The first week of the 2023 preseason is in the books. It’s time to overreact!
No, no, no. Only calm, rational reactions coming in this recap of Preseason Week 1. Swear.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Preseason Week 1 Takeaways
Here are a few position-by-position fantasy takeaways from the first week of exhibition games:
Quarterback
- Judging quarterbacks based on preseason games is generally unwise, but some mild Kenny Pickett enthusiasm is probably warranted. Pickett played 10 snaps vs. the Buccaneers and completed 6-of-7 passes for 70 yards and a touchdown — good for a 147.9 passer rating. The TD pass was good stuff, with Pickett using his eyes to manipulate a linebacker, then zipping a pass over the middle to George Pickens, who ran it in for a 33-yard score.
- Let’s get this out of the way: The highly drafted rookie quarterbacks weren’t great in their first preseason starts … but let’s not be too judgmental. Bryce Young was 4-of-6 for 21 yards and took a sack. No big plays but no major mistakes. Anthony Richardson did make a major mistake, tossing a hideous back-foot interception early on. But Richardson also threw a gorgeous pass to Alec Pierce that probably should have gone for a 34-yard touchdown but was dropped, and A-Rich gave us a small taste of his rushing potential with a run that ended with him putting his head down and trying to crush a defender’s sternum. Richardson finished 7-of-12 for 67 yards. C.J. Stroud forced a ball into coverage and was intercepted. He finished 2-of-4 for 13 yards.
- New starters Sam Howell and Jordan Love played reasonably well. Howell was 9-of-12 for 77 yards with a TD and no interceptions, plus an 8-yard run. Love was 7-of-10 for 46 yards with one TD and no interceptions. Good incompletion for Love: He just missed connecting with Christian Watson on a deep shot down the left sideline. Bad incompletion for Love: He grossly overshot a wide-open Luke Musgrave on an intermediate crosser.
Running Backs
- The Eagles’ backfield may be even messier than we thought. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott were held out of the game — while Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift both played. It’s possible the Eagles were trying to familiarize Penny and Swift with their system in a game setting. And Eagles head coach Nick Siriani told reporters after the game not to read too much into it. But Gainwell has reportedly been the primary passing-down back throughout camp. His ADP is RB59, and Gainwell looks like a value at that price. Swift could be vastly overvalued at RB24 if he isn’t playing on passing downs. Penny is reasonably priced at RB34.
- Khalil Herbert seems to be the clear chairman of the Bears’ RB committee. Or maybe it’s not really a committee at all. Herbert was on the field for all seven of Bears QB Justin Fields‘ snaps in Chicago’s preseason opener, had four carries for 15 yards, and turned a short dump-off pass into a 56-yard touchdown. D’Onta Foreman played with the backups on Chicago’s third offensive series. Rookie Roschon Johnson played behind Herbert, Foreman and even Trestan Ebner.
- Travis Etienne is the Jaguars’ undisputed lead back, but it’s possible he’ll lose the highest-value touches (goal-line carries and targets) to other backs. JaMycal Hasty got passing-down snaps with the starters in Jacksonville’s preseason opener, and Tank Bigsby got a short-yardage carry.
- The Texans held RB Dameon Pierce out of their preseason game and played newcomer Devin Singletary. That could be taken as a sign that Pierce is the clear RB1 in the Houston backfield and Singletary a mere backup.
- Fleet-footed Dolphins rookie De’Von Achane wasn’t prominently featured in his first preseason game. Miami didn’t play veterans Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, and Achane played behind Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed in the Dolphins’ preseason opener against the Falcons.
- It’s hard to make any sweeping judgments about the Minnesota backfield based on the Vikings’ preseason opener when neither Alexander Mattison nor Kene Nwangwu played, but Ty Chandler played ahead of rookie DeWayne McBride, and Chandler played well. The second-year back had 11 carries for 41 yards and four catches for 29 yards.
- Titans rookie Tyjae Spears looks like the handcuff to Derrick Henry. Spears played ahead of Hassan Haskins and looked good, rushing six times for 32 yards. Haskins had six carries for 12 yards and punched in a one-yard touchdown in the second quarter.
Wide Receivers
- Diontae Johnson played nine snaps for the Steelers, was targeted three times and had three catches for 32 yards. It was probably a good reminder that an ADP of WR33 is too harsh a punishment for his zero-TD season in 2022. Diontae’s ability to get himself open and draw targets is still extraordinary.
- It was Zay Jones, not Christian Kirk, who played with Calvin Ridley when the Jaguars’ starters lined up with two wide receivers. Kirk played in the slot in three-receiver sets. That doesn’t bode well for Kirk’s fantasy value, and it might be a sign that we shouldn’t be completely fading Jones.
- Fun reminder of how much D.J. Moore is going to help Bears QB Justin Fields: Moore’s 62-yard TD catch in the Bears’ preseason opener came on a poor throw to which Moore made a nice adjustment before turning upfield and racing through the Titans’ defense.
- It’s not yet time to make Tank Dell one of your draft targets, but keep an eye on him in the run-up to your drafts. Dell started in the Texans’ preseason opener and had five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. The Texans sat veteran WRs Robert Woods and Noah Brown, so Dell’s start might not mean much, but it was interesting that he played ahead of John Metchie in two-receiver sets along with Nico Collins. FantasyPros college football and NFL Draft analyst Thor Nystrom likes to remind me how hard Dell is for cornerbacks to cover.
- Deonte Harty was the Bills’ primary slot receiver in their season opener – not Khalil Shakir or Trent Sherfeld.
- It was a bad sign for second-year Patriots WR Tyquan Thornton that he played behind rookies Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas in a game where veterans JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne were held out.
Tight Ends
- It’s probably a good idea to drop Greg Dulcich in your TE rankings. He played behind Adam Trautman, who played for new Broncos head coach Sean Payton in New Orleans, and Dulcich was only used in two-TE sets and in obvious passing downs.
- Packers rookie TE Luke Musgrave played every snap with the Green Bay starters and was targeted on three of his 12 snaps. He only had a single catch for 8 yards, but Jordan Love overthrew a wide-open Musgrave for what should have been a nice gain. A second-round draft pick, Musgrave seems to be well ahead of third-round rookie Tucker Kraft on the Packers’ depth chart.
More of Fitz’s Fantasy Football Draft Advice
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fitz’s Perfect Draft
- Fitz’s Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
- Fitz’s Quarterback Primer
- Fitz’s Running Back Primer
- Fitz’s Wide Receiver Primer
- Fitz’s Tight End Primer
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio