Avoiding players who are being over-hyped heading into the season is paramount to being successful in your fantasy football leagues. That’s especially true in high-stakes leagues like those in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
Here are two players going early in FFPC drafts that you should consider avoiding on your way to FFPC glory.
Over the course of the offseason, you will be able to use our ADP (Average Draft Position) tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites along with our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based on average draft position. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.
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Overpriced Players to Avoid on FFPC (Fantasy Football 2023)
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL): ADP 8, RB3
For the second time in three years, the fantasy football community is anointing an Atlanta Falcons rookie as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. This time, it’s University of Texas standout RB Bijan Robinson. While there’s no denying the talent, we must remember that this is still an Arthur Smith-coached team. Yes, it is going to be a run-centric offense, but drafting Robinson as the overall RB3 is a mistake you won’t want to make this season.
It would be a fool’s errand to compare Robinson, the most sought-after offensive player in the NFL Draft, to incumbent RBs Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier. However, after a stellar 2021 campaign, Patterson split work with then-rookie Allgeier and neither eclipsed 250 carries. Allgeier had the better fantasy finish, notching 210 carries, 1,053 rushing yards, and three touchdowns as the overall PPR RB29. Furthermore, Smith was recently quoted as saying that it’s no guarantee any of the three will get a majority of carries this season, and they’ll go with whoever has the “hot hand” at the moment.
I’m certainly not suggesting Robinson will be a bust in 2023. His talent is undeniable, and his situation couldn’t be better. The Falcons ran the ball on 55.29 percent of plays in 2022, and there’s little sign that will change this season, especially with Desmond Ridder behind center. However, he is unlikely to live up to the high expectations managers have put on his shoulders this season and he isn’t worth the risk in your high-stakes FFPC leagues.
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN): ADP 61, RB18
The hype for former-Dalvin Cook-handcuff Alexander Mattison has peaked as the fantasy football season approaches. When the Vikings released Cook earlier in the offseason, most assumed that Mattison would step into the bell cow RB role that Cook occupied the previous four seasons.
In his first four years in Minnesota, he averaged a meager 101 carries and 417.5 yards per season and scored 11 touchdowns. With his only real competition for touches being Kene Nwangwu and Ty Chandler, it’s almost a given that he will see an uptick in volume and opportunity. However, those touches could be limited in what will likely be one of the most pass-happy offenses in the league. Minnesota ranked third in pass-play percentage last season (64.38) and added University of Southern California WR Jordan Addison in the draft. Furthermore, Mattison hasn’t been efficient when given the ball, averaging 3.75 yards per carry over the last two seasons.
The one saving grace for Mattison could be his efficiency in the passing game. He has caught 72 of 80 targets in his career for 526 yards and three touchdowns. However, the Minnesota offense doesn’t give much volume in the passing attack to RBs. Cook was targeted 50 times in 2022 and had a career-high of 62 targets in 2019. With the existence of Justin Jefferson, the addition of Addison and an entire season of T.J. Hockenson, it’s likely that the number of targets to RBs will drop even more in 2023.
As with any player I’m fading, it’s all about their ADP. Mattison has a path to being a backend RB2 this season, but right now, he is being drafted at his ceiling. He is more likely to finish somewhere between RB24 and RB32 than to live up to his current draft slot. It’s a smarter bet to take a chance on Bills RB James Cook, Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White, or the Ravens’ J.K. Dobbins. All are going in a similar range in drafts with far less risk attached.
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.