Some players generate a wide range of opinions or a divide within the fantasy football community. These players with a high standard deviation are considered polarizing because the range of opinions, rankings and projections means there isn’t a clear consensus. Some of these players will be busts. Some will be breakouts. Others will be somewhere in between. What matters is identifying why these players are polarizing and then determining just how risky they are and how you value them relative to your league and settings.
Our analysts combed through the expert consensus rankings (ECR) and identified the most polarizing players at each position. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
- Identifying Rookie WR1s & WR2s | 6 Wide Receivers Most Likely to Become WR1s
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Polarizing Quarterbacks
Who is one QB with a high standard deviation you are higher or lower on, and why?
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)
“I’m very bullish on Anthony Richardson and have him ranked as my QB12. I think he is the highest-ceiling quarterback being drafted outside of the top 12 QBs right now. His rushing ability will provide an excellent floor in a way that won’t lose you your week. Meanwhile, in his final year at Florida, he had a 42.1% completion rate on throws at least 20 yards downfield, showing his deep-passing capabilities. He’s a star in the making and could be a league-winner this year.”
– Sam Hoppen (FantasyPros)
“Anthony Richardson has the highest standard deviation of any quarterback in the top 20, and I have him ranked QB13, five spots higher than ECR. Richardson’s passing stats won’t be pretty, but he’s probably going to be a prolific runner from the jump. The 6-4, 244-pound Richardson ran a 4.43 at the NFL Scouting Combine and will be working under new Colts head coach Shane Steichen, who as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator presided over Jalen Hurts‘ ascendance to elite fantasy QB status. Granted, I wouldn’t feel entirely comfortable having Richardson as my top quarterback in a 1QB league, but his immense rushing upside makes him attractive in superflex leagues and in larger 1QB leagues where it makes sense to draft a second quarterback.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
“The gas tank is full, and there’s plenty of room on the Daniel Jones party bus. Grab a cold beverage and take your seat. It’s going to be a wonderful ride for 2023. Last year Daniel Jones was the QB10 in fantasy points per game while heavily relying on his legs. Jones finished fifth in rushing yards, carries per game, and red zone carries per game. The Giants added a truckload of role-playing wide receivers and a dynamic seam-stretching tight end with Darren Waller to assist Jones with taking another step as a passer in 2023. Jones has top-five fantasy quarterback upside this season. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
“Geno Smith. I am higher on him because nobody seems to believe he can run back what he did last season…even though he’s been productive for Seattle over the last TWO seasons. Smith has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in his 20 starts for the Seahawks since 2021. Additionally, all the Seahawks did during the draft was invest in No. 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Anything but fantasy QB1 territory is still too cheap for Chef Geno. He should be viewed as a low-end fantasy QB1.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
“I’m very in on Jordan Love this season, at least relative to cost. Love’s highest ranking in ECR is 17, and his lowest is 34th, so he definitely fits the bill of polarizing. And considering he’s following up a first-ballot Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers, pressure is high. Love has all the physical talent in the world, a great young offensive-minded head coach, sneaky-good skill players surrounding him, and of course, had the benefit of sitting and learning for multiple years behind Rodgers. I’m not saying Love is a no-brainer smash hit this season, but I am saying the upside is better than his QB21 ECR suggests.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Polarizing Running Backs
Who is one RB with a high standard deviation you are higher or lower on, and why?
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
“I really like Khalil Herbert, as he was one of the most efficient running backs last year, but Roschon Johnson was one of my favorite prospects this year. Herbert was drafted by the previous regime, and he was never given a full workload last year despite that efficiency. Roschon Johnson was one of the most efficient backs in college football last year but was stuck behind Bijan Robinson, so he had a limited workload. A fourth-round draft pick isn’t a huge investment, but it does tell me the team may not be sold on Herbert. I also believe that Johnson is the best-receiving threat of the three Bears running backs, which would add some value to his profile.”
