MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (8/20)

This is a bizarre slate. We had three games moved from today’s card to Saturday’s slate because of the impending Hurricane Hilary. We hope everyone stays safe, but that will lead to a shortened slate here. The games that were moved up include the Dodgers-Marlins, Padres-Diamondbacks, and Angels-Rays matchups. That leaves this slate extremely thin, but there’s still plenty to discuss.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

We thought this slate was about to be stacked with pitching before all the schedule changes, but that’s not the case anymore. We lost Tyler Glasnow and Brandon Miller, which is very frustrating since we wanted to write up both of those guys. That’s forced our hands with some riskier options in the GPP section, but we still have two great pitchers in the cash game section. Let’s start there!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Max Scherzer (TEX) vs. MIL

Some people thought Mad Max was washed with the Mets earlier in the year, but he’s proving his doubters wrong again. Scherzer has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts, sporting a 1.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 11.0 K/9 rate in that span. That’s the stud we’ve become accustomed to, and Milwaukee is not as tough of a matchup as it sounds. The Brewers rank 24th in OBP and 22nd in runs scored.

Kyle Bradish (BAL) at OAK

Not enough people are talking about Bradish because he’s been breaking out in Baltimore. The former top prospect has a 2.65 ERA and 1.02 WHIP since May 8. That’s a large sample size of dominance, with Bradish scoring at least 29 FD points in all but three of those starts. That should be his floor against Oakland, who rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA since the start of last season.

GPP Recommendations:

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) at CLE

E-Rod hasn’t been as good as he was earlier in the year, but this guy is still quietly having an outstanding season. The Tigers southpaw has a 3.13 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, scoring at least 35 FanDuel points in 11 of 18 starts. We believe one of those is in play against Cleveland, with the Guardians ranked 28th in runs scored and 26th in wOBA. In their two matchups this season, Rodriguez hasn’t allowed a run across 15 pristine innings, scoring 55 and 64 FD points in those two masterpieces.

Kyle Hendricks (CHC) vs. KC

Hendricks is risky with his lack of strikeout stuff, but there are not many better bets for a quality start and a win. This guy has been churning out quality starts for most of his career, tallying a 4.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this year and a 3.49 ERA and 1.15 WHP throughout his 10-year tenure. The oddsmakers certainly think he’s in line for a quality start and a win, projecting him to be a -200 favorite in this magnificent matchup. The Royals rank bottom three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xWOBA.

Top Lineup Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Carlos Carrasco)

• Home (Busch Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/STL -150

Cookie Carrasco used to be one of my favorite pitchers, but he’s been a tasty treat for hitters this season. The aging veteran has a 6.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in what’s turning into a nightmare campaign. The Cardinals have been quite the calamity themselves, but they still have plenty of talent in this lineup with guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O’Neill.

Chicago Cubs (vs. Jordan Lyles)

• Home (Wrigley Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/CHC -200

I’ve stacked against Jordan Lyles in nearly every start he’s made over the last decade, and it blows my mind these managers still throw him out there. He’s got a career ERA above 5.00 and a WHIP sitting near 1.50. He’s been even worse this year, amassing a 6.30 ERA en route to a 3-13 record. That’s scary against a scorching lineup like Chicago, sitting near the top of every offensive category since the All-Star break.

Texas Rangers (vs. Adrian Houser)

• Home (Globe Life Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/TEX -210

This is a pretty simple one. We have one of the best offenses in baseball facing a pitcher who loads the bases regularly. The Rangers rank second in OBP, BA, runs scored, and SLG. That’s horrifying for a pitcher like Houser, who’s got a 4.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. That terrible WHIP is rough against such a formidable lineup, and they could add to their league-leading double-digit games.

Core Studs

• The Mets have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league, but it’s no fault of Alonso. The slugging first baseman has 11 homers over his last 23 games, tallying a .378 OBP, .707 SLG, and 1.085 OPS in that span. That’s the stud we’ve seen for some time, and we don’t want to fade him against a pitcher with a 4.36 ERA and 1.32 WHIP since the start of last year.
• Seager has a hard time staying on the field, but he’s the best shortstop in baseball when he does. Corey has a .348 AVG, .411 OBP, .661 SLG, and 1.072 OPS this year. That’s hard to believe he’s sustained those averages throughout the year, and it looks even better since he has a 1.125 OPS against righties. We love that against Adrian Houser‘s 4.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
• We had Mountcastle in here yesterday, and we’re going back to him for all the same reasons. His splits are his biggest asset, accruing a .339 AVG, .374 OBP, .688 SLG, and 1.061 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this year. Ryan also has a .471 OBP, .667 SLG, and 1.137 OPS across his last 21 games.
• The Cubs have been one of the biggest surprises this season, and the resurgence of Bellinger is the primary reason why. The former MVP has 20 homers and 17 steals, thanks to his .327 AVG, .554 SLG and .933 OPS. Most of that has come against right-handers, which bodes well against a pitcher like Lyles. Those stats don’t even take into consideration his two dingers on Saturday!

Value Plays/Punts

• O’Neill has been on and off the IL all season, and it’s really led to a disappointing year. We know this guy has serious fantasy potential, though, collecting 48 homers and 29 steals in the two previous years. We’ve seen glimpses of that since he came off the IL, totaling a .343 OBP, .542 SLG, and .886 OPS across his last 18 games.
• Gimenez got off to a dreadful start this season, but he’s been fantastic in the second half. The middle infielder has a .341 AVG, .413 OBP, .613 SLG, and 1.026 OPS over the last two weeks. More importantly, he’s stealing bags again, making him a dangerous DFS option. The matchup with Alex Faedo is fabulous, too, generating a 5.16 ERA.
• Happ is always way too cheap on DraftKings. This guy bats right in the middle of Chicago’s lineup against right-handers, accumulating a .375 OBP and .799 OPS against them this year. That makes him hard to avoid against someone like Lyles, especially since Happ remains this cheap.
• Belt always bats third against right-handers, making him about $500 too cheap on both sites. The righty masher has a .362 OBP, .504 SLG, and .867 OPS against righties over the last three years. He’s been right on par with that recently, providing a .869 OPS across his last 45 games. The matchup isn’t too shabby either, facing Hunter Greene in his first appearance in months.

Hitter Strategy

Spending up at the pitching positions and saving up for bats will be imperative. There are two top-notch aces in beautiful spots that we can’t really fade, and it’s going to be critical to spend up for those guys. That means it’s imperative to find cheap bats, but we’re fortunate there are plenty of those on this slate. The teams we want to stack include the Cardinals, Mets, Guardians, Cubs, Rangers, and Orioles. Those are some of the best offenses in the league, but there are still plenty of great cheap options among those lineups!

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.