Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is large, featuring 13 games starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The vast pool of options is reduced to three suggested starting pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-ranked pitcher has a ceiling that's tailor-made for GPPs. Yet, pivoting to the second-ranked pitcher in cash games is appealing because of the matchup and salary discount. The third pitcher isn't as attractive on FD as on DK. He's a rock-solid, albeit high-risk, SP2 at DK in all game types.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Lance Lynn (LAD) vs. COL
Lynn is off to a good start with his new employer. According to FanGraphs, in two starts spanning 13.0 innings for the Dodgers, Lynn has a 2.77 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 26.0 K% and 32.8 CSW%.
He can shine again tonight in a plus matchup. The Rockies are tied for 29th in wRC+ (83) and have a 24.3 K% versus righties in 2023. They're 29th in wRC+ (75) and have a 28.2 K% in the previous 30 days. And Colorado is tied for 27th in wRC+ (82) and has a 26.7 K% on the road this season.
In addition, the betting info is drool-inducing. According to Betting Pros, the Dodgers are -325, and the game's total is 9.0 runs.
Johan Oviedo (PIT) vs. CIN
Oviedo's had a streaky season. He's outperformed his ERA estimators lately. Still, Oviedo's 2.32 ERA in his previous five starts spanning 31.0 innings was good. He also had a DFS-friendly 25.4 K% and an acceptable 26.6 CSW%.
The matchup might allow him to continue to outperform his underlying data tonight. The Reds are 19th in wRC+ (95) and have a 24.3 K% versus righties in 2023. And they're 28th in wRC+ (81) and have had an eye-popping 27.7 K% in the previous 30 days. As a result, Oviedo should strike out enough batters to provide him some wiggle room to allow a few runs and still be valuable in DFS.
GPP Recommendation:
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. BAL
Castillo has loved pitching in Seattle. According to Baseball-Reference, in 109.0 innings at T-Mobile Park, Castillo has a 2.39 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 5.6 BB% and 32.3 K%. The veteran righty's elite strikeout ability makes him a high-upside option in GPPs.
And the Orioles haven't been the most imposing offense lately, ranking 15th in wRC+ (100) in the previous 30 days. Finally, the betting info is encouraging. The Mariners are -142, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
Atlanta's offense is a juggernaut by every meaningful split for tonight's matchup. They're first in wRC+ (121) and ISO (.223) against righties in 2023. Atlanta is second in wRC+ (133) and first in ISO (.246) in the previous 30 days. And the Braves are first in wRC+ (118) and ISO (.211) on the road this year.
The Braves can steamroll a below-average righty tonight. Tylor Megill has a 5.45 ERA, 6.38 xERA and 5.17 xFIP in 16 starts this year. He's also struggled with all hitters, ceding a .362 wOBA to lefties and a .365 wOBA to righties this season.
- Home (Citizens Bank Park)
- Value: Low (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
Dallas Keuchel earned his way back to the majors by spinning a 1.13 ERA in six starts in Triple-A this year. However, Keuchel's 4.01 xFIP was less impressive. Moreover, he had a 9.20 ERA, 5.49 xERA and 4.72 xFIP in 60.2 innings in 2022. Keuchel could not tame righties in 2022, coughing up a .403 OBP, .596 slugging and .423 wOBA to 243 right-handed batters. Thus, Philadelphia's righties are exciting options to stack against Keuchel tonight.
- Home (PNC Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/PIT +105
The Pirates aren't a fun offense to fully stack. However, mini-stacking some of their bargain hitters is a nifty move to free up the requisite salary-cap space to invest in the Braves and Phillies. Andrew Abbott has drastically out-kicked his ERA estimators, and the other shoe might have dropped. He's allowed 10 earned runs, walked eight and struck out eight batters in his last two starts, totaling only 9.0 innings. The long-term outlook for Abbott is bright. But hiccups aren't uncommon for a rookie, and Abbott might be working through them.
- In 387 plate appearances against righties this year, Matt Olson has 33 homers, a .398 OBP, .364 ISO and 170 wRC+.
- Nick Castellanos has had a .350 OBP, .197 ISO and 127 wRC+ in 414 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 424 plate appearances against southpaws since 2021, Alec Bohm has had a .373 OBP, .197 ISO and 142 wRC+.
- In 127 plate appearances since the Brewers recalled Brice Turang from the minors, he's had three homers, five stolen bases, a .362 OBP and 109 wRC+.
- Luis Rengifo is on an exceptional heater. In 122 plate appearances since July 1, he's had seven homers, a .385 OBP, .296 ISO and 168 wRC+.
- MJ Melendez is hitting well in the second half, and Adam Wainwright hasn't had answers for lefties this year. In 97 plate appearances in the second half, Melendez has six homers, a .340 OBP, .270 ISO and 137 wRC+. Meanwhile, Waino allowed a .458 OBP, .704 slugging and .483 wOBA to 143 lefties.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves and Phillies are the most exciting offenses to stack. But the Pirates are a compelling complementary mini-stack to squeeze the Braves and Phillies under the salary cap.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
