Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is medium-sized. It has eight games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The picks for the slate are reduced to three starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A righty with favorable home splits is the top-ranked pitcher tonight. He's followed by a lefty with rock-solid betting info as the best SP2 in cash games at DK. And the third pitcher is volatile. However, his low salary and potential for the occasional DFS-friendly start makes him a sweet GPP pick.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. PHI
Gausman's posted excellent advanced metrics at home since joining the Blue Jays in free agency before the 2022 season. According to FanGraphs, in 150.1 innings at home since last year, he's had a 3.71 ERA, 2.61 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 5.1 BB% and 31.3 K%. Gausman's ERA was rock-solid, but his ERA estimators were much better.
The veteran righty has also pitched well lately. In 23.1 innings in his previous four starts, he's had a 3.09 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 2.98 SIERA, 1.16 WHIP, 5.4 BB%, 32.3 K% and 31.4 CSW%. Gausman's punchout ability should shine through tonight.
The Phillies are 17th in wRC+ (98) and have a 23.3 K% versus righties in 2023. And they're tied for 13th in wRC+ (96) and have a 24.9 K% on the road this year. In addition, the betting info is stellar. According to Betting Pros, the Blue Jays are -157, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
James Paxton (BOS) at WAS
In Paxton's previous four starts spanning 21.1 innings, he's had a 2.95 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 5.4 BB%, 23.7 K% and 27.0 CSW%. The lefty's numbers were a mixed bag in those turns. Still, Paxton's xFIP was decent.
The same is true for his matchup tonight, as it's fine. The Nationals are tied for 15th in wRC+ (98) in the previous 30 days. And Washington is 20th in wRC+ (96) at home this year. The betting info is the final straw for including Paxton in this piece. The Red Sox are -170.
GPP Recommendation:
MacKenzie Gore (WAS) vs. BOS
Gore has had an ugly 5.27 ERA in his previous five starts, totaling 27.1 innings. However, his 4.55 xFIP wasn't as dreadful, and the lefty's 27.2 CSW% wasn't bad.
Gore's risky, but the Red Sox might bring the best out of him tonight. Boston is 17th in wRC+ (97) in the previous 30 days. And the Red Sox are tied for 21st in wRC+ (92) and have a 23.4 K% on the road this season.
Top Lineup Stacks
Atlanta's five-run effort last night was a relative disappointment, speaking to how absurdly good their offense has been this year. The Braves are first in wRC+ (122) and ISO (.223) against righties in 2023. They're first in wRC+ (138) and ISO (.244) in the last 30 days. And Atlanta is second in wRC+ (130) and first in ISO (.242) at home. The sky's the limit tonight against rookie Randy Vasquez, regardless of if he makes a traditional start or follows an opener.
- Road (Kauffman Stadium)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Mariners hung 10 runs on the Royals last night. They can tee off again tonight at hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium against Kansas City's lousy pitchers. Roster Resource and DK project Alec Marsh to start tonight, and he has a 6.27 ERA, 6.05 xERA and 5.37 xFIP in 33.0 innings for the Royals this year. In addition, Kansas City's relievers have the second-highest ERA (5.29) in 2023.
- Ronald Acuna drilled a homer last night, bringing his season total to 27. The toolsy outfielder also has 55 stolen bases a .423 OBP, .239 ISO and 168 wRC+ in 551 plate appearances.
- Matt Olson has destroyed righties at home this year. In 214 plate appearances, he has 22 homers, a .416 OBP .422 ISO and 195 wRC+.
- In 223 plate appearances since June 7, Michael Harris has had nine homers, 11 stolen bases, a .396 OBP, .217 ISO and 160 wRC+.
- Jordan Westburg had a 129 wRC+ in Triple-A, and he's tallied a 107 wRC+ for the Orioles as a rookie.
- Anthony Volpe has three homers, one stolen base, a .354 OBP, .300 ISO and 145 wRC+ in 48 plate appearances this month. He's a DK-specific value/punt. Volpe's teammate Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a nifty alternative at FD.
- Joey Wiemer has seven homers, three stolen bases, a .333 OBP, .295 ISO and 148 wRC+ in 99 plate appearances against southpaws in his rookie campaign.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves are the best source of offense tonight. Furthermore, there are enough values/punts to open up the requisite cap space to stack them. However, stacking the Mariners is an enticing alternative in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
