Tom Strachan | Tue, Aug 15th 2023, 7:25am EDT

Measuring Running Back Consistency: Takeaways & Targets (2023 Fantasy Football)

In fantasy football, we often look for ceiling outcomes from players to propel our rosters past our opponents and toward a championship. One aspect that is often overlooked, however, is consistency. Consistency can save fantasy managers from question marks at a starting roster spot, and inconsistency can cause plenty of headaches.

This is the second in this series examining consistency at each fantasy-relevant position. You can check out the Quarterback Consistency article here if you haven’t already.

Running Backs above all other positions are the key to successful fantasy years, whether it’s from elite running backs taken at the top of your draft or from finding those further down a draft board and them being able to stay consistent as you roll towards a championship. In this article, we’ll look at not only consistent and inconsistent running backs in terms of fantasy performances, we’ll also consider those who are consistent touchdown scorers or involved consistently in the receiving game.

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Measuring Running Back Consistency: Takeaways & Targets

Consistent Top-Tier Performers Over Several Years

It’s highly unusual for any running backs to deliver year after year consistent performances, simply because of the nature of the position and how many hits they take, it’s rare for any running backs to play even two full seasons without missing games. When we do come across those rare running backs able to consistently perform at the top for several years, their prices skyrocket.

Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)

For the last two years Ekeler has been as consistent as any running back, with 18 touchdowns in back-to-back years, generating 1.2 PPR points per touch in each of those seasons and topping 40 receiving yards per game in each of the last three seasons.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

Over the last three seasons McCaffrey has never been outside the top five running backs in PPR points per game, ranking first, second and fifth. McCaffrey’s biggest challenge has been staying healthy, combining for only ten games across 2020-2021. When healthy though, McCaffrey has averaged over 44 receiving yards per game in each of the last three seasons, seeing a minimum of 5.1 receptions per game per year. McCaffrey’s abilities are unmatched, but like all running backs, injuries are his biggest enemy.

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)

Since the start of the 2020 season Chubb has never finished a season outside the top 12 running backs in PPR points, which for a player who doesn’t catch many balls is a remarkable achievement. In each of those seasons, Chubb has averaged over 5.0 yards per carry, totaled an average of at least 87 yards per game and has scored a minimum of 9 touchdowns per season, and with Kareem Hunt out of the picture, we might be on the precipice of seeing Chubb’s ceiling outcomes.

Aaron Jones (RB – GB)

Another consistent performer is Aaron Jones who has averaged between 0.9 and 1.0 PPR points per touch over each of the last three seasons and has scored at least seven touchdowns in each of those seasons. With many questions lingering over Jordan Love as a quarterback, it might not be surprising to see the Packers lean heavily on their running game in 2023.

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)

When we ignore Derrick Henry’s age and the arguments against him that seem to fail time and time again, we’re left with a picture of consistency. For three straight years, Henry has scored exactly 0.8 PPR points per touch and he’s scored at least 10 touchdowns in each of those seasons. If Henry can overcome the leagues worst offensive line then he might just have one more big year in him.

Lower-Tier Talents Consistent Over Several Years

AJ Dillon (RB – GB)

Much like his Packers teammate, AJ Dillon has been consistent, to a degree at least. While he hasn’t lit up the fantasy box scores, he has scored seven touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, which isn’t to be sniffed at given the cost involved in drafting or trading for him. Dillon has also scored between 0.8 and 0.9 PPR points per touch in each of the last three seasons. If the Packers do lean more run-heavy, it’s possible he has a bigger upside than we’ve seen before now.

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

The former Bears running back has never been the most desirable option in fantasy football but over the last three years, he’s stayed consistent with 0.8-0.9 PPR points per touch each season and scoring between six and nine touchdowns per year. Now in an improved offense, he could be set for a breakout year

Consistent Receiving Work

Another area of running back production that is important is the receiving game. Very few backs have consistency in this area, in part due to changing quarterbacks or offensive schemes or various other influences beyond their control. Over the course of the last three years, there are only eight running backs who have averaged 2.5 receptions per game in each of those seasons.

Aaron Jones (RB – GB) (3.5, 3.5, 3.3)
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) (4.0, 3.8, 5.5)
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) (3.1, 2.7, 2.7)
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC) (6.5, 4.3, 5.3)
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) (5.1, 5.3, 5.7)
D’Andre Swift (RB – DET) (3.2, 4.8, 3.6)
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) (2.6, 4.2, 3.5)
Leonard Fournette (RB – TB) (4.8, 4.9, 2.8)

Inconsistent Performers

Perhaps more than anything when we look at consistency we should be concerned by a lack of it from certain players. The players below include some talented players who have struggled to consistently deliver on all fronts.

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

In 2022 Harris saw 15.6 rush attempts per game compared to his 2021 rookie season average of 18.5, he also regressed from 4.0 yards per carry to 3.8 and more importantly saw yards per reception drop from 6.3 to 5.5. This coincided with Harris gaining weight, picking up an injury and losing work to undrafted free agent, Jaylen Warren. Without an injury to Warren, it’s hard to imagine we see a repeat performance of 2021.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)

While Samaje Perine is no longer in Cinncinati, it’s fair to consider if Mixon will be able to completely capitalise in the ways he used to. Over the last three years Mixon’s missed tackles per game has gone from 1.3 to 0.3 and then up to 0.8. Mixon’s rushing Expected Points Added has also jumped around from -21.3 to -49.0 and then -9.8 last year. This also carries over to touchdowns where Mixon had 0.67 in 2020, 1.0 in 2021 and then regressed to 0.67 in 2022. Perhaps the cliff edge has already arrived for Mixon.

D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)

Much has been said about D’Andre Swift this offseason, and while it can’t be denied that he has a high upside, there’s a clear downside too. Swift went from 4.5 targets per game in his rookie season to 6.1 in his second before dropping to 4.8 last year. Was the 2021 season an outlier? Perhaps. It seems hard to imagine the Eagles targeting him that often after targeting running backs at a league low 12.1% last year.

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)

Peak Alvin Kamara was an imposing force in fantasy football but his touchdowns have regressed for three straight seasons, from 21 in 2020, to nine the following season and a lowly four in 2022. With added competition this year, it looks bleak for one of the true elites of the last five years.

Targets and Takeaways

Consistency is always going to be hard to find at the running back position for all the reasons we’ve covered in this article, but there are a few targets we can lean into for 2023.

Aaron Jones (RB – GB)

Despite turning 28 this year, Jones is showing no signs of regression and has been a consistent performer. The Packers offensive line looks stronger this year and Jones should be on everyone’s draftboards.