MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Thursday (8/10)

I usually cover the weekend games, but I’m filling in once again here! This is my first Thursday slate of the season, which is always one of the most challenging days to cover. Thursdays tend to be a travel day for most teams, and it tends to be the shortest slate of the week. That’s just what we have here, with four games happening during the day and four making up the night slate. We’ll include picks from both slates to make things easier on you because some readers play in different ones. With that in mind, let’s look at the arms!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

I thought it would be tough to find four pitchers we wanted to recommend, but it was actually relatively easy. We even decided to fade Clayton Kershaw against the Rockies because he’s making his first start in nearly two months. We would usually have him in here, but we’re not so sure Kershaw will have a full workload. In any case, we still have four pitchers we love, so let’s get started with the Phillies ace!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. WAS

Nola has had a disappointing season by his lofty standards, but this stud is still one of the best arms in baseball. The right-hander has a 3.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last four years, striking out 701 batters across 600 innings. That strikeout stuff is what’s really enticing because Nola has showcased a 65-point upside twice this season. One of those could be in play against Washington, with the Nats ranked 27th in xwOBA. That’s why Nola and the Phils enter this matchup as a -250 favorite.

Kenta Maeda (MIN) at DET

Maeda had one nightmare outing before landing on the IL, but he’s been incredible outside of that. The Twins hurler has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his other 11 starts, tallying a 2.86 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 11.1 K/9 rate in those outings. That fantastic form should be easy to duplicate against Detroit’s disastrous offense, with the Tigers ranked bottom four in runs scored, OBP, OPS wOBA, and K rate. He’s faced them eight times over the last three years and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of those matchups!

GPP Recommendations:

James Paxton (BOS) vs. KC

Paxton has always been an ace when he’s healthy, and that’s what we’ve seen all year. The Sox southpaw has a 3.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 10.1 K.9 rate this year. He’s also scored at least 27 FanDuel points in 10 of 14 starts, which should be easy to reach against Kansas City. The Royals rank 28th or 29th in runs scored, OBP, and wOBA. The oddsmakers love him, too, projecting Pax to be a -280 favorite in this matchup.

Bryce Elder (ATL) at PIT

Elder has been terrible in the second half of the season, but we’re willing to overlook that in this matchup. Since the opening month of the year, the Pirates rank bottom three in runs scored, OPS, wOBA, and K rate. We love that when looking at Elder’s early-season form, sporting a 2.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first 16 starts. He can definitely recapture that form against Pittsburgh, entering this matchup as a -210 favorite.

Top Lineup Stacks

Atlanta Braves (vs. Bailey Falter)

• Road (PNC Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 10 Runs/ATL-210

The Braves would be a worthy stack against anyone, but they’re the best option on the board against Bailey Falter. The Pittsburgh lefty has been terrible all season, totaling a 4.87 ERA and 1.47 WHIP en route to an 0-7 record. That’s scary against the best offense in baseball, with the Braves ranked first or second in runs scored, OBP, and home runs. They also have a ton of dangerous bats from the right side, which is terrible news since Falter is a southpaw.

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Noah Syndergaard)

• Home (Progressive Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/TOR -150

It’s sad to see a former Cy Young candidate fall so far, but Syndergaard is officially washed up. The right-hander has a 6.75 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this year while tallying a 4.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last three years. That won’t sit well against a terrifying Toronto lineup, ranked Top 5 in OBP and BA.

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Patrick Corbin)

• Home (Citizens Bank Park)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/PHI -250

The Phillies have been one of the best offenses over the last two months, and it’s no surprise since they bat in a hitter’s haven like Citizens Bank Ballpark. It’s unlikely that Corbin has success in that hitter-friendly park, with PC posting a 5.62 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over the last four years. In his final three starts against Philly last year, Corbin compiled a 13.50 ERA and 2.67 WHIP.

Core Studs

• We didn’t write up the Dodgers, but they’re one of the best options out there against Ty Blach. The Rockies lefty has a 4.85 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season. That has LA projected to score over five runs, and you know Mookie will be the table-setter atop this lineup. Betts has a .398 ONP, .689 SLG, and 1.087 OPS against left-handers this year, scoring at least 22 FanDuel points in six of his last eight outings.
• Devers got off to a dreadful start this season, but he’s been excellent throughout the second half. Over his last 35 games, Rafael has registered a .320 AVG, .400 OBP, .594 SLG and .994 OPS. Most of that damage has come against righties, amassing a .921 OPS against them over the last three years. That’s bad news for Alex Marsh, who maintains a 6.75 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.
• Castellanos is amid a bounce-back season in Philly, and he’s our favorite play in this offense. He’s the one stud in this lineup with the platoon advantage in his favor, collecting a .357 OBP and .820 OPS against them this year. He also enters this matchup amid a nine-game hitting streak, accruing a .873 OPS across his last eight outings. Those numbers don’t even include Wednesday, when Castellanos hit two bombs off another lefty!
• Acuna could be in here every day. The NL MVP frontrunner is on pace for nearly 35 homers and 75 steals, while finishing Top 3 in runs scored and batting average. That historic season has him as the leading scorer in fantasy, and we obviously don’t want to fade him against a subpar southpaw like Falter.
• Let’s stack Acuna with Riley. This mashing third baseman has been cruising for a month now, providing a .369 OBP, .782 SLG, and 1.151 OPS across his last 19 outings. That’s scary when looking at his splits, with Riley falling just shy of a 1.000 OPS against left-handers over the last two years.

Value Plays/Punts

• Taylor has been a great utility player throughout his career, but he’s just a platoon player at this point. That’s fine with us because he’s got a .795 OPS against left-handers this year. That always has him in the heart of this dangerous LA lineup against lefties, and he should blast a pitcher like Blach. In 28 at-bats against Blach, CT has a .896 OPS.
• The Rays have some of the best platoon players in MLB, and Ramirez is one of them. This guy has destroyed left-handers all year, accumulating a .386 AVG, .600 SLG, and 1.011 OPS against them. That’s quite the resume’ from such a cheap player, especially since he faces Matthew Liberatore‘s 6.93 ERA and 1.78 WHIP.
• Bohm is the best cheap option in the Philly lineup because he’s slaughtered southpaws all season. In over 100 at-bats against left-handers, Bohm has a .340 AVG, .612 SLG and .979 OPS. We love that when examining his recent form, posting a .992 OPS across his last 17 outings. In 20 at-bats against Corbin, Bohm has compiled a 1.159 OPS.
• Kepler has always been a dangerous bat for the Twins, and he’s been doing some serious damage recently after a slow start. The lefty masher has a 1.026 OPS across his last 20 outings. That’s amazing since his career OPS is right around .800 against righties, and we’re not worried about him facing a pitcher with a 4.94 ERA.
• It’s hard to understand why Belt always remains so affordable. This guy typically bats third against right-handers, and it’s easy to understand why. Belt has a .361 OBP, .507 SLG, and .868 OPS against righties over the last three years. He’s also established a .926 OPS across his last 24 games and should be at least $500 more on each site.

Hitter Strategy

There are some great offenses on this slate! We already talked about Philly, Atlanta, and Toronto, but we can’t forget about Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, and Boston. Many people would argue that the Dodgers are the best option on this slate, but we didn’t write them up because of how pricey many of those players are. They still make for one of the best stacks out there, and there’s surely a perfect DFS lineup out there among these six teams. None of them are necessarily cheap, but there should be some affordable options to use!

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.