Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has 12 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. A large slate is befitting a vast pool of touted options. So, today’s primer has four starting pitchers, three stacks, two studs and four values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Spencer Strider might have a big night in the Bay against the struggling Giants. However, the top-ranked pitcher can also carve up a struggling offense at a fraction of the salary, making it palatable to fade Strider. The second-ranked pitcher has bounced back from two lousy starts to reel off three gems. The third option has sterling home splits. And the fourth option has found his footing after a rough start to his big-league career.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs. LAA
Senga has thrived at home this season. According to FanGraphs, in 68.1 innings at home, Senga has a 2.63 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 11.0 BB% and 29.7 K%. The walk rate wasn't ideal. But Senga's elite punchout ability can offset his shaky control.
He should cruise against the struggling Angels tonight. In the previous 30 days, the Angels are 26th in wRC+ (82) and have a 26.7 K%.
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. KC
Miller was rocked for six earned runs on July 26 and six more on August 1. He's bounced back splendidly since. In three subsequent starts, Miller has had a 1.06 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 4.26 SIERA, 0.88 WHIP, 4.5 BB%, 20.9 K%, 29.4 CSW%, 115 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 108 Pitching+. Miller's excellent pitch modeling data was a reason to believe his ERA was more legitimate than his ERA estimators would suggest.
The matchup and betting info are superb for Miller tonight. The Royals are 28th in wRC+ (86) and have a 22.9 K% versus righties in 2023. And Kansas City is 29th in wRC+ (78) and has a 26.1 K% on the road this year. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Mariners are -195, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
GPP Recommendations:
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs. CLE
Bassitt has a significant home and road split, getting rocked for a 5.02 ERA on the road. However, the veteran righty has a 2.83 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, 7.6 BB% and 25.6 K% in 76.1 innings at home this year.
Bassitt can maintain his dominance from the bump in Toronto tonight in a cushy matchup. The Guardians are tied for 19th in wRC+ (95) versus righties in 2023. Cleveland is 27th in wRC+ (81) in the previous 30 days. And they're tied for 21st in wRC+ (91) on the road this year. So, understandably, the Blue Jays are -170, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. CIN
Pfaadt didn't seamlessly transition from the minors to the majors this season. He's pitched well lately, though. In his past five starts spanning 30.0 innings, Pfaadt has had a 3.30 ERA, 4.11 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 7.4 BB%, 23.0 K%, 28.2 CSW%, 105 Stuff+, 106 Location+ and 106 Pitching+.
The Reds might not provide him with much resistance tonight. Cincinnati is tied for 19th in wRC+ (95) and has a 24.4 K% versus righties in 2023. And the Reds are 24th in wRC+ (87) and have a 28.0 K% in the previous 30 days. In addition, the betting info is decent. The game's total is 9.5 runs, which isn't ideal. Still, the Arizona is -155.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Road (Fenway Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Dodgers have a juggernaut offense by every applicable split for tonight's matchup. They're fourth in wRC+ (113) and second in ISO (.194) versus righties in 2023. Los Angeles is eighth in wRC+ (114) in the previous 30 days. And they're tied for third in wRC+ (109) on the road this year.
LA's offense will get a lift from Fenway Park's hitter-friendly park factors and Kutter Crawford's inability to navigate his home park. Crawford has a 5.95 ERA and 5.07 xFIP at home this year. And in 81.1 innings at home since reaching the majors in 2021, he's had a 5.64 ERA and 4.89 xFIP. Thus, the Dodgers should smash tonight.
- Home (Fenway Park)
- Value: Low (DK)/Medium (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Dodgers turned Lance Lynn's season around after trading for him. Still, the Red Sox are a challenging matchup. Boston is tied for 10th in wRC+ (104) versus righties in 2023. Furthermore, they're seventh in wRC+ (112) at home this year.
And even with Lynn's rebound with the Dodgers, he has ghastly numbers against lefties. The 306 left-handed batters who've faced Lynn this year have hit 18 homers and posted a .366 OBP, .565 slugging and .393 wOBA. As a result, Boston's left-handed hitters are exciting stacking picks.
- Home (Target Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIN -130
The Twins have a top-10 offense by all useful splits for tonight. Minnesota is sixth in wRC+ (108) versus righties in 2023. They're seventh in wRC+ (116) in the previous 30 days. And the Twins are sixth in wRC+ (115) at home this year.
Unfortunately, Dane Dunning is in a groove. So, Minnesota has their work cut out for them tonight. The matchup should suppress the percentage of rosters they're stacked on, which is ideal for GPPs.
- Mookie Betts rolls into his old stomping grounds on a heater. In his last 98 plate appearances, he's had seven homers, three stolen bases, a .490 OBP, .326 ISO and 233 wRC+.
- Triston Casas has raked with the platoon advantage at home. In 160 plate appearances against righties at Fenway Park this year, he has seven homers, a .396 OBP, .220 ISO and 141 wRC+.
- In 111 plate appearances against righties this year, Matt Wallner has eight homers, two stolen bases, a .387 OBP, .304 ISO and 164 wRC+.
- Edouard Julien has 10 homes, three stolen bases, a .408 OBP, .217 ISO and 158 wRC+ in 239 plate appearances against righties this season.
- James Outman has had a streaky season. Thankfully, he's in good form lately. In his previous 85 plate appearances, he's had three homers, four stolen bases, a .435 OBP, .176 ISO and 155 wRC+.
- Michael Busch hit his first big-league homer yesterday. Maybe it's a sign he's ready to translate his Triple-A success to the majors. In 424 plate appearances at Triple-A this season, Busch had a .432 OBP, .292 ISO and 148 wRC+.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Dodgers and Red Sox have appealing hitters in what should be a slugfest at Fenway Park. In addition, the Twins have some excellent one-offs and are an appealing complete stack in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
