ADP 69 | RB27

Wash, rinse and repeat. It seems that D’Andre Swift makes this list every season for me, and it’s worked out so far. I understand the upside case with Swift, and he’s found a new home. He is also going much later than in years past, but he still stands out like a sore thumb as I scroll through the ADP. There are many receivers I prefer here, along with other running backs. Still, I also cannot fathom why he’s being drafted 55 picks ahead of his teammate, Rashaad Penny.

Of course, there are injury concerns with Penny, but the same can be said of Swift. Plus, let’s not overestimate our ability to predict future injuries. Penny has at least shown the ability to be a successful every-down running back. Swift is explosive, and perhaps the change of scenery and stout Philadelphia offensive line will open up running lanes wide enough that he can’t miss.

But I’m not betting on it. Penny is averaging 94.2 rushing yards per start, second best since 2020, and he isn’t his only competition. Jalen Hurts is one of the better running quarterbacks in the game and carried the ball 20 times inside the five-yard line last season. RB27 off the board doesn’t seem like a rich spot to draft somebody like Swift, but with Penny going much later, along with other running backs and receivers that are more solidified, it’s too rich for me.

More Players to Target & Avoid

• Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
• Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
• Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
• Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
• How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
• Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
• Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
• Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
• DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
• Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
• Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
• Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
• Players to Avoid in Each Round
• Late-Round Draft Targets
• Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
• Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
• Late-Round WR Targets
• Late-Round TE Targets
• Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
• WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
• Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
• 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
• 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts

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