There are 12 games on tonight’s large MLB DFS main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer is laser-focused on three starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts as the most attractive selections.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Saving money on starting pitching is paramount tonight. Thankfully, the first and third-ranked pitchers have low salaries and excellent matchups. The second-ranked hurler's salary isn't outrageous. Nevertheless, he's featured as only a GPP choice.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) vs. CWS
Rodriguez is rolling entering tonight's start. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 31.0 innings, the rookie has had a 2.61 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 7.4 BB%, 20.7 K%, 28.4 CSW%, 127 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 112 Pitching+. Rodriguez's pitch modeling has been outstanding.
He can stay hot in a cushy matchup tonight. The White Sox are 30th in wRC+ (82) and have a 23.6 K% versus righties in 2023. Chicago is 25th in wRC+ (87) and has a 25.1 K% in the previous 30 days. And they are 26th in wRC+ (84) and have a 24.7 K% on the road this season.
Additionally, the betting info is superb. According to Betting Pros, Baltimore is -225, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. Rodriguez is an easy selection as the top pitching option tonight when factoring in his salary.
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs. OAK
Woo is having a rock-solid, if slightly unlucky, rookie campaign. In 12 starts spanning 59.0 innings, he has a 4.58 ERA, 3.28 xERA, 4.14 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.2 BB%, 25.3 K% and 26.8 CSW%. All of Woo's ERA estimators are better than his ERA. Thus, he might be due for positive regression.
Woo can carve up a soft opponent tonight. The Athletics are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (89) and have a 25.0 K% versus righties in 2023. And Oakland is 21st in wRC+ (91) and has a 23.6 K% on the road this season.
GPP Recommendation:
Andrew Abbott (CIN) at SF
Abbott is enduring a hiccup. Still, he's pitched well in his rookie season. In 15 starts totaling 85.1 innings, Abbott has a 3.16 ERA, 3.90 xERA, 4.48 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 8.9 BB%, 26.8 K% and 26.7 CSW%. He can get back on track in a soft matchup tonight.
The Giants are 25th in wRC+ (90) and have a 25.4 K% versus lefties in 2023. San Francisco is 27th in wRC+ (79) and has a 24.7 K% in the previous 30 days. And they're 22nd in wRC+ (93) and have a 23.3 K% at home this season. And the betting info is decent. The Reds are slight underdogs (-105). But the game's total is a non-threatening 8.5 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The best offense in MLB is in MLB's most hitter-friendly ballpark. So, there should be fireworks. The Braves are first in wRC+ (135) and ISO (.235) versus lefties in 2023. Atlanta is first in wRC+ (142) and ISO (.238) in the previous 30 days. And they're first in wRC+ (121) and ISO (.215) on the road this season.
A matchup against Austin Gomber adds fuel to the fire. The 29-year-old lefty has a 5.48 ERA, 5.51 xERA and 5.05 xFIP in 26 starts this year. He's also coughed up 1.65 HR/9. And Colorado's bullpen is garbage. They have the fourth-highest ERA (5.19) this year.
- Road (Busch Stadium)
- Value: Low (DK)/Medium (FD)
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/SD -170
Adam Wainwright has no business starting in the majors anymore. He's had a 12.19 ERA and 5.48 xFIP in his last five starts. Waino's also surrendered 2.61 HR/9. And the veteran righty is crushed by lefties and righties. The 178 lefties who've faced Waino this year have had a .424 OBP, .631 slugging and .442 wOBA. And the 200 righties who've faced him have a .397 OBP, .578 slugging and .415 wOBA. Thus, any offense that faces him is a high-upside group to stack, and the Friars have the honor tonight.
- In 431 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Austin Riley has had 22 homers, a .364 OBP, .259 ISO and 145 wRC+.
- Juan Soto has 17 homers, a .407 OBP, .293 ISO and 161 wRC+ in 275 plate appearances versus righties on the road this year.
- Triston Casas has seven homers, a .399 OBP, .213 ISO and 141 wRC+ in 164 plate appearances against righties at home this season.
- Matt Wallner has seven homers, a .430 OBP, .359 ISO and 202 wRC+ in 93 plate appearances against righties at Target Field in his career.
- In 117 plate appearances against righties at home this year, Edouard Julien has seven homers, a .453 OBP, .330 ISO and 203 wRC+.
- Vaughn Grissom has a .349 OBP and 108 wRC+ in 83 plate appearances against lefties in the majors.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves and Padres are the most exciting offenses to choose hitters from. However, snagging pieces from each offense and mixing in high-value players such as Wallner and Julien is a sharp decision instead of stacking either in cash games.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
