Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has 13 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. A massive slate means many suggested options in this space. Specifically, there are four featured pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The highest-priced hurlers are easy fades tonight. Instead, the top-ranked pitcher has an attractive salary and a cushy matchup. The second and third pitchers on the table are a fun pairing in GPPs on DK or stellar tournament picks at FD. And the fourth pitcher is a DK-only suggestion as a value option with a soft matchup.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Nick Pivetta (BOS) at WAS
Pivetta's been in a groove as a starter and bulk reliever lately. According to FanGraphs, in his previous six appearances (two starts) spanning 28.1 innings, he's had a 2.54 ERA, 2.87 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 6.5 BB%, 36.4 K%, 29.9 CSW%, 124 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 112 Pitching+.
Pivetta should stay hot in a favorable matchup. The Nationals are tied for 24th in wRC+ (88) versus righties and 20th in wRC+ (96) at home this season. Furthermore, per Betting Pros, the Red Sox are -175, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. So, the betting info is also encouraging.
Zack Littell (TB) at SF
Littell has successfully transitioned from relieving to starting. In his previous five appearances (four starts) spanning 22.1 innings, he's had a 2.42 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 1.1 BB%, 18.7 K%, 89 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 102 Pitching+.
Littell doesn't strike many batters out, and his stuff is underwhelming. Regardless, he's succeeded by hitting his spots and sequencing. Littell can pan out at his bargain salary tonight against his struggling former employer. The Giants are 29th in wRC+ (70) against righties and have had a 26.2 K% in the previous 30 days.
GPP Recommendations:
Bobby Miller (LAD) vs. MIL
In Miller's previous five starts totaling 25.1 innings, he's had a 2.84 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 5.6 BB%, 22.2 K%, 29.0 CSW%, 131 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 111 Pitching+. Sadly, Miller's gap between his ERA and xFIP suggests he was somewhat lucky. Yet, the rookie's jaw-dropping pitch modeling is encouraging for his future performance.
The matchup is also excellent. The Brewers are tied for 24th in wRC+ (88) and have a 23.3 K% versus righties in 2023. They're 21st in wRC+ (92) in the previous 30 days. And Milwaukee is 27th in wRC+ (82) and has a 23.1 K% on the road this year. Finally, the Dodgers are -210, and the game's total is 9.0 runs.
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs. PHI
Kikuchi is cruising entering tonight's start. In his last five starts spanning 29.0 innings, he's had a 1.24 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 3.68 SIERA, 1.07 WHIP, 6.8 BB%, 24.8 K%, 29.2 CSW%, 101 Stuff+, 98 Location+ and 98 Pitching+. Even if Kikuchi's performance regresses to his ERA estimators, it would be acceptable.
And the Phillies enhance his ceiling tonight because they strike out at a high clip. First, they have a 25.2 K% versus lefties in 2023. Second, they have a 24.9 K% on the road this season. And the betting info is also decent. The Blue Jays are slight underdogs (-105), but the game's total (8.0 runs) is pitcher-friendly.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves are back in this section again after yet another explosion last night. They're first in wRC+ (121) and ISO (.223) versus righties in 2023. Atlanta is first in wRC+ (136) and ISO (.249) in the previous 30 days. And the Braves are second in wRC+ (128) and first in ISO (.242) at home this year.
Anyone would struggle to keep Atlanta's offense in check. And Luis Severino has been battered this year and enters tonight in a funk. In his last five appearances (four starts), he's had a 9.43 ERA and allowed 3.00 HR/9. Lefties have ripped Severino for a .475 wOBA, and righties have touched him up for a .376 wOBA this year. Get your popcorn ready. The Braves should put on a show tonight.
- Road (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Medium (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/LAA +145
The Angels reshaped their offense at the trade deadline and have some starters on the Injured List (IL). Nevertheless, they're tied for ninth in wRC+ (112) versus lefties in 2023 and 14th in wRC+ (102) in the previous 30 days. The Angels don't have a flawless offense.
However, they have the firepower to get the better of a lucky pitcher. Jordan Montgomery's 3.90 ERA in his last five starts was much lower than his 5.01 xFIP. So, it's enticing to stack the Angels and bank on Montgomery pitching closer to his underlying data than his sub-4.00 ERA.
- Road (PETCO Park)
- Value: Low (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/BAL +120
The Orioles are mediocre against righties, tying for 14th in wRC+ (100) versus them in 2023. And Baltimore is 10th in wRC+ (101) on the road this year. Yet, they might tee off tonight if Michael Wacha is rusty in his first start in the majors since July 1. The veteran righty landed on the IL after that start. He made only one rehab start, pitching 2.0 innings in Triple-A. The betting info isn't exciting, but it should throw gamers off the scent and make the O's a contrarian stack.
- Matt Olson has hit 34 homers with a .401 OBP, .362 ISO and 171 wRC+ in 404 plate appearances against righties this year.
- In 277 plate appearances against righties at home since reaching the majors last year, Michael Harris has had nine homers, a .344 OBP, .183 ISO and 124 wRC+.
- Brandon Drury has had a .325 OBP, .277 ISO and 142 wRC+ in 271 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 324 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Luis Rengifo has had a .333 OBP, .221 ISO and 134 wRC+.
- Randal Grichuk has had a .333 OBP, .251 ISO and 127 wRC+ in 417 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 450 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Hunter Renfroe has had a .347 OBP, .211 ISO and 123 wRC+.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves are the best source of hitters tonight. However, there are many appealing values on the Angels. And the Orioles are a fun contrarian stack in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