– Sam Hoppen (FantasyPros)
Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)
“I remain lower than the consensus on Alexander Mattison. Mattison has been increasingly inefficient yearly in his NFL career. His yards after contact per attempt have dropped in the last four seasons, while his yards per route run has dipped over the last three years. Last season he only managed one run of 15-plus yards with his 74 carries. These aren’t traits you want in a “workhorse back.” Mattison could be the lead guy in Minnesota, but it’s equally possible that one of the other backs on this depth chart overtakes him in the season. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
“Dolphins rookie De’Von Achane quickens my pulse. He has an ECR of RB of RB44 and the second-highest standard deviation of any running back in the top 50. I have him at RB36. Achane has game-breaking 4.32 speed and exceptional contact balance. He’s only 188 pounds, which will scare off a lot of drafters, but Achane averaged 23.2 touches a game at Texas A&M last fall and was routinely asked to run between the tackles. With each passing day, the Dolphins are less likely to sign a veteran RB, leaving Achane to compete with 31-year-old Raheem Mostert and career backup Jeff Wilson in a Miami offense that ranked seventh in DVOA last season. Achane is a hand-in-glove fit for Mike McDaniel’s wide-zone offense and is a terrific value in fantasy drafts.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
“I think I am finally coming around on Joe Mixon. Think he’s being written off a bit after a so-so season in 2022, but there’s a case to be made he could deliver a massive 2023 season in potentially his last year as a Bengal. He plays on a high-powered offense and is due for positive TD regression. He finished 2nd in carries from inside the 10 last season but scored just 5 TDs. He was 6th overall in touches per game. And he has no backfield competition after the Bengals failed to replace Samaje Perine. If he was hitting his age 30-season, there would be obvious concerns. But he will be 27 this year, so I hardly say he’s completely finished as a fantasy asset. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Gus Edwards (RB – BAL)
“Gus Edwards is ranked as RB54, and his rankings range from RB42 all the way down to RB73 in Half-PPR. Consider me extremely interested in Edwards at his current price. On the Ravens depth chart, Edwards is RB2 behind JK Dobbins and is probably the third rushing option in the offense when you take into account Lamar Jackson too. But Dobbins is holding out this summer and possibly still recovering from an injury, giving Edwards a leg up in learning Todd Monken’s new playbook. The offensive line in Baltimore is loaded, Lamar is back, and the only RB ahead of Edwards on the depth chart is falling behind. And oh, by the way, Edwards has never once averaged under 5 yards per carry in an NFL season. At this price, give me ALL the Gus Edwards this season.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Get the FantasyPros News App for iOS and Android now 
Polarizing Wide Receivers
Who is one WR with a high standard deviation you are higher or lower on, and why?
Darius Slayton (WR – NYG)
“The New York Giants continue to invest in slot wide receivers, and Darius Slayton is one of the few returning players who lined up outside on more than 70% of his snaps. His 12.5-yard average depth of target led the team last year, and as perhaps the only deep-play threat on the team, he is poised to have some massive weeks. Sign me up for as much Slayton as possible this year!”
