Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is small. There are six games on the main slates at DraftKings and FanDuel, with the action starting at 7:15 pm ET at both providers. Today’s small slate picks are narrowed to three starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The highest-ceiling hurler is atop tonight's starting pitcher rankings. However, he's not a must-use option in cash games. Instead, saving some salary and using the heavily-favored second-ranked pitcher is appealing. And the third-ranked pitcher is a desirable SP2 in all game types at DK and a tournament option on FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Julio Urias (LAD) vs. OAK
Urias has left much to be desired lately. According to FanGraphs, he had a 5.09 ERA and 4.73 xFIP in his previous four starts, totaling 23.0 innings. However, Urias was largely undone by an uncharacteristic and unsustainable 59.5 LOB%. The lefty's 6.2 BB%, 22.7 K%, 1.13 WHIP, 30.5 CSW%, 104 Stuff+, 108 Location+ and 107 Pitching+ in those starts were good-or-better marks.
Urias can excel in a plus matchup tonight. The Athletics are tied for 21st in wRC+ (94) and have a 22.9 K% versus lefties in 2023. They're also tied for 24th in wRC+ (89) and have a 24.3 K% on the road this year. Moreover, per Betting Pros, the Dodgers are -275, and the game's total is a non-threatening 8.5 runs.
Mitch Keller (PIT) at MIL
In his last five starts, Keller's 6.28 ERA and 4.79 xFIP weren't DFS-friendly numbers. Thankfully, there were some encouraging underlying numbers mixed in. Namely, Keller's pitch modeling was rock-solid. He had a 104 Pitching+, 99 Location+ and 101 Pitching+.
Keller also sandwiched two good starts around two duds in his previous four turns. He held the Phillies to two runs on six hits, three walks and eight strikeouts in 5.2 innings in his most recent start. Keller is volatile. However, his ceiling is high, and he has a good matchup tonight.
The Brewers are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (88) and have a 23.6 K% versus righties in 2023. And Milwaukee is 23rd in wRC+ (93) and has a 25.4 K% at home this season. So, while Keller isn't safe, he has a matchup to bring the best out of him.
GPP Recommendation:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. SEA
Ohtani was shaky in recent starts, and his numbers were a mixed bag. In his previous four starts spanning 25.1 innings, Ohtani had a 4.97 ERA, 3.93 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, 10.5 BB%, 27.6 K%, 28.8 CSW%, 107 Stuff+, 99 Location+ and 103 Pitching+. Ultimately, there were plenty of positive marks in his underlying stats, providing reasons for optimism about Ohtani pitching much better from now on.
Ohtani's matchup tonight is challenging. Yet, it provides him with a sky-high ceiling since the Mariners strike out at a high rate by any applicable split. Seattle has a 26.1 K% versus righties in 2023, a 27.8 K% in the previous 30 days and a 26.4 K% on the road this season. Finally, the betting info is excellent. The Angels are -157, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
Cincinnati's full-season numbers against righties aren't impressive. Still, with an influx of young talent throughout the season, they have a sweet mix of high-end hitters and depth. Seven of the projected starters have had at least 102 wRC+ against righties this year, and five have had at least a 115 wRC+.
Jameson Taillon is a decent matchup, despite sporting a 1.78 ERA in his previous four starts. Taillon's 4.46 xFIP in those starts was a better representation of his quality of pitching. So, gamers shouldn't be dissuaded by Taillon's recent excellent ERA.
- Road (American Family Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/PIT +105
The Pirates aren't an exciting stack. However, they should be contrarian in a good matchup. Adrian Houser had a 5.66 ERA and 4.63 xFIP in his previous four starts. Additionally, Houser has allowed a .334 wOBA to righties and a .359 wOBA to lefties this year. Thus, Pittsburgh's lefties and righties can get the better of Houser.
- Jake Fraley has 15 homers, 16 stolen bases, a .365 OBP, .227 ISO and 130 wRC+ in 282 plate appearances against righties this year.
- Joey Votto slugged two homers last night. And in 134 plate appearances this year, the veteran first baseman has 11 homers, a .321 OBP, .319 ISO and 122 wRC+.
- Christopher Morel has 13 homers, four stolen bases, a .367 OBP, .279 ISO and 154 wRC+ in 200 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season.
- In 263 plate appearances against righties this year, Jack Suwinski has 20 homers, a .350 OBP, .318 ISO and 138 wRC+.
- Will Benson has seven homers, 10 stolen bases, a .402 OBP, .262 ISO and 154 wRC+ in 169 plate appearances against righties this season.
- In 469 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Amed Rosario has had a .343 OBP, .170 ISO and 126 wRC+.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Reds are my favorite source of hitters tonight. However, despite not being featured stacks in today's primer, the Cubs and Dodgers are also intriguing options for hitters. And the Pirates are an enticing contrarian stack in tournaments.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
