Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is massive. It has 12 games and begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested picks for tonight’s sizable slate are reduced to four starting pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-ranked hurler has a dreadful matchup. However, his home splits create a high ceiling worth chasing in GPPs. The second and third-ranked hurlers are the most appealing pairing in cash games at DK. And the fourth-ranked pitcher is a carryover from yesterday's piece and remains intriguing in GPPs.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Bobby Miller (LAD) at CLE
Miller hasn't been overwhelmed by big-league hitters, and he's not hitting a rookie wall. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 26.2 innings, he's had a 2.70 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 5.5 BB%, 21.1 K%, 29.2 CSW%, 132 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 113 Pitching+.
The gap between Miller's ERA and xFIP wasn't ideal. Yet, his pitch-modeling data was dreamy. So, maybe, his dominant stuff can help explain the gap.
Regardless, Miller has a tasty matchup tonight. The Guardians are tied for 18th in wRC+ (95) versus righties in 2023. They're 29th in wRC+ (77) in the previous 30 days. And Cleveland is tied for 28th in wRC+ (86) at home this year.
Additionally, the betting info is excellent. Per Betting Pros, the Dodgers are -210, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. Considering Miller's salary, he's the most appealing pitcher in cash games at both DFS providers tonight.
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) vs. TOR
Rodriguez is in a groove. In his previous five starts spanning 30.2 innings, he's had a 2.35 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, 7.8 BB%, 22.6 K%, 29.1 CSW%, 129 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 112 Pitching+. Again, like Miller, Rodriguez's gap between his ERA and xFIP could be excused because of Rodriguez's electrifying stuff.
Unfortunately, unlike Miller, Rodriguez has a challenging matchup. The Blue Jays are tied for 10th in wRC+ (105) versus righties in 2023. Toronto is also 13th in wRC+ (108) in the previous 30 days. Still, the Orioles are -120, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Thus, using Rodriguez as an SP2 on DK is inviting at his bargain salary.
GPP Recommendations:
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. TEX
Gallen is a monster at home. In 79.1 innings at home this year, he's had a 1.82 ERA, 2.75 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, 4.0 BB% and 30.5 K%. Gallen was dominant at home last year, too. In 90.1 innings, he had a 2.49 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP 6.1 BB% and 25.9 K%.
It would generally be unwise to use a starting pitcher against the Rangers. However, Texas's elite offense and Gallen's large salary will dissuade gamers from using the ace tonight, increasing his appeal in GPPs. And the betting info is stellar. The Diamondbacks are -129, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) at LAA
Ashcraft was included in yesterday's primer. But yesterday's game was postponed. So, Ashcraft is getting the ball tonight instead. In the righty's previous five games spanning 33.1 innings, he's had a 2.43 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 25.6 CSW%, 130 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 110 Pitching+. Thus, Ashcraft is another pitch-modeling whiz.
His matchup isn't too shabby, either. The Angels have been a challenging matchup for righties. Still, they're not too imposing at home or lately. The Angels are 16th in wRC+ (103) and have a 25.7 K% at home this year. And they're 26th in wRC+ (82) and have a 27.4 K% in the previous 30 days.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves are tied for first in wRC+ (121) and first in ISO (.221) versus righties in 2023. Atlanta is first in wRC+ (136) and ISO (.224) in the previous 30 days. And they're second in wRC+ (127) and first in ISO (.236) at home this year. Tylor Megill is no match for Atlanta's elite offense. He's been torched by lefties and righties this year, ceding a .372 wOBA to the former and a .361 wOBA to the latter.
- Home (Oriole Park at Camden Yards)
- Value: Low
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/BAL -120
The Orioles are a contrarian GPP stack tonight. Yusei Kikuchi's 1.44 ERA in his previous four starts should cause most gamers to stack another offense. And Kikuchi's 3.20 xFIP during those starts wasn't a mark to trifle with, either. However, the veteran lefty has allowed a .322 wOBA to right-handed batters this season. Furthermore, Baltimore has an above-average offense against lefties and at home this year. The case isn't perfect for stacking the O's, but investing in an underutilized above-average offense in GPPs can catapult a team to a big payday if it hits.
- Home (PNC Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9,5 Runs/PIT -142
The Pirates laid the wood to the Cardinals last night and have another cushy matchup tonight. Pittsburgh's offense isn't anything to write home about. Nevertheless, Adam Wainwright is entirely washed-up. In 16 starts this year, the 41-year-old righty has an 8.42 ERA, 7.70 xERA and 5.73 xFIP. He's allowed 1.86 HR/9 and hasn't had answers for lefties or righties. As a result, the Pirates could erupt again tonight.
- In 426 plate appearances against righties this year, Matt Olson has 34 homers, a .399 OBP, .344 ISO and 165 wRC+.
- Austin Riley has 22 homers, a .339 OBP, .222 ISO and 123 wRC+ in 448 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in 2023.
- In 337 plate appearances against righties this year, Bryan Reynolds has 16 homers, six stolen bases, a .338 OBP, .240 ISO and 124 wRC+.
- Jack Suwinski has 20 homers, five stolen bases, a .344 OBP, .285 ISO and 125 wRC+ in 311 plate appearances against righties this year.
- In 333 plate appearances against righties this year, J.P. Crawford has a .400 OBP, .179 ISO and 147 wRC+. And he's the leadoff hitter for the Mariners, making him a sweet punt, especially at FD.
- Ji-Hwan Bae is primarily a lineup-driven punt. He hits atop Pittsburgh's order.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves are the most attractive source of hitters tonight. But the Pirates have a high ceiling and some useful punts. And the Orioles are a contrarian stack.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
