Last season was a prime example of how league winners are often not the players taken with the first several picks. Players with championship-clinching upside can be snagged at any point in the draft. The main issue is identifying who those high-ceiling individuals are. That’s where our featured experts come in. Each has chosen an early-round and later-round tailback they think will reach their lofty upside.
Remember, none of the players mentioned here are a lock to win you a title. They are just the guys who have that upside within their range of outcomes while also boasting a decent chance of achieving that status.
Spoiler alert: you are going to see the names Tony Pollard and Cam Akers more than once below.
- Identifying Rookie WR1s & WR2s | 6 Wide Receivers Most Likely to Become WR1s
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
League-Winning Running Backs to Target Early
What RB between RB6-20 in our consensus half-PPR RB ADP has the most league-winning upside?
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
“Tony Pollard is going as RB6 in ADP right now, but it is difficult to imagine him finishing worse than RB3 this season. The former receiver at Memphis was only targeted 55 times last season and was still the RB7 in a split with Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke and Kellen Moore are gone, leaving a gigantic void for one of the league’s best per-touch performers to erupt on the stat sheet. ”
– Bo McBrayer (FantasyPros)
“Tony Pollard was the RB7 last year, averaging 14.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite splitting the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott. Yet, he is the eighth running back in the ADP behind Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Last year Elliott had 231 rushing attempts for 876 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022. While all that work won’t fall into Pollard’s lap, the former Memphis star should easily see over 220 rushing attempts after totaling 193 last season. Pollard is the only running back outside the top three with overall RB1 potential, even if the Cowboys re-sign Elliott.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“I’ll keep singing Tony Pollard’s praises any chance I get. Pollard is easily one of the most explosive backs in the NFL. Last year he led the NFL in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt (minimum 100 rushing attempts per Fantasy Points Data). Pollard’s ability as a receiver is what can put him over the top. Last season he ranked sixth in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Pollard is a league winner.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“Tony Pollard broke out last season after he took over as the Cowboys featured back and was the RB2 overall from Weeks 8-16. A successful recovery from a broken ankle suffered during the playoffs should allow Pollard to emerge as a legit threat to finish as the RB1 overall. Pollard will be the undisputed RB1 for the Cowboys with zero competition for touches, and with Mike McCarthy now calling the offensive plays, we should see a new focus on the Cowboys’ running game. Pollard combined his dual-threat ability with his game-breaking potential to average 5.9 yards per touch (fifth-highest). Pollard has immense upside and a high ceiling, making him a legit threat to have league-winning upside. ”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)
“Quoting the Roman philosopher Seneca, “Luck is when preparation meets opportunity.” Lucky people generate their own good fortune, and my fantasy football fortunes are riding on Tony Pollard this season. He’s currently RB8 in consensus half-PPR RB rankings. Pollard suffered a fractured left fibula in January 22, but all reports are that he is experiencing a smooth recovery. Let other managers lower their rankings due to his leg. I’m optimistic on Pollard for several reasons. The Cowboys have placed a franchise tag on Pollard, which emphasizes their confidence in his success. Ezekiel Elliott is no longer a Dallas Cowboy, meaning that Pollard will see an increase in touches and targets. Draft Pollard in round 2 of your fantasy football drafts, with the expectation that he will return round 1 value this season. ”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
“Most running backs with league-winning upside tend to be accompanied by immense risk. That’s exactly the situation with Breece Hall this season. Ranked as the RB13, Hall’s talent is evident and extraordinary. If not for his torn ACL suffered last year, Hall would be an obvious top-5 pick. The problem is we’ve seen plenty of tailbacks struggle in their first year back from that injury. And while the Jets have expressed confidence that Hall will be ready to roll in Week 1, their interest in Dalvin Cook and reportedly Ezekiel Elliott suggests they may be looking for a contingency plan at least early on. That being said, if Hall pulls off the improbable and picks up right where he left off, there’s no doubt he’ll be a part of plenty of championship teams.”
– Matt Barbato (BettingPros)
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
“If Rhamondre Stevenson experiences positive TD regression with the red zone role all but his in New England, he will build off a strong sophomore season as PFF’s 11th-highest graded rusher. It’s his backfield with little competition for touches in an offense that should be substantially better than last season. After all, the Patriots are limiting Stevenson’s practice reps because they NEED to know what they have behind him on the depth chart. But once games are on the line, Mondre will play a featured role in New England’s offense. He’s their best player on offense, and Bill Belichick knows it. Stevenson’s role in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 when he was the RB13 in points per game as the Patriots’ No. 1 RB. He finished as RB1 in 44% of his games last season…which tied Chubb for 6th-highest at the position.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
“All Najee Harris (RB11) has done in his first two years in the league is run for 1,000+ yards and score 7 TDs each year, and that was with a pretty suspect offensive line. Give him a maturing Kenny Pickett and an improved line, and the sky is the limit. His year 3 will be a breakout, and he will challenge to be in the top tier. He is their RB1 and will get all the opportunity in the ascending offense.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
“It’s Jonathan Taylor (RB6). JT’s contractual impasse is clouding his 2023 outlook and scaring away investors. But Taylor was the consensus No. 1 pick in 2022 fantasy drafts for good reason, and if he can settle his differences with the Colts, he can be the same sort of impact player he was before ankle problems thwarted his 2022 campaign. Taylor scored 32 touchdowns in his first 32 NFL games. He led the league in rushing in 2021 and averaged 127.7 yards from scrimmage per game that season. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson‘s rushing ability could spike Taylor’s efficiency a turbo boost, since defenses will have to honor the possibility of Richardson keeping the ball on RPOs and running himself. The contractual issue is a headache, but Taylor still has the sort of ceiling that few RBs can match.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
“Sometimes, as fantasy managers and football fans, teams make decisions we may disagree with. Look no further than when the Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs at 12th overall. The reaction was fierce. Yet, despite how we may feel, the Lions are telling us that they are going to use Gibbs as a result. Think of our reaction when the Jaguars signed Christian Kirk last season and then used him to be their #1 wideout. This is the same thing. Gibbs has true 55+ catch upside, and I will gladly be targeting him in late round two of my fantasy drafts.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Later-Round League-Winning Running Backs
What RB outside the top 20 in our consensus half-PPR RB ADP has the most league-winning upside?
