Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has eight games starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested picks in this piece are reduced to three starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is relatively strong for a medium-sized slate. In fact, Max Scherzer and Max Fried would be the top-ranked option on many slates. Instead, the locked-in righty facing a slumping lineup gets the top honors. The second-ranked pitcher is a high-upside GPP pick. And the third option is the most desirable SP2 at DK and a nifty tournament option on FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Tyler Glasnow (TB) at SF
Glasnow enters tonight in outstanding form. According to FanGraphs, in his previous four starts spanning 27.0 innings, Glasnow has had a 1.67 ERA, 2.53 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, 5.9 BB%, 31.4 K%, 33.8 CSW%, 120 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 111 Pitching+.
Conversely, the Giants are slumping. They're 29th in wRC+ (70) and have had a 24.9 K% in the previous 30 days. San Francisco is also 18th in wRC+ (97) and has a 24.5 K% against righties this year. And the Giants are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (92) and have a 22.9 K% at home this season.
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) at SD
Rodriguez benefited immensely from a brief demotion to Triple-A after a rough start to his rookie campaign. As a result, in his last five starts totaling 28.2 innings, he's had a 3.45 ERA, 3.83 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 8.8 BB%, 21.2 K%, 28.7 CSW%, 126 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 109 Pitching+. Rodriguez's numbers were rock-solid. Yet, his pitch modeling was eye-popping. So, there's room for Rodriguez to build on his production.
The Padres are a midpack matchup for him tonight. San Diego is tied for 14th in wRC+ (100) and has a 21.9 K%. They're not a pushover for Rodriguez. Nevertheless, he has the goods to tie up the Friars.
GPP Recommendation:
Yu Darvish (SD) vs. BAL
Darvish has pitched well lately. In his previous six starts spanning 35.1 innings, he's had a 2.55 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 8.8 BB%, 21.2 K%, 28.7 CSW%, 115 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 105 Pitching+. Darvish has also done well at home for the Padres. In 252.1 innings at home since 2021, Darvish has had a 3.28 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 5.7 BB% and 28.5 K%.
The Orioles aren't the most imposing matchup for Darvish tonight. Baltimore is tied for 14th in wRC+ (100) and has a 22.6 K% versus righties in 2023. They're also 19th in wRC+ (93) and have had a 23.6 K% in the previous 30 days. So, Darvish has a DFS-friendly ceiling made for GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline:
The Braves have been a mainstay in the featured DFS stacks because they're an unstoppable force. They're first in wRC+ (122) and ISO (.224) versus righties in 2023. Atlanta is also first in wRC+ (138) and ISO (.248) in the previous 30 days. And the Braves are second in wRC+ (128) and first in ISO (.242) at home this season.
Clarke Schmidt isn't a punching bag. Nonetheless, he's not a frontline starter gamers should be concerned about stacking against, either.
- Home (Busch Stadium)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline:
The Cardinals have excellent applicable splits for tonight's matchup against lefty JP Sears. St. Louis is 11th in wRC+ (110) against lefties in 2023. They're seventh in wRC+ (120) in the previous 30 days. And the Red Birds are fifth in wRC+ (118) at home this season.
The matchup is bad news for the struggling Sears. In the lefty's previous five starts, he's had a 5.19 ERA, 5.28 xFIP and coughed up 2.08 HR/9. The A's bullpen is also a dreamy matchup for the Cardinals. Oakland's relievers have the highest ERA (5.50) in 2023.
- Matt Olson clubbed his 43rd homer of the season yesterday. He also has a .382 OBP, .348 ISO and 161 wRC+ in 526 plate appearances. And Schmidt has coughed up a .369 OBP, .500 slugging and .373 wOBA to 252 lefties this season.
- In 359 plate appearances against righties this year, Ozzie Albies has 23 homers, seven stolen bases, a .308 OBP, .248 ISO and 107 wRC+. Sadly, he exited yesterday's game early with a hamstring cramp. So, if the Braves hold Albies out of the lineup, Nicky Lopez is a sweet punt, and Nolan Arenado replaces Albies as a core stud.
- In 234 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Tyler O'Neill has had a .368 OBP, .260 ISO and 147 wRC+.
- Willson Contreras has had a .340 OBP, .275 ISO and 137 wRC+ against lefties in 347 plate appearances since 2021.
- In 289 plate appearances against righties in 2023, Jack Suwinski has 20 homers, five stolen bases, a .343 OBP, .295 ISO and 128 wRC+.
- MJ Melendez is raking in the second half. In 107 plate appearances in the second half, he has six homers, a .336 OBP, .253 ISO and 133 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves and Cardinals are explosive offenses with many excellent hitter options tonight. Thus, they're the backbone of DFS offenses tonight.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
