In fantasy football, we often look for ceiling outcomes from players to propel our rosters past our opponents and toward a championship. One aspect that is often overlooked, however, is consistency. Consistency can save fantasy managers from question marks at a starting roster spot, and inconsistency can cause plenty of headaches.
This is the third part in this series examining consistency at each fantasy-relevant position. If you haven’t already, feel free to check out my articles on quarterbacks and running backs.
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Measuring Wide Receiver Consistency: Takeaways & Targets
With Wide Receivers being pushed up draft boards due to their great success in 2022, it’s important to know whether the wide receiver you’re considering drafting is worth that pick or whether you’re merely taking them because the position is costing more as a whole.
In this article, we’ll look at not only consistent and inconsistent wide receivers in terms of fantasy performances, but we’ll also consider those who are consistent touchdown scorers or involved consistently with reliable target numbers.
Top End Performers
The fantasy WR1 overall in 2022 had very few rivals who were even close to him in terms of consistency, as he led the league in receiving yards per game (110.7), targets per game (11.2), top-five weekly finishes (9) and top-12 weekly finishes (9). Jefferson’s consistency led to finishing the year with only four games outside the top 20.
Many were concerned Hill would drop off without Patrick Mahomes, but in his first year in Miami, he was second in receiving yards per game (105.4), sixth in targets per game (10.3), second in top-five weekly finishes (6) and fourth in top-12 weekly finishes (7). Hill had four games outside the top 20 wide receivers but only one outside the top 25.
If it wasn’t for Kupp’s unfortunate injury, it might have been another historic season for the Rams receiver, who was one of four receivers to average over 90 receiving yards, along with ranking third in targets per game (10.9) and finishing fourth in top-five weekly finishes (5). What is noteworthy with Kupp is that he actually finished inside the top 12 at a higher rate than Jefferson when looking at games played rather than total finishes there.
The table below covers the top ten wide receivers in points per game and shows their consistency for fantasy weekly finishes.
| PPR PPG Rank | Weekly Top 5 % | Weekly Top 12 % | Weekly Top 24 % | |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 56.3% | 56.3% | 75.0% |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 55.6% | 66.7% | 88.9% |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 87.5% |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 37.5% | 50.0% | 56.3% |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 5 | 36.4% | 45.5% | 63.6% |
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 13.3% | 53.3% | 66.7% |
| AJ Brown | 7 | 18.8% | 37.5% | 68.8% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 18.8% | 43.8% | 62.5% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 60.0% |
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 11 | 11.1% | 44.4% | 66.7% |
| Tee Higgins | 12 | 21.4% | 28.6% | 64.3% |
Stefon Diggs struggled to see real ceiling outcomes in 2022, only finishing inside the top five wide receivers on two occasions, but his consistency at finishing inside the top twelve (53%) meant that he didn’t harm your fantasy team more often than not.
Likewise, Amon-Ra St. Brown struggled to hit dominant weekly performances but finished as a top-12 option 33% of the time. If it wasn’t for him being tackled a league-high seven times inside the five-yard line, then perhaps the touchdowns would have rocketed him into those top-five finishes that really help to crush your opponents.
Lower Tier Consistency
These wide receivers didn’t necessarily win you leagues, but they consistently ended up inside the top 24 wide receivers each week, and often at a price where that performance might not have been expected.
| Weekly Top 24 % | |
| Keenan Allen | 66.7% |
| Tyler Lockett | 60.0% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 57.1% |
| DeVonta Smith | 56.3% |
| DK Metcalf | 56.3% |
| Amari Cooper | 50.0% |
| Mike Williams | 50.0% |
| Christian Kirk | 50.0% |
| Rondale Moore | 50.0% |
| Jahan Dotson | 45.5% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 43.8% |
| Chris Godwin | 42.9% |
| Chris Olave | 42.9% |
| Michael Pittman | 40.0% |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 40.0% |
| DJ Chark | 40.0% |
Isaiah Hodgins — a waiver wire hero in 2023, Hodgins joined the Giants in Week 10 after playing two games for Buffalo earlier on in the season. Hodgins finished as a top-24 wide receiver in 50% of his appearances for the Giants.
Rondale Moore — Given the Cardinals’ struggles in 2022, Moore’s appearance here is quite surprising, with him being a reliable flex play more often than not.
Consistent Touchdown Scorers
While touchdowns aren’t the stickiest of stats, it’s a piece of the puzzle that helps us determine what values a player brings to the table year in and year out. Since the start of the 2020 season, these are the wide receivers who have posted more than one eight-touchdown haul.
| 8+ TD seasons 2020-2022 | |
| Davante Adams | 3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 |
| AJ Brown | 2 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 |
| Mike Evans | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 |
Takeaways and Targets
Cooper Kupp — Coming off a down year for the Rams, Cooper Kupp showed that it didn’t matter for his production, continuing to be elite in almost every metric. With the Rams’ defense set to be below average again this year, more shootouts and pass-heavy scripts should ensue. Kupp has every chance to be the WR1 overall again and should be looked at as one of the best values of the first round.
Tyler Lockett — Perenially undervalued, Tyler Lockett has scored eight touchdowns in two of the last three seasons, was a top-24 wide receiver in 60% of his appearances last year and has finished as a top-24 option in 62.5% of his career in the NFL.
Isaiah Hodgins — It was a small sample size in a talent-depleted Giants offense, but Hodgins had a connection with Daniel Jones, and his role seems secure for 2023. Currently going as WR70 in FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, there are worse fliers to take.
More Fantasy Football Strategy
- Salary Cap Draft Guide (Premium)
- Guide to TE Premium Drafts (Premium)
- Guide to Superflex Drafts | More Superflex Draft Strategy & Advice
- Guide to Streaming Quarterbacks | Bye Week Strategy Guide & Targets
- Guide to Drafting Kickers (Why to Consider Not Drafting A Kicker)
- Guide to Drafting D/STs
- Hero RB Strategy & Targets
- Robust RB Strategy & Targets
- Zero RB Strategy & Targets | Was Zero RB Effective Last Season? | More Targets
- Late-Round QB Strategy & Targets | Was Late-Round QB Effective Last Season?
- Was Zero WR Draft Strategy Effective Last Season?
- Running Back Handcuff Rankings & Targets | Handcuff Strategy & Advice
- Training Camp Notes for RB Handcuffs
- Wide Receiver Handcuff Draft Strategy & Targets
- Value-Based Draft Strategy & Targets
- Quarterback-by-Committee Strategy & Targets
- Offensive Linemen Rankings
- How to Approach the Tight End Position (More Tight End Draft Strategy)
- Players Who Lose Value in PPR Leagues
- Players Seeing Boosts in PPR Leagues
- Positional Disparity Guide
- Impact of Contract Years
- Offenses That Help & Hurt Running Backs | Tight Ends
- Vampire League Guide
- Guillotine League Guide
- Scott Fish Bowl 13 Strategy Guide
- Best Last-Place Punishments For Your Fantasy Football League
- Quarterback-By-Committee Strategy & Guide
- Tiers Explainer: What Are They & How Do You Use Them?
- ADP Explainer: What Is It & How To Use It Effectively
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