Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has eight games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested picks in this piece for the medium-sized slate include three starting pitchers, two stacks, two studs and four values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The highest-ceiling starting pitcher is the top-ranked hurler. However, the second-ranked starting pitcher is a more enticing pick in cash games at a more affordable salary. The third pitcher is lucky. However, he's a matchup-driven SP2 at DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. COL
Peralta heads into tonight's start in good form recently. According to FanGraphs, in his previous four starts spanning 23.0 innings, he's had a 3.52 ERA, 2.89 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 7.7 BB%, 34.1 K%, 29.2 CSW%, 101 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 102 Pitching+.
Additionally, the matchup and betting info are excellent. The Rockies are 27th in wRC+ (84) and have a 24.0 K% versus righties in 2023. They're tied for 25th in wRC+ (81) and have a 27.2 K% in the previous 30 days. And Colorado is tied for 26th in wRC+ (84) and has a 26.3 K% on the road this year. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Brewers are -240, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Dane Dunning (TEX) at OAK
Dunning has markedly outkicked his ERA estimators this season in 114.2 innings, evidenced by his 3.14 ERA, 4.59 xERA and 4.52 xFIP. And he's had a 4.76 ERA and 4.47 xFIP in his previous five starts.
Nevertheless, Dunning has a superb matchup, excellent betting info and a cap-friendly salary. The Athletics are 25th in wRC+ (87) and have a 25.4 K% versus righties this year. And the Rangers are -210.
GPP Recommendation:
Spencer Strider (ATL) at PIT
Strider's 3.45 ERA in his previous five starts totaling 31.1 innings, was decent. Yet, his other advanced metrics are jaw-dropping. Strider had a 2.11 xFIP, 2.04 SIERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.9 BB%, 41.7 K%, 34.9 CSW%, 123 Stuff+, 106 Location+ and 112 Pitching+.
Strider can pitch to the quality of his sterling underlying data in his tasty matchup tonight. The Pirates are 24th in wRC+ (88) and have a 23.5 K% versus righties in 2023. They're also tied for 28th in wRC+ (77) and had a 25.8 K% in the previous 30 days. And Pittsburgh is tied for 24th in wRC+ (90) at home this season.
The betting info is the cherry on top. The Braves are -290, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rangers have a top-shelf offense. First, they're second in wRC+ (129) against lefties in 2023. Second, Texas is third in wRC+ (125) in the previous 30 days. Third, the Rangers are sixth in wRC+ (106) on the road this season.
The matchup is ideal for the Rangers to light up the scoreboard. Ken Waldichuk had a 6.11 ERA and 4.59 xFIP in his five previous appearances (three starts). Texas should also tee off against Oakland's pitiful bullpen. The A's have the highest bullpen ERA (5.53) this year.
- Road (Guaranteed Rate Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/NYY -165
The Yankees have a motley crew of underwhelming hitters, and their offense has had the firepower of a popgun this season. So, they can bust tonight. However, Dylan Cease enters tonight on the heels of a trainwreck outing. Cease coughed up seven runs in only 1.2 innings on August 2. Perhaps, the most eye-catching number in his ugly turn was tossing 79 pitches without completing two innings. Allowing him to throw so many pitches in a short period and high-stress situations with runners on was probably irresponsible. Will it impact his performance tonight? Maybe. As a result, the Bronx Bombers are an enticing stack in GPPs.
- Marcus Semien is swinging a hot bat. In 101 plate appearances in the last 30 days, Semien had six homers, 22 runs, 14 RBI, a .396 OBP, .256 ISO and 163 wRC+.
- Corey Seager is white-hot. He's also outstanding against lefties, and Waldichuk is lousy against left-handed batters. In 444 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Seager has had a .329 OBP, .245 ISO and 134 wRC+. Meanwhile, Waldichuk has yielded a .388 OBP, .586 slugging and .408 wOBA to 86 lefties this season.
- In 211 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Mitch Garver has had a .355 OBP, .250 ISO and 140 wRC+.
- Jake Bauers is a stellar punt based on hitting leadoff. Still, his .322 OBP, .298 ISO and 133 wRC+ in 171 plate appearances against righties this year enhance the appeal for using him.
- In 147 plate appearances against lefties since reaching The Show in 2022, Ezequiel Duran has had a .340 OBP, .269 ISO and 143 wRC+.
- Mark Vientos hasn't translated his minor-league success to the majors yet. However, the right-handed slugger smashed southpaws in the minors.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Rangers should tear the cover off the ball tonight. And they have a mix of high-end studs and cap-friendly picks. Thus, they're the most exciting stack tonight and the best source of hitters. And the Yankees are an intriguing contrarian stack in tournaments.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
