Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is medium-sized. It has eight games, starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer focuses on three starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts as the most attractive options on the slate.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
One starting pitcher is head and shoulders above the others on tonight's slate. The top-ranked pitcher has a good matchup, favorable betting info and will almost certainly be chalky. The rest of the starting pitching options leave much to be desired. Hence, even the second and third-listed pitchers on the table are deemed high-risk choices.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Luis Castillo (SEA) at CWS
Castillo is in decent form. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 32.0 innings, he's had a 3.94 ERA, 3.90 xFIP, 3.73 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, 5.5 BB%, 26.0 K%, 25.3 CSW%, 101 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 102 Pitching+. Castillo has a cushy matchup tonight.
The White Sox are 30th in wRC+ (83) and have a 23.5 K% versus righties in 2023. They're also 29th in wRC+ (77) and have a 24.6 K% in the previous 30 days. And Chicago is tied for 28th in wRC+ (87) and has a 22.4 K% at home this year. In addition, per Betting Pros, the Mariners are -172, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. So, Castillo checks all the requisite boxes to be the top hurler on tonight's slate.
Paul Blackburn (OAK) vs. KC
Blackburn has overachieved lately. Nevertheless, his underlying numbers were rock-solid. In his last five starts spanning 30.0 innings, Blackburn had a 2.10 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, 8.7 BB%, 23.8 K% and 27.1 CSW%. A nearly-4.00 xFIP wasn't anything to write home about. Yet, it's acceptable at Blackburn's salary.
The matchup and betting info are also stellar. The Royals are tied for 26th in wRC+ (87) and have a 23.0 K% versus righties in 2023. Moreover, they're 29th in wRC+ (80) and have a 26.5 K% on the road this year. And Oakland is a slight underdog (even), but the game's total is just 8.0 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) at LAA
Ashcraft is primarily a pitch-modeling-driven suggestion. In his last five starts spanning 33.1 innings, Aschraft has had a 2.43 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 49.5 GB%, 6.9 BB%, 18.3 K% and 25.6 CSW%. However, the young righty's 130 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 110 Pitching+ were blistering.
He can succeed tonight against a struggling offense. The Angels are 26th in wRC+ (84) and have had a 27.7 K% in the previous 30 days. They're also tied for 15th in wRC+ (103) and have a 25.7 K% at home this year. So, the Angels' high strikeout rate can help Ashcraft reach his ceiling, making him an enticing selection in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Road (PNC Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Cardinals are an above-average offense by all applicable splits tonight. They're 11th in wRC+ (108) versus lefties in 2023. St. Louis is 12th in wRC+ (110) in the previous 30 days. And the Red Birds are ninth in wRC+ (104) on the road this year.
They can shine in a non-threatening matchup tonight. Bailey Falter has a 4.86 ERA, 4.47 xERA and 4.60 xFIP in 11 appearances (10 starts) in 2023. Additionally, Pittsburgh's relievers have the 11th-highest ERA (4.23) in 2023.
- Home (PNC Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Pirates aren't a desirable full stack. However, mini-stacking some of their value hitters against a debuting lefty is intriguing. Drew Rom is making his big-league debut tonight, and he didn't dominate in Triple-A. Instead, Rom had a 4.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 134.2 innings at the Triple-A level. So, while the Pirates don't have a high-octane offense, they can get the better of a lefty who might not be ready for the bright lights of The Show yet.
- Austin Riley smashes with the platoon advantage at home. In 187 plate appearances against lefties at Truist Park since 2021, he's had a 369 OBP, .267 ISO and 149 wRC+.
- In 496 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Andrew McCutchen has had a .359 OBP, .244 ISO and 132 wRC+.
- Tommy Edman is in good form. In his last 68 plate appearances, he's had four homers, one stolen base, a .324 OBP, .266 ISO and 135 wRC+. Edman has also recorded a 116 wRC+ in 436 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 243 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Tyler O'Neill has had a .379 OBP, .273 ISO and 154 wRC+. O'Neill has also clubbed five homers, stolen two bases and tallied a .358 OBP, .244 ISO and 136 wRC+ in his previous 95 plate appearances.
- Willson Contreras has had a .344 OBP, .269 ISO and 137 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
- In 365 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Connor Joe has had a .362 OBP, .175 ISO and 114 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Cardinals are the most exciting source of hitters tonight. And the Pirates have some nifty value choices to free up cap space for the highlighted studs and Castillo at pitcher.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