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
“By all indications, Javonte Williams’ recovery from major knee surgery is on a best-case track. He is not on PUP in camp and is only sharing the backfield with the mundane likes of Samaje Perine. Sean Payton is already envisioning Javonte as his next iteration of prime Alvin Kamara, which should get the blood pumping to the extremities at his potential this season in Denver. Even with a return to peak form a bit into the schedule to be expected, Javonte should obliterate his RB27 ADP.”
– Bo McBrayer (FantasyPros)
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)
“Khalil Herbert is #goodatfootball. He has played eight games over the last 2 seasons when he has seen 13-plus touches. The Bears RB1 has averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) in those contests. Fantasy RB1 numbers. Had it not been for a mid-season injury, he could have EASILY taken over his backfield last season from David Montgomery (who Bears were happy to let walk). His discounted price in an ambiguous backfield is 100% worth buying into. Because if Herbert wins the RB1 job, he’s going to be a league-winner.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“I’m going to keep believing in what I see from Khalil Herbert, which is exceptional burst and contact balance. He posted six weeks as a top 25 back last season when David Montgomery was banged up, and he ranked 12th in rushing EPA on the year. Montgomery is gone, but the Bears brought in D’Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson to fill out the backfield. However, while Foreman’s best ability is his size and power, Herbert is the more talented and more complete back. Now I just hope his coaching staff is smart enough to see what they have in the third-year back.”
– Matt Barbato (BettingPros)
Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
“Cam Akers (RB22) led the NFL in rushing over the final six weeks of the 2022 regular season and ranked RB4 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. The 24-year-old Akers is now two years removed from the torn Achilles that cost him most of the 2021 season. Akers has little competition for carries, and the Rams’ 2023 schedule is chock full of teams that had below-average run defenses in 2022. Akers was a decent pass catcher during his college career at Florida State, and if he gets the same sort of usage in the passing game that Todd Gurley was getting 5-6 years ago when he was playing a workhorse role for the Rams, Akers could be a top-five fantasy RB.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“I might die alone on this hill, but Cam Akers is a steal as the 22nd running back off the board. Last year was rocky for him. However, he was the RB2 over the final four weeks, averaging 18.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Akers averaged 19 rushing attempts for 103 yards per game during those four contests while forcing a missed tackle on 22.7% of his rushing attempts. Meanwhile, the Rams have an underwhelming offense outside of Cooper Kupp. Don’t be surprised when Akers has an RB1 season in a contract year.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“I am targeting both RB 22 Cam Akers and RB 23 James Conner in all of my fantasy football league drafts. Both of these players are presently being drafted in round 5 of fantasy football league drafts. Target these players if you draft either a Tight End or Quarterback in any of your first 4 rounds of your league drafts. Both Akers and Connor are no longer shiny pennies, and I see that as an opportunity to draft either of these players at a discount. Akers is only 23 years old and in the last year of his contract. Both the Rams and Akers have an incentive to have a very productive season. James Connor can opt out of his contract at the end of this season, so there is also an incentive to run Connor as much as possible. Connor comes with a higher injury risk than Akers, so I would draft Akers over Connor if they are both on the board in round 5 of your fantasy football league drafts.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
“After emerging out of Sean McVay’s doghouse, Cam Akers was the RB4 from Week 14 through the fantasy playoffs. Akers set career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns and finished the 2022 season strong with three straight 100-yard rushing games. Akers has minimal competition for touches in what should be a bounce-back season for the Rams’ offense. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp’s return allows Akers to have league-winning upside in his contract season. ”
– Dennis Sosic (Fantasy Six Pack)
James Cook (RB – BUF)
“I’ll keep chasing James Cook’s league-winning upside even though people are starting to catch on. Cook is a talented back with second-round NFL draft capital in one of the league’s best offenses. Last season he ranked first in explosive run rate (minimum 70 carries) and 16th in yards after contact per attempt while also flashing as a receiver (per Fantasy Points Data). Among all running backs with at least 25 targets last year, he was third in target per route run rate and 12th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Talented players in high-powered offenses are the chef’s kiss. Pucker up for Cook in 2023. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“The Buffalo Bills drafted James Cook to be their featured back. He is shifty and quick and in a top 5 offense. He will take a giant step in year two and leap into the top 12. At RB30, he will be a bargain that can take teams to the promised land thanks to his pass-catching abilities.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF)
“Instead of discussing guys I have talked about ad nauseam this offseason, Alexander Mattison and De’Von Achane included, how about someone that is an injury away from the big time? While I hate to project injuries, we need to discuss Christian McCaffrey. Despite playing 17 games a year ago, how are fantasy managers so willing to trust him again after playing a combined 10 games in 2020 and 2021? Enter Elijah Mitchell, who would be a top 15 weekly play by default in this 49ers offense if CMC were to go down. For anyone interested in McCaffrey, you have to be in on Mitchell. But if you don’t have CMC, Mitchell is still a massive lottery ticket that could cash big time.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
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