– Sam Hoppen (FantasyPros)
Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)
“It’s possible Deebo Samuel burns me this season, but I’ll continue fading him. Without the rushing equity and high-leverage roles to help pad his fantasy production, Samuel dissolved into a WR3. The results were even more frightening with Christian McCaffrey as a full-time player in the 49er offense last year. Samuel was WR58, WR5, WR66, and WR33 in that four-game sample in weekly fantasy scoring. Thanks but no thanks. If I draft a 49ers wide receiver, it’ll be Brandon Aiyuk. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)
“Calvin Ridley has the highest standard deviation of any receiver in the top 40. His ECR is WR18. I’m a little cooler on Ridley, putting him at WR22, and that’s after bumping up Ridley in my rankings a few weeks ago. There’s no doubting Ridley’s talent, and it’s possible he picks up right where he left off after not playing since early in the 2021 season. But it’s been a long layoff, Ridley has never played with QB Trevor Lawrence before, and there’s ample target competition in Jacksonville with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Zay Flowers. Ridley’s current price seems a tad steep.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
“Nobody wants to draft Chris Godwin. He’s ranked outside the top-24 in ECR. But guys. This dude literally posted 104 catches and 1,000 yards in 15 games played…coming off a torn ACL in December 2021. All anybody cares about is the fact that Tom Brady is gone, and the offense won’t pass as much. Yes, both of those are true. But Tampa Bay can still pass the ball as a top-10 rate of their trailing in games. And that will benefit Godwin, who thrives as a WR after the catch. Given Godwin’s YAC-ability (15th in yards after the catch per reception last season), he could make up ground for poor QB play. Cannot wait to see what he can do another year removed from his ACL injury. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – BAL)
“Odell Beckham Jr. is ranked as high as WR35 by some experts and as low as WR102 by others. His consensus ranking is WR57, and I will be avoiding him at that price. Beckham is at the age where we can’t just assume he’ll be back to full strength coming off a knee injury that kept him out for the entirety of the 2022 season. Plus, this Ravens offense has more options than in previous years, including Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers. Beckham isn’t going to just get out of bed and see 100+ targets, even in a new-look offense. There’s a world in which Beckham winds up as only the 4th-most targeted receiver in this offense, and that’s not somebody I’m interested in right now.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Polarizing Tight Ends
Who is one TE with a high standard deviation you are higher or lower on, and why?
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)
“I really liked Sam LaPorta as a prospect, especially in a loaded tight end class, but the lack of success that rookie tight ends have in the NFL is long documented. Since 2000, there have only been five recorded seasons of a rookie tight end scoring at least 150 PPR points in a season (which would have been good for TE14 overall last year). The Lions are an offense that profiles as one that is not super friendly for tight ends, so I’m going to bet on history repeating itself. ”
– Sam Hoppen (FantasyPros)
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
“I remain bullish on Dalton Kincaid‘s upside for 2023. Yes, I know rookie tight ends don’t historically hit the ground running, but I’m willing to go out on a limb with Kincaid. The talent is evident after Kincaid ranked second in yards per route run and first in receiving grade last year among collegiate tight ends (per PFF). Add in that he’ll operate in one of the league’s best offenses with an MVP candidate under center, and you can see the upside path for this year. Kincaid can break the mold. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“I hate to say it since I love the talent and the landing spot, but there’s just no way I’ll be drafting Dalton Kincaid at TE18. Great pick in dynasty, and you could very easily paint a picture of Kincaid being the Travis Kelce to Josh Allen‘s Patrick Mahomes, but it is just too rare for rookie tight ends to be worth a draft pick. Even Kelce himself made zero impact during his rookie season before it was cut short by injury. Much has been made of the Bills needing more receiving help beyond Stefon Diggs, but I’m a believer in Gabe Davis as a post-hype sleeper, and Josh Allen isn’t going to just forget about Dawson Knox. Dalton Kincaid is a great talent in a great offense, but you’ll never go broke betting against rookie tight ends.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Taysom Hill (TE – NO)
“Taysom Hill. His ECR is TE19, and he has the highest standard deviation of any top-35 tight end. I have him at TE30. Never mind the fact that Hill isn’t actually a tight end. His usage is wildly unpredictable, and his fantasy point totals are all over the place. Hill finished TE5 in half-point PPR scoring last year, but that included a 34.1-point performance in which he had three touchdowns and a handful of other double-digit games. He finished with 4.5 or fewer fantasy points on six occasions. I’m guessing the Saints will use Hill as a wildcat QB less frequently this season now that they have Derek Carr at quarterback instead of Andy Dalton. And, oh, by the way, Hill turns 33 shortly before the start of the new season.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Darren Waller (TE – NYG)
“If Darren Waller stays healthy, he is going to smash in fantasy football. He is going to be the ALPHA pass-catcher in the Giants’ offense, and being the No. 1 in an offense is a rare feat. I get why those are out due to his injuries the last two seasons, but he was still efficient when played last year. Waller finished second in the NFL in yards per reception (13.9) and 10th in yards per route run. He also posted the second-highest rate of top-6 finishes (38%). There’s enough of a discount at TE7 ADP that considers the injury risk. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
