The debate for the top player at each position group in the NFL is always fun, especially when you look at the top receivers in football. Many could make the case that Davante Adams is the best receiver in football, but you could also bring Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs into the conversation.
However, when you look at wide receiver rankings for fantasy football, the consensus top three names are Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp. Each player has their own unique skill set, and they all play in their own way. Let’s jump into what makes Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase the top candidates for WR1 in fantasy football this year.
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Making the Case WR1: Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Throughout the summer, I’ve studied that Justin Jefferson has been labeled as the consensus number one overall pick in Fantasy Football. Rightfully so, the Vikings’ top receiver had an absolute monster season last year. With 184 targets, Jefferson was able to record 128 receptions for 1,809 yards and nine touchdowns. By far, it was the best of any wide receiver last season, and it was a top-10 finish all-time in fantasy football history.
While there’s been a lot of discussion this summer around running backs and their contracts, it’s actually quite the opposite for Jefferson. All contract discussions seem to be positive for the talented wideout, and the league expects Jefferson to become the highest-paid receiver in the NFL.
When you watch the film, you can see that Jefferson faces a lot of man coverage. Last season, he ran 369 routes vs. man coverage (per PlayerProfiler), which was the most for any receiver in the league. With that, he won 42.8% of those routes vs. man coverage, which was the 13th-best in the NFL. Not only does Jefferson win his routes due to his fluidity and athleticism, but the Vikings can scheme him open.
For example, the Vikings will pass out of condensed sets where they’ll align Jefferson as the ‘X’ receiver and have him run a deep-over to the right side of the offense. In the process, the receivers on the right side of the formation will run clearing routes that allow Jefferson to be open. But that’s just one example of a player for a player that has seen a consistent increase in target share each season since his arrival.
He plays in an NFC North division that he’s done quite well against during his career. With 18 games played against the Packers, Vikings and Bears, he’s posted 114 receptions for 1,803 yards and seven touchdowns. Whether Jefferson plays inside or outside, he’s producing. Last season, he was third in yards per route run at 2.70 yards, and his 28% target share was 10th best in the NFL.
For this season, it’ll be tough for him to replicate the receiving totals he posted from a season ago, especially with players such as Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and T.J. Hockenson taking targets from Jefferson. However, that shouldn’t prevent anyone from selecting Jefferson as their top receiver and potentially as the top pick of fantasy drafts.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
Despite battling a hip injury in 2022, Chase had another great season with the Bengals. He had a career-high in receptions with 87 and a career-high in targets with 134 of them. Even though his yards per reception were down from his rookie season (18.0 yards per reception in 2021), his 12.0 yards per reception in 2022 is respectable (55th best in the NFL).
If fully healthy, there’s no reason to believe he can’t have a career year in receptions, yardage and touchdowns this season. While there are other options for Joe Burrow in this Bengals offense, his favorite over the last two seasons has still been Ja’Marr Chase with 262 targets. The next closest is Tee Higgins, with 229 targets.
When you watch the film on Chase, he can win vertically down the field or find a gap in zone coverage over the middle of the field. This gives Burrow a window, and with their rapport with each other, it seems destined to be a completion and potential big gain. In the Bengals playoff game against the Bills last season, Chase found an opening when the defense ran cover three, leading to a 28-yard touchdown.
One key area that will need to be improved for Chase is his drops. Last year, he had 10 drops, which is good for almost one per game. However, his ability in the red zone makes him even more intriguing as a No. 1 receiver for fantasy. Last season, he had 24 targets inside the 20, and the 113 yards he posted from there was the best in the NFL.
With the sixth-best target share of the NFL at 29.3% per game (per Player Profiler), I’d expect those numbers to actually improve for Chase mostly because he’s got the fourth easiest schedule for wide receivers on our strength of schedule ranking. This should lead to more opportunities and more production. While it’ll surprise some, I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone decided to roll the dice on Chase being the top receiver in fantasy football this season.
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
Limited to just nine games in 2022, Kupp will look to rebound this season. His 2.40 yards per route run was eighth-best in the NFL last season, and he was still able to produce 812 receiving yards on 338 routes run (per PFF). Some may believe Kupp is a shell of his former self, but I beg to differ.
Last year, his 31.0% target share was third-best in the NFL. Meanwhile, his 18.4 points per game were the best for wide receivers in the NFL before getting injured. But most of the success for Kupp won’t rely on just his health, but it’ll be about quarterback Matthew Stafford‘s health. If they stay healthy, we could see Kupp have a bounce-back year for the Rams.
When watching Kupp run routes, he runs efficiently, no matter where he’s aligned. Last season, he did have 224 snaps out of the slot, which is higher than any receiver on this list, but it’s only ranked 33rd in the NFL. Much of his success is due to his fluidity and ability to break routes in or out with a purpose. Also, he catches everything. Last year, he only had one drop, and in his six-year career, he’s only had 20 drops.
The schedule for Kupp is the 19th best in the NFL. Fortunately, he’s got the ability to win, no matter who is aligned across from him. Matchups against the Cardinals, Bengals, Colts and Cowboys before the Rams’ Week 10 bye is more than favorable for him to succeed early on. If healthy, you could make the case that Kupp will be at the heels of both Chase and Jefferson for the top receiver spot in fantasy football.
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