It’s a medium-sized MLB DFS main slate tonight, featuring nine games starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested options in this piece are whittled to three pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top pitcher on the table has a good matchup and excellent underlying stats. The second-ranked pitcher isn't announced as the starter tonight but is projected by Roster Resource and DK to get the ball. And the third-ranked pitcher is a GPP suggestion, making his big-league debut and skipping Triple-A in the process.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Kevin Gausman (TOR) at CLE
Gausman's 4.41 ERA in his previous three starts spanning 16.1 innings wasn't anything to write home about. However, his underlying stats were much better. According to FanGraphs, Gausman had a 2.75 xFIP, 2.97 SIERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.1 BB%, 34.3 K% and 31.9 CSW%. So, the underwhelming ERA shouldn't throw gamers off the scent. Gausman is fine.
And the matchup for him is favorable. The Guardians are 19th in wRC+ (95) versus righties in 2023, 20th in wRC+ (93) in the previous 30 days and 23rd in wRC+ (92) at home this year. Furthermore, the betting info is good. According to Betting Pros, the Blue Jays are -148, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs. KC
Pivetta isn't a lock to pitch tonight. But Roster Resource and DK project him to toe the slab. Pivetta is an exciting GPP pick at FD if he starts. However, he's a less inviting option if he's a bulk reliever. And Pivetta's an outstanding SP2 in all game types at DK, as long as it's confirmed he'll pitch.
In Pivetta's last five appearances (one start) spanning 23.1 innings, he's had a 2.31 ERA, 2.87 xFIP, 2.46 SIERA, 0.81 WHIP, 5.8 BB%, 36.0 K%, 28.7 CSW%, 123 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 113 Pitching+. Pivetta can stay hot in a cushy matchup.
The Royals are 30th in wRC+ (81) and have a 23.5 K% versus righties in 2023. And they're 30th in wRC+ (77) and have a 26.6 K% on the road this year.
GPP Recommendation:
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs. SD
Hancock is jumping from Double-A to the majors without a pitstop in Triple-A. Still, he had plenty of seasoning in Double-A, pitching 13.2 innings at that level in 2021, 98.1 in 2022 and 98.0 this year. It wasn't smooth sailing every start this year for Hancock. Instead, he had four starts allowing at least six runs in 20 turns. However, he also allowed three runs or fewer in the other 16 starts, including 12 starts allowing one run or less.
The debuting righty is also dialed in lately. In four starts since a meltdown turn, he's spun a 1.44 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 0.72 WHIP, 4.2 BB% and 27.4 K% in 25.0 innings. The Padres are a potentially challenging matchup. But they're merely 15th in wRC+ (101) against righties this season. So, San Diego doesn't have an elite offense. At Emerson's tiny salary on DK, he's worth rolling the dice on in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Fenway Park)
- Value: Low (DK)/Medium (FD)
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Red Sox have an above-average offense and a desirable matchup tonight. They're 11th in wRC+ (104) versus righties in 2023. Boston is 15th in wRC+ (103) and had a .200 ISO in the previous 30 days. And the Red Sox are tied for sixth in wRC+ (115) at home this year.
They should have their way with Jordan Lyles and Kansas City's dreadful bullpen. Lyles has had a 5.40 ERA and 5.47 xFIP in his previous four starts. And Kansas City's relievers have the second-highest ERA (5.26) this season.
- Road (PNC Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ATL -300
The Braves keep chugging along after hanging eight runs on the Pirates last night. They're tied for first in wRC+ (119) and first in ISO (.225) against righties in 2023. Atlanta is third in wRC+ (127) and first in ISO (.247) in the previous 30 days. And the Braves are tied for first in wRC+ (116) and first in ISO (.212) on the road this season.
They're likely more than struggling rookie Quinn Priester can handle. In four starts for the Pirates, he has an 8.69 ERA, 5.82 xERA and 5.26 xFIP. Priester has also served up 2.29 HR/9. Finally, Pittsburgh's bullpen is below average.
- Jarren Duran is a stat-stuffer against righties. In 283 plate appearances against righties this year, he has seven homers, 21 stolen bases, a .358 OBP, .211 ISO and 135 wRC+.
- In 302 plate appearances against righties this year, Gunnar Henderson has 17 homers, three stolen bases, a .332 OBP, .281 ISO and 136 wRC+.
- Masataka Yoshida has nine homers, seven stolen bases, a .358 OBP, .179 ISO and 129 wRC+ in 307 plate appearances against righties this season.
- In 303 plate appearances against righties this year, Triston Casas has 16 homers, a .351 OBP, .240 ISO and 127 wRC+.
- Luis Rengifo is on a heater. In 113 plate appearances since July 1, he's had seven homers, a .381 OBP, .290 ISO and 164 wRC+.
- Yan Gomes is an acceptable pick on FD. However, he's a more desirable option at DK, where gamers must use a catcher. In 321 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Gomes had had a .306 OBP, .224 ISO and 117 wRC+.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Red Sox are the top stack across game types tonight. And they're underpriced on FD. But the Braves have a high ceiling worth spending the big bucks to stack in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
