Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has five games starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Since it’s tiny, the suggested picks in this piece include just two starting pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has five games starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Since it’s tiny, the suggested picks in this piece include just two starting pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Two lefties are the most attractive starting pitchers tonight. The top-ranked pitcher has a cushy matchup and is a model of consistency. The second is in good form. Additionally, he has a small salary, opening up significant cap space for hitters.
Starting Pitcher Recommendations:
Justin Steele (CHC) at PIT
According to FanGraphs, in Steele's previous five starts spanning 28.1 innings, he's had a 3.81 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, 5.6 BB%, 25.0 K%, 25.9 CSW%, 97 Stuff+, 99 Location+ and 98 Pitching+. Despite a .358 BABIP in those turns, Steele was able to work around traffic. Furthermore, Steele hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in 12 starts, pitched at least 5.0 innings in each and at least 6.0 innings eight times in his last nine turns.
Steele can thrive in a cupcake matchup tonight. The Pirates are 25th in wRC+ (91) and have a 23.0 K% versus lefties in 2023. Pittsburgh is 17th in wRC+ (98) and has a 24.9 K% in the previous 30 days. And they're 23rd in wRC+ (94) and have a 21.9 K% at home this year.
Ken Waldichuk (OAK) at CWS
Waldichuk was rock-solid in his previous five appearances (four starts). In 25.0 innings during that stretch, he had a 3.24 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 9.3 BB%, 27.1 K% and 28.4 CSW%. Those marks weren't flawless. Yet, they offer gamers a lot of bang for their buck at Waldichuk's puny salary.
And the matchup is nice. The White Sox are 20th in wRC+ (93) and have a 24.6 K% versus lefties in 2023. Chicago is tied for 26th in wRC+ (80) and has a 24.4 K% in the previous 30 days. And they're tied for 28th in wRC+ (86) and have a 22.7 K% at home this year.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Orioles are an average offense versus righties, in the previous 30 days and at home, ranking tied for 15th (100 wRC+), 16th (103 wRC+) and tied for 15th (103 wRC+). Fortunately, they have a favorable matchup tonight. Jose Berrios was extremely lucky when he spun a 3.38 ERA in his previous five starts. It was a much lower mark than his 4.89 xFIP. Additionally, the righty has coughed up a .331 wOBA to left-handed batters this year, and the O's have six hitters in their projected lineup who will bat left-handed against him.
- Adley Rutschman has 14 homers, a .400 OBP, .217 ISO and 159 wRC+ in 330 plate appearances against righties at home in his career.
- In 428 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Christian Walker has had a .355 OBP, .217 ISO and 124 wRC+.
- Gunnar Henderson has 19 homers, a .329 OBP, .280 ISO and 134 wRC+ in 335 plate appearances against righties in 2023.
- In 230 plate appearances against righties this year, Ryan O'Hearn has eight homers, a .335 OBP, .182 ISO and 122 wRC+.
- Evan Longoria has lit up lefties for a .250 ISO and 143 wRC+ in 297 plate appearances since 2021.
- In 204 plate appearances against righties this season, Will Benson has seven homers, 13 stolen bases, a .407 OBP, .243 ISO and 151 wRC+.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Orioles are the most exciting stack tonight. And the Diamondbacks have some excellent complements to an O's stack.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.