Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has 12 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Since it’s a large slate, today’s primer has four starting pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
It's uncomfortable to fade Spencer Strider at home against the struggling Giants. However, the top-ranked pitcher has pitched better than Strider lately, has a good matchup as well and has similarly alluring betting info. The second-ranked pitcher has stellar underlying data recently and has a cushy matchup. The third-ranked pitcher is an intriguing GPP option because his opponent strikes out a ton. And the final pitcher on the table has shown signs of life lately, making him a nifty tournament choice.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. PIT
According to FanGraphs, in Lopez's previous five starts spanning 31.0 innings, he's had a sterling 1.45 ERA, 2.50 xFIP, 2.89 SIERA, 0.94 WHIP, 3.3 BB%, 29.2 K%, 30.2 CSW%, 94 Stuff+, 109 Location+ and 110 Pitching+. Lopez is dialed in and has an excellent matchup tonight.
The Pirates are tied for 22nd in wRC+(90) and have a 23.9 K% versus righties in 2023. Pittsburgh is tied for 19th in wRC+ (95) and has a 26.2 K% in the previous 30 days. And they're tied for 24th (89) and have a 25.3 K% on the road this year.
In addition to having a superb matchup, Lopez has sweet betting info. According to Betting Pros, the Twins are -225, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Thus, it's a no-brainer to save salary by spinning down from Strider to Lopez in cash games. And Lopez's ceiling is perfect for tournaments, too.
Kyle Gibson (BAL) at OAK
Gibson had a putrid 5.34 ERA in his last five starts, totaling 30.1 innings. However, he was a victim of an inflated homer rate and a lousy strand rate. Therefore, Gibson had much better underlying data. Specifically, he had a 2.98 xFIP, 3.36 SIERA, 1.25 WHIP, 5.6 BB%, 24.6 K% and 30.2 CSW% in those starts.
The Athletics are the cure to what ails Gibson. Oakland is 24th in wRC+ (89) and has a 24.9 K% versus righties in 2023. They're also tied for 26th in wRC+ (89) and have a 25.1 K% at home this year. Moreover, the Orioles are -186, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
GPP Recommendations:
J.P. France (HOU) vs. SEA
France has significantly outkicked his 4.33 xFIP in his last five appearances (four starts) spanning 31.1 innings, dazzling with a 1.44 ERA. So, he's benefited from good luck. Still, France's pitch modeling was quite good. In those appearances, he had a 100 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 103 Pitching+.
France has a challenging matchup tonight. Yet, that doesn't matter in GPPs. It's all about chasing upside, and Seattle's 25.9 K% versus righties in 2023, 26.7 K% in the previous 30 days and 26.5 K% on the road this year fuel France's upside. Thankfully, the betting info is also rock-solid. The Astros are -150, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) at SD
The light might have gone on for Pfaadt. In his previous five starts spanning 29.0 innings, he's had a 4.34 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, 3.84 SIERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.9 BB%, 23.8 K%, 29.5 CSW%, 105 Stuff+, 107 Location+ and 107 Pitching+. The rookie also had two quality starts in his last five starts.
The Padres are a tough matchup by most applicable splits. However, they're merely tied for 14th in wRC+ (100) versus righties. Pfaadt's a risky DFS selection. Still, his low salary and recent performance make the risk worth embracing since he can greatly outproduce his salary if he remains in a groove.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves have jaw-dropping splits and a favorable matchup tonight. Atlanta is first in wRC+ (121) against righties this year, first in wRC+ (138) in the previous 30 days and second in wRC+ (128) at home. They're also first in ISO (.222) against righties, first in ISO (.249) in the previous 30 days and first in ISO (.240) at home.
Meanwhile, Alex Cobb is in a funk. He's had a 6.58 ERA and 4.09 xFIP in his last five starts. And Cobb's had an ugly 5.08 ERA on the road since joining the Giants as a free agent in 2022.
- Home (Busch Stadium)
- Value: High
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Cardinals wet themselves against a southpaw last night. Fortunately for them, they can redeem themselves against lefty Joey Lucchesi tonight. New York's lefty has a 4.43 ERA, 6.88 xERA and 4.87 xFIP in five starts this year. This is also his first start for the Mets since hitting the Injured List (IL) in the middle of May. The Red Birds have the offense to punish Luccesi in his return to The Show, ranking tied for ninth in wRC+ (111) against lefties in 2023, seventh in wRC+ (118) in the previous 30 days and fifth in wRC+ (120) at home this season.
- Home (Target Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIN -225
The Twins might not be the first offense that comes to mind as a juggernaut. However, they're sixth in wRC+ (109) versus righties this year, sixth in wRC+ (120) in the previous 30 days and sixth in wRC+ (116) at home. Minnesota is also tied for fourth in ISO (.205) during the last 30 days.
- In 220 plate appearances against righties at home this year, Matt Olson has 22 homers, a .414 OBP, .411 ISO and 191 wRC+.
- Michael Harris has five homers, a .357 OBP, .195 ISO and 130 wRC+ in 141 plate appearances against righties at home this season.
- In 349 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Willson Contreras has had a .344 OBP, .274 ISO and 139 wRC+
- Edouard Julien has 10 homers, a .415 OBP, .230 ISO and 167 wRC+ in 225 plate appearances against righties in his rookie season.
- In 237 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Tyler O'Neill has had a .371 OBP, .259 ISO and 147 wRC+.
- Matt Wallner has eight homers, a .394 OBP, .322 ISO and 174 wRC+ in 104 plate appearances against righties this season.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
Conveniently, the Braves, Cardinals and Twins have an ideal blend of high-end talent, low-salary value options and players with position eligibility that blends perfectly tonight. So, they're the best offenses to invest in hitters from in all game types.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
