Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is massive. It has 14 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. This piece sifts through the vast player pool to suggest four starting pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-ranked starting pitcher has the highest ceiling but isn't a must-use option in cash games. Instead, he's the most attractive choice in GPPs. The second pitcher offers the best blend of a high floor, a high ceiling and an affordable salary. The third pitcher on the table is the most intriguing SP2 at DK. And the final pitcher on the table is a useful value option to offset the high salary of the top option in GPPs at DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Alex Cobb (SF) vs. ARI
The Giants didn't announce a starting pitcher yesterday. So, with Roster Resource and DraftKings projecting Cobb to start on Monday, I jumped the gun by including him in yesterday's DFS primer. He's actually listed as the starter tonight and back in this space.
Cobb is a stud at home. According to FanGraphs, the veteran righty has had a 2.10 ERA, 2.91 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 6.5 BB%, 24.5 K% and 62.6 GB% in 137.0 innings at home since last season. Cobb can continue his dominance against a slumping offense. The Diamondbacks are 23rd in wRC+ (92) and have had a 22.2 K% in the previous 30 days.
And the betting info is stellar. According to Betting Pros, the Giants are slight underdogs (-105). However, the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.0 runs. Thus, Cobb is an excellent pick in all DFS game types tonight, even if a win isn't a sure thing.
Lance Lynn (LAD) vs. OAK
Lynn has struggled mightily this year. Still, he has some quality underlying data, and a change of scenery on the Dodgers could allow him to turn things around. Despite struggling, Lynn had a fantasy-friendly 27.2 K% in his previous four starts.
Lynn is also a matchup-driven suggestion. The Athletics are tied for 25th in wRC+ (87) and have a 25.5 K% against righties this year. And they're tied for 24th in wRC+ (89) and have a 24.2 K% on the road this season.
GPP Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. LAA
Strider's underlying stats were remarkable lately. Unfortunately, he's had a less impressive 3.73 ERA in his last five starts, totaling 31.1 innings. Still, Strider's 1.81 xFIP, 1.96 SIERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.1 BB%, 41.7 K% and 33.3 CSW% were breathtaking.
It makes sense to chase Strider's elite strikeout ability and ceiling in GPPs. Furthermore, the betting info is quite good. The Braves are -260, and the game's total is 9.0 runs.
Jose Quintana (NYM) at KC
Quintana has taken the ball for the Mets twice this year. The veteran lefty didn't dominate in either of those turns. Still, Quintana has an acceptable 3.27 ERA, 4.11 xERA and 4.26 xFIP. Additionally, in 176.2 innings since 2022, Quintana has had a 2.95 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, 6.9 BB% and 20.0 K%.
Quintana isn't an exciting pick. But he's underpriced at DK, especially considering the cupcake matchup and decent betting info. The Royals are 25th in wRC+ (88) and have a 24.1 K% versus lefties in 2023. They're also 29th in wRC+ (87) at home this season. And the Mets are -160.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves had a quiet night at the dish last night. Nevertheless, Atlanta's offense is a juggernaut. They're first in wRC+ (134) and first in ISO (.243) against lefties in 2023. They're also tied for fourth in wRC+ (121) and first in ISO (.242) in the previous 30 days. And Atlanta is second in wRC+ (128) and first in ISO (.239) at home. So, while Patrick Sandoval isn't a pushover matchup, the Braves have a high-upside stack.
- Road (Wrigley Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/CIN +142
The Reds are catching Justin Steele at a favorable time. The lefty has had a 4.44 ERA in his previous four starts, albeit with a 3.38 xFIP and 3.77 SIERA. Yet, if Steele's slightly lousy luck continues, the Reds have some high-end talent that can help them shine tonight. And the Reds should be contrarian tonight, enhancing the appeal of stacking them in tournaments.
- Road (Globe Life Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/CWS +180
Andrew Heaney has reverted to a borderline punching bag after an outlier excellent campaign last year. In 20 starts spanning 101.1 innings this season, Heaney has a 4.62 ERA, 4.78 xERA and 4.69 xFIP. Moreover, the lefties yielded an identical .340 wOBA to lefties and righties in 2023. Texas's bullpen is also a plus matchup for the White Sox. The Rangers have the fourth-highest bullpen ERA (4.83) this year. Finally, eight of Chicago's projected starters have had at least a 104 wRC+ against lefties since 2021 (or since reaching The Show when applicable) and six have had at least a 129 wRC+.
- In 249 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Luis Robert has had a .411 OBP, .274 ISO and 187 wRC+.
- Austin Riley has amassed a .361 OBP, .265 ISO and 146 wRC+ in 407 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 150 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Jake Burger has had a .333 OBP, .331 ISO and 149 wRC+.
- Ryan Mountcastle has had a .319 OBP, .242 ISO and 123 wRC+ in 464 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 113 plate appearances since reaching the majors last year, Matt Wallner has six homers, a .398 OBP, a .234 ISO and 158 wRC+.
- In 289 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Tim Anderson has had a .370 OBP and 136 wRC+.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The White Sox aren't risk-free to entirely stack. So, it's best to only build a full stack with them in GPPs. But they can be partially stacked in cash games, too. The Braves have appealing hitters in all game types. However, their high salaries create a challenge for fleshing out a balanced lineup in cash games when they're fully stacked. So, building full stacks from the Braves is a better move in GPPs than in cash games. And the Reds are an intriguing GPP stack.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
