Must-Have Draft Targets: Justin Herbert, Tony Pollard, Jerry Jeudy (2023 Fantasy Football)

Here are a few of the players I’m targeting in 2023 fantasy football drafts. Upgrade to our premium subscription to view my full list of 2023 must-have draft targets.

Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Fantasy Football Draft Players to Target

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

Justin Herbert is one of my favorite “elite” quarterbacks to draft. As I have echoed numerous times in my QB Best Ball Primer, the name of the game with the quarterback position is still value drafting. And the fact that one can draft Herbert – who scored the second-most fantasy points among all players in 2021, averaging 23.3 points per game – as the QB7 off the board is beyond elite fantasy value. Keep in mind that last season, Herbert played just four games with a fully healthy combination of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He also suffered a rib injury which further limited his fantasy production.

Considering all the injuries, it should surprise no one that Herbert posted a career-low 3.6% TD rate, nearly two percentage points down from the previous season. As a result, Herbert also failed to eclipse 22 fantasy points per game, a mark he surpassed as a rookie and in his second season. But with fully healthy weapons, first-round pick Quentin Johnston added to the fold, and Kellen Moore taking over as the offensive play caller, there’s never been a better time to BUY Herbert’s suppressed ADP. In Moore’s first season as the Cowboys offensive coordinator, Dak Prescott finished second in the NFL in passing yards (4,902).

And as I mentioned earlier, only Josh Allen scored more fantasy points than Herbert did in 2021. The Chargers quarterback is being drafted outside the first four rounds. But all indications are he should bounce back in a big way, giving fantasy managers a mega edge selecting outside the top-6 quarterbacks per ADP. Consider this. Herbert has the second shortest odds on some sportsbooks to lead the NFL in passing yards (+700). Makes sense considering he has tossed for 4,700-plus yards in back-to-back seasons. Over the last five seasons, no quarterback that had led the NFL in passing yards has finished outside the top-5 at the position, with four of the five finishing inside the top 3.

Herbert provides fantasy managers the easiest path to elite quarterback fantasy production that doesn’t require a Round 2 or 3 pick.

The Chargers have gone from second overall in team ADP down to fifth.

Mike Williams went from WR15, a Round 3 pick to WR27 in Round 5.

Keenan Allen went from WR13, a Round 3 pick to WR17 in early Round 4.

Justin Herbert has fallen from the QB2 to the QB7.

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 20, 2023

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)

With Ezekiel Elliott no longer on the roster, Tony Pollard will have the opportunity to take over as the team’s lead back. Last season, he finished as the RB7 in fantasy despite ranking outside the top 25 in touches per game. He was a top-12 running back in 40% of his games which ranked 8th best. Pollard’s efficiency was on full display as he averaged 5.3 yards per carry and was the third-highest-graded running back by PFF. From Weeks 7-16, Pollard was the highest-scoring running back in fantasy with 19.3 points per game while playing as the team’s featured back. Although the Cowboys added Ronald Jones in free agency and drafted Deuce Vaughn late in the 2023 draft, neither player poses a significant threat to Pollard’s touch volume. Even if Dallas eventually does bring in another body, Pollard’s efficient play style will mitigate any workload limitations.

My favorite fantasy football running back stats

Find out who can be a league winner?

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 15, 2023

His top-3 status during his elite stretch in PPR matches exactly where the FantasyPros PPR projections have Pollard slated…as the RB3 overall in 2023. With little competition in Dallas’ backfield, the projections suggest we might not be HIGH enough on the Cowboys’ new RB1, who is being drafted as the RB7 per ADP.

RB Tony Pollard

Wks 7-16 2022

-19.3 half-PPR ppg (1st)
-21 PPR ppg (3rd)
-58% snap% (20th)
-13% tgt share (9th)
-110 yds/gm (3rd)
-17.9 tch/gm (12th)
-4.2 tgt/gm (12th)
-10 TDs. 2x vs expectation
-13.9 xpoints per game (RB7 same as his finish)

RB7 ADP?

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 25, 2023

Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)

Jerry Jeudy impressed tremendously down the stretch when healthy. No player scored more fantasy points in (PPR) with a sub-75% overall route participation or posted higher yards per route run versus man coverage than Jeudy last season. He also finished 13th in target rate per route run (23%).

And in Jeudy’s last six games, he earned a 25% target share and finished fifth in receiving yards overall. From Week 10 onward, the Broncos wide receiver led the NFL in yards per route run (2.71). He was averaging the 10th-most fantasy points per game from Week 7 onward in half-PPR (13.5).

Obviously, any upgraded quarterback play is great for Jeudy because he easily projects as the No. 1 WR on the offense from a volume perspective. And last year, he finally showed that he could score fantasy points finishing as the WR21, after failing to crack the top-45 his first two years in the league. With great route-running and separation skills to boot, Jeudy’s stock should continue to rise.