Must-Have Players: Quentin Johnston, Rashod Bateman, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2023 Fantasy Football)

Break out the sunscreen, a fan, and a tank top. The temperatures have reached scorching levels, which can mean only one thing outside of the fact that I’m safe inside with my spreadsheets, AC, and best ball drafts. Fantasy football season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start prepping for your leagues. Don’t worry, I’ve been grinding all offseason and have prepared a list of the players I’ll be looking to draft a ton this year. And below you’ll find a few free picks to help you prepare. Let’s have a great season.

More Fantasy Football Advice
Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE

Derek Brown’s Players to Target

Here are a few of my players to target in 2023 fantasy football.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)

The Jaxon Smith-Njigba discourse is fun

No I’m not fading him because he went to SEA.

SEA can easily go 11 heavy with JSN

JSN is one Lockett or DK injury away from making a big tg share leap in szn

JSN could establish himself as the WR2 in this offense in year 1 even with a… pic.twitter.com/LyEIUi2wg5

— Derek Brown (aka Ugly John Daigle) (@DBro_FFB) May 4, 2023

Since Jaxon Smith-Njigba was announced as the Seahawks’ pick in the NFL Draft, worries have been circulating about Seattle’s usage of three wide receiver sets and his target share with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. These are valid concerns, but before I push back against them, let’s discuss Smith-Njigba as a talent. In 2021, he was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba gets typecast as a low aDOT player, but he has also shown the ability to win downfield. In 2022, he was ninth in yards per route run and tied for first in PFF’s deep receiving grade (minimum 15 deep targets per PFF). Smith-Njigba is an elite-level prospect. With that said, I have a hard time believing the Seahawks burnt a first-round pick on a player they don’t plan to feature, so I believe they will run a ton of 11 personnel in 2023. Regarding the subject of target share, Smith-Njigba can put those concerns to rest quickly and hit the ground running as the second option in this passing attack. While I don’t want to take anything away from Tyler Lockett, he hasn’t been a high-end target earner. Over the last four seasons, he’s never ranked higher than 36th in target per route run rate. The addition of Smith-Njigba can allow Lockett to return to stretching the field. Since 2019, he’s ranked top-12 in deep targets twice. Last year he logged the second-lowest aDOT of his career and the lowest YAC per reception mark. Smith-Njigba should garner targets early and often in 2023. Draft him and enjoy.

Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL)

Rashod Bateman looked like a receiver on his way to a breakout campaign before his season was derailed by a foot sprain in Week 4 and ultimately ended in Week 8 with a LisFranc injury. In Weeks 1-3, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, a 30.3% air yard share, and 3.14 yards per route run. He was also only a 72.7% route per dropback player in that stretch. Bateman’s talent is real, but he needs his health to comply and this could be a breaking point season. The team signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft. This will be the best collection of weapons Lamar Jackson has ever had, but that also means it’s the most competition for targets Bateman has dealt with during his time in Baltimore. He has the talent to still emerge as the number one receiver in this offense and compete weekly with Mark Andrews to the team lead in targets with Mark Andrews. He’s a WR3/4 that could easily finish as a WR2.

Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)

Quentin Johnston's slot % in 2023 will surprise people

Last year among all FBS WRs with at least 25 slot tgs

Johnston (25.8% of his target volume – in the slot)

1st in slot YPRR
1st in slot YAC/rec

Last year despite people thinking of Keenan Allen as a slot only sloth:… pic.twitter.com/w2VAHyKdLX

— Derek Brown (aka Ugly John Daigle) (@DBro_FFB) May 30, 2023

Ok, Deep breath. Here’s the list of injuries Mike Williams has sustained since entering the NFL: herniated disk, knee strain, back spasms, hamstring strain, hip flexor strain, high ankle sprain (twice), and transverse process fracture. I bring this up because Quentin Johnston could be operating as the Chargers’ WR2 sooner rather than later. That type of upside in his rookie season shouldn’t be ignored in an offensive system that could challenge for the league lead in passing attempts and play volume. Even if he doesn’t supplant Williams this season, Johnston offers this offense a different element as a YAC specialist. Last year, Johnston ranked sixth in YAC per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Kellen Moore can design looks for Justin Herbert to get Johnston the ball in space and let him do his thing.