Avoiding players who are being over-hyped heading into the season is paramount to being successful in your fantasy football leagues. That’s especially true in high-stakes leagues like those in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
Here are two players going early in FFPC drafts that you should consider avoiding on your way to FFPC glory.
Over the course of the offseason, you will be able to use our ADP (Average Draft Position) tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites along with our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based on average draft position. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.
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Overpriced Players To Avoid on NFFC (2023 Fantasy Football)
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) | ADP 14, WR9
It’s been fairly evident that since the Aaron Rodgers signing in New York, the Jets have seen their player’s fantasy values skyrocket. Garrett Wilson might be the biggest beneficiary of this jump. Last season’s WR21 has seen his value jump immensely, currently going as the 8th overall WR in FFPC drafts.
It’s easy to understand why managers are so bullish on Wilson. While he was a backend WR2 in 2022, that was with poor QB play from a host of different starters at QB, including consensus bust Zach Wilson and veteran Joe Flacco, who has seen better days. Future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers is an obvious upgrade at the position to what the Jets rolled out last season. Naturally, we assume that Wilson will see a massive jump in catchable passes, leading to a boom in fantasy points for the second-year receiver. Not so fast.
Yes, logic would dictate that Wilson will excel with the team’s new star QB. However, how much higher can Wilson realistically go? Last season, he had almost no target competition, seeing 147 in 17 games. The next closest were TE Tyler Conklin (87) and WR Elijah Moore (65). Wilson managed 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns. If he sees similar target volume this season, we expect an increase in catch percentage with a more accurate passer in Rodgers. That is unlikely to happen, however.
To woo Rodgers to the Big Apple, the Jets signed two of his favorite targets from his days as a Cheesehead; Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. While Cobb had a respectable 50 targets in 2022, Lazard led the team with 100. In addition, Lazard was second on the team in receiving touchdowns with six. To be clear, I don’t believe Wilson will be a bust or even fall out of the WR1 tier of players in 2023. However, it’s unlikely he can live up to his WR8 ADP without an injury, and he is better left off your squad at his current value.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) ADP 17, RB6
Winning in fantasy football is about getting good value with every draft pick. Sometimes that means you have to fade a player based on their current situation, which is the case with Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. I was already fading Taylor before the NFL Training Camp drama broke out, but now there are even more questions around the running back. At this point, he’s a risk to take as early as he’s still going.
Fading Taylor at his current ADP has more to do with other players involved than with Taylor himself. Coming off a 2021 RB1 finish, hopes were high for Taylor in 2022. Unfortunately, the talented ball carrier missed seven games and finished the season as the PPR RB33. Of course, you have to account for the missed time. However, he was RB16 in points per game in a system that should have allowed him to flourish like he did the season before.
Now, heading into 2023, the team has a new coach in former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and rookie QB Anthony Richardson. This could be bad news for Taylor for a few reasons.
First and foremost, it’s been noted repeatedly that when a team has a mobile, athletic QB like Richardson, the RB position suffers statistically. Richardson appears to be the front-runner to start for the Colts this season, and it’s no secret that his arm talent is raw. This likely means we will see a downturn in rushing volume for Taylor, who has averaged 17.5 carries per game over his first three seasons. Additionally, he will likely see fewer goalline opportunities with Richardson’s size and athleticism.
The second is thanks to the new head coach. Steichen, who tutored Jalen Hurts to become an MVP candidate in 2022, is primed to do the same for Richardson this season. Miles Sanders, the Eagles’ lead RB last season, averaged just 15.2 carries per game, finishing as the PPR RB15. In addition, he saw his passing volume plummet with the emergence of Hurts, going from an average of 57.5 targets to 30 in the last two seasons.
Of course, Taylor can still have a fantastic season, but there is a cap in the new-look Colts offense. While he is going as the RB5 in your FFPC drafts, history tells us he will finish outside the top 10. Taylor is unlikely to be a worthwhile return on investment at his current ADP this season.
More Fantasy Football Commissioner Site Guides
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- Yahoo (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- RTSports (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- NFFC (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- Fantrax (Undervalued | Overvalued)
- MFL (Undervalued | Overvalued)
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.