Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is tiny. It has only three games at DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 pm ET. The picks for the puny slate are narrowed to two starting pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is tiny. It has only three games at DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 pm ET. The picks for the puny slate are narrowed to two starting pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is wretched on this slate, with one exception. The top-ranked pitcher is a stud worth gambling on despite a brutal matchup. The second pitcher on the table has blemishes. Nevertheless, his road success and the lack of viable alternatives make him the best of a bad lot.
Starting Pitcher Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) at LAD
Strider is cooking with gasoline. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 30.1 innings, he's had a 2.37 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.3 BB%, 31.4 K%, 33.5 CSW%, 119 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 106 Pitching+.
Sadly, the matchup is tricky tonight. The Dodgers are third in wRC+ (117) versus righties in 2023. LA is tied for fourth in wRC+ (133) in the previous 30 days. They're also third in wRC+ (123) at home this season. So, there's no positive way to spin the matchup for Strider. Nevertheless, Strider is far and away the most talented pitcher on this slate and has the highest ceiling.
Braxton Garrett (MIA) at WSH
Garrett is a road warrior. In 63.0 innings on the road this year, he has a 2.86 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 4.4 BB% and 25.2 K%.
The matchup isn't optimal, though. The Nationals are tied for 11th in wRC+ (108) versus lefties in 2023. Yet, they're only tied for 18th in wRC+ (94) in the previous 30 days. Moreover, Washington is just 19th in wRC+ (99) at home this season. And back on June 17, Garrett allowed only one run on four hits, one walk and eight strikeouts in six innings in Washington. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Marlins are -160, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Road (PETCO Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Giants haven't been in good form. In addition, their full-season numbers against righties haven't been anything to write home about. They also face a starting pitcher tonight who's been in a groove lately. However, Pedro Avila's 3.22 ERA and 3.20 xFIP in his last six appearances (two starts) spanning 22.1 innings is unlike his previous production. The righty had an 8.57 ERA and 6.42 xFIP in 19 appearances (15 starts) in Triple-A this season. Stacking the Giants tonight can be highly profitable if Avila turns back into a pumpkin.
- Michael Harris has nine homers, 15 stolen bases, a .341 OBP, .170 ISO and 114 wRC+ in 315 plate appearances against righties this year. Conversely, Lance Lynn has allowed 19 homers, a .372 OBP, .571 slugging and .398 wOBA to 323 lefties in 2023.
- In 368 plate appearances against righties this year, Eddie Rosario has 17 homers, a .310 OBP, .226 ISO and 109 wRC+. He's also tallied a 124 wRC+ in the second half.
- Thairo Estrada has nine homers, 14 stolen bases, a .318 OBP, .167 ISO and 108 wRC+ in 292 plate appearances against righties this season.
- In 151 plate appearances against righties on the road this year, Joc Pederson has seven homers, a .391 OBP, .217 ISO and 138 wRC+.
- LaMonte Wade has six homers, a .412 OBP, .146 ISO and 136 wRC+ in 199 plate appearances against righties on the road in 2023.
- In 118 plate appearances against righties on the road this season, Wilmer Flores has 10 homers, a .407 OBP, .350 ISO and 187 wRC+.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Giants are a cheap source of intriguing hitters tonight. And Atlanta's left-handed-hitting outfielders are excellent choices, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